Welcome back to the Closer Close-up. Last week I ranked the top 15 closers for fake baseball. I like to refer to the top 15 as GILWHAMTOO, or “Guys I Likely Won’t Have Any More Than One Of”. Saves are too unpredictable a stat to merit investing high draft picks in closers. You are better off bolstering your offense in the early rounds than taking the highly ranked closers because, as you are about to see, there are plenty of saves and plenty of upside to be had deeper in the rankings. Without further ado, let’s pick it up where I left off and rank the rest of fantasy’s save-getters.

16. Jason Motte, STL; 2011: 68 IP, 49 H, 16 BB, 17 ER, 63 K, 5 W, 9 SV, 2.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP

Jason Motte always reminds me of Mott’s applesauce, which is somewhat fitting. I’ve never met anyone who hates applesauce, but applesauce isn’t necessarily the most coveted of fruit-based desserts, either. Similarly, I would be happy to have Motte on my fantasy roster, but I’d be equally happy with the handful of closers surrounding him in the rankings.

17. Huston Street, SD; 2011: 58.1 IP, 62 H, 9 BB, 25 ER, 55 K, 1 W, 29 SV, 3.86 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

It’s within the realm of possibility that a closer this low (or lower) in the rankings could lead the league in saves, but I’m not inclined to think so in the case of Street. If he manages to stay healthy this season, it will likely happen because the Padres limited his innings and didn’t let him pitch in as many back-to-backs. Still, the move from Coors to Petco is a significant upgrade for Street, so the improved peripherals should make up for fewer saves.

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18. Sergio Santos, TOR; 2011: 63.1 IP, 41 H, 29 BB, 25 ER, 92 K, 4 W, 30 SV, 3.55 ERA, 1.11 WHIP

Ninety-two strikeouts in 63 innings is good. Twenty-nine walks and 25 earned runs in 63 innings is bad. I’m typically pretty big on high-risk, high-reward closers like Santos, but with Francisco Cordero waiting in the wings for the Blue Jays, I’m skeptical that Santos retains the ninth-inning role all season. Kenley Jansen is in a similar situation with Javy Guerra, but my ranking of Jensen assumes he is named the closer in spring training. If and when Jensen becomes the closer for the Dodgers, he should hold onto those duties for the rest of the season. We’ll get to Javy Guerra in a minute. Wasn’t this supposed to be a Sergio Santos blurb? Let’s move on.

19. Andrew Bailey, BOS; 2011: 41.2 IP, 34 H, 12 BB, 15 ER, 41 K, 0 W, 24 SV, 3.24 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

As with Huston Street, the concern with Bailey is health. Sure, Bailey could finish the season as a top-5 closer, but what you’re really paying for with the top-ranked guys in the preseason is the notion of “security”. Personally, I’m confident enough in my ability to work the waiver wire to avoid the closers at the top of the ranks and go with a handful of bargain closers. Yes, some will get hurt and others will lose their jobs, but if I strike gold on two or three closers (think Joel Hanrahan or Craig Kimbrel last season) and I nab the back-ups to one or two of the failed closers, I will still be competitive in saves. With all that said, I’m still relatively low on Bailey – Yahoo has him ranked 10th among closers – so I probably won’t own him on many teams.

19a. Javy Guerra, LAD; 2011: 46.2 IP, 37 H, 18 BB, 12 ER, 38 K, 2 W, 21 SV, 2.31 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

If Guerra wins the closer role for the Dodgers, axe Kenley Jansen from the rankings, move everyone from Hanrahan to Bailey up one spot, and slide J-War in right here at #19. Last week I had my upside blinders on and thought Jansen was a lock to be the closer in L.A., but everything I’ve heard or read since then has me currently leaning towards Guerra.

20. Jordan Walden, LAA; 2011: 60.1 IP, 49 H, 26 BB, 20 ER, 67 K, 5 W, 32 SV, 2.98 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Walden was a bit of a WHIP-killer last season, but he still tallied 32 saves and struck out more than a batter per inning. With that year of experience under his belt and an improved Angels team, he should improve on his 2011 numbers and be a nice value.

21. Joe Nathan, TEX; 2011: 44.2 IP, 38 H, 14 BB, 24 ER, 43 K, 2 W, 14 SV, 4.84 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

2011 was a statistical outlier for Joe Nathan, who has a 2.87 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP for his career. I’m not convinced what we saw last season was evidence of Nathan breaking down. The former Twin improved in the second half, where he was a perfect 11-for-11 in save chances and posted a 3.91 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Now a full season removed from elbow surgery and pitching for the Rangers, look for Nathan to bounce back towards his career averages.

22. Brandon League, SEA; 2011: 61.1 IP, 56 H, 10 BB, 19 ER, 45 K, 1 W, 37 SV, 2.79 ERA, 1.08 WHIP

I want my closers to do two things more than anything else – get saves and strike a bunch of batters out. League gets the saves, but not the Ks. You can better absorb his dearth of punch-outs if you pair him with a strikeout artist like Kimbrel or Santos.
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23. Matt Thornton, CWS; 2011: 59.2 IP, 60 H, 21 BB, 22 ER, 63 K, 2 W, 3 SV, 3.32 ERA, 1.36 WHIP

Thornton also improved after the All-Star break last season, drastically dropping his walk rate and slightly improving his K-rate between the first and second halves of 2011. Regardless, the right-handed Addison Reed looms as the young closer-in-waiting, so don’t be surprised if Thornton’s role is usurped at some point during the season.

24. Chris Perez, CLE; 2011: 59.2 IP, 46 H, 26 BB, 22 ER, 39 K, 4 W, 36 SV, 3.32 ERA, 1.21 WHIP

25. Grant Balfour, OAK; 2011: 62 IP, 44 H, 20 BB, 17 ER, 59 K, 5 W, 2 SV, 2.47 ERA, 1.03 WHIP

I’m sorry, I simply can’t rank an Australian whose name looks like “Ball Four” higher than 25th among closers. My hands are tied on this one.

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26. Kyle Farnsworth, TB; 2011: 57.2 IP, 45 H, 12 BB, 14 ER, 51 K, 5 W, 25 SV, 2.18 ERA, 0.99 WHIP

Farnsworth had a decent season as the primary closer for the Rays last season, but he still blew six saves and yielded seven saves to other Tampa Bay relievers. Come draft day, remember that Farnsworth sports a career ERA of 4.25 before you talk yourself into his 2011 numbers.

27. Jim Johnson, BAL; 2011: 91 IP, 80 H, 21 BB, 27 ER, 58 K, 6 W, 8 SV, 2.67 ERA, 1.11 WHIP

Jim-John worries me for a variety of reasons. Foremost among them is the low strikeout rate – only 5.74 K/9. The other major red flag for me is his usage last season. Ninety-one innings is a lot for a reliever and much more than any other closer in these rankings (Kimbrel’s 77 IP come closest). It’s hard to predict injuries in baseball and sometimes you just need a closer, but I’d let someone else take the risk on Johnson if possible.

28. Matt Capps, MIN; 2011: 65.2 IP, 66 H, 13 BB, 31 ER, 34 K, 4 W, 15 SV, 4.25 ERA, 1.20 WHIP

Capps was so bad last year, I’m surprised he’s getting another shot at closing. Considering the Twins’ other options are Glen Perkins and Alex Burnett, maybe I shouldn’t be surprised. Joel Zumaya is an interesting name, but after missing all of 2011 with an exploded elbow, I’m hesitant to peg him as a sleeper.

29. Frank Francisco, NYM; 2011: 50.2 IP, 49 H, 18 BB, 20 ER, 53 K, 1 W, 17 SV, 3.55 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

The K-rate is good, but even a one-hit wonder like Marky Mark could get a hit off Franky Frank. Let one of your opponents draft Francisco to their funky bunch.

30. Wilton Lopez, HOU; 2011: 71 IP, 72 H, 18 BB, 22 ER, 56 K, 2 W, 0 SV, 2.79 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

Welcome to the Wilton Hotel, home of the continental blown save. Please enjoy your stay.

The Best of the Rest

That does it for the pitchers currently considered closers on their respective teams. What other relief pitchers are worth taking a look at? I already touched on Francisco Cordero, Addison Reed, and the battle of Los Angeles between Guerra and Jansen. Daniel Bard and Mark Melancon both have a shot at saves if Bailey fails, but with Bard on the path to becoming a starter, Melancon is the safer bet. In Cleveland, Vinnie Pestano is a popular pick to eventually supplant Chris Perez, but he didn’t do anything last season to convince me he can close. Brian Fuentes and Fautino De Los Santos would both be candidates to take over the ninth inning in Oakland if Balfour doesn’t get the job done. Jon Rauch has experience closing games, so I imagine he’d be the favorite to take over for Frank Francisco if the Mets are forced to make a switch.

I mentioned Jonny Venters and Francisco Rodriguez in my piece on the top 15. Like those two, Antonio Bastardo should put up good numbers whether he’s pilfering saves from Papelbon or not. David Hernandez did fine filling in for J.J. Putz last season so if Arizona makes a change in the ninth inning, look for Hernandez to be the beneficiary. Finally, Sergio Romo will continue to put up good numbers for the Giants in the setup role, but if Brian Wilson gets hurt again, Santiago Casilla may also get a shot to close games.

As with any other season, the closer position is deep and volatile in 2012. Stay tuned to the Closer Close-up throughout the season for reliever news and rankings.

Related articles

• Closer Close-Up: The Top 15 Closers (thefakebaseball.com)
• 2012 Fantasy Baseball: Preseason Tips (thefakebaseball.com)