Closer Close-Up: The Top 15 Closers
Fake hurlers, fake batsmen, fake batswomen, lend me your ears! No, this isn’t an ear-centric Ponzi scheme. In fact, unless you have some sort of blog-reading helper robot in your employ, your ears won’t help you read this post. Is it too late to ask you to lend me your eyes instead? I suppose if you’ve read this far, the eye-lending has already occurred, so thanks!
Here in the Closer Close-up, we’ll be examining baseball’s relief pitcher panorama all season long. To kick things off… wait, that’s football. To throw out the first pitch… no, that doesn’t make sense. To start, here are the top 15 closers for 2012:
1. Craig Kimbrel, ATL; 2011: 77 IP, 48 H, 32 BB, 18 ER, 127 K, 4 W, 46 SV, 2.10 ERA, 1.04 WHIP
Remember last season when Kimbrel and Jonny Venters shared the closing role for the Braves? Oh wait, that didn’t actually happen and Kimbrel had 24 more strikeouts than the closer with the next most (Carlos Marmol with 99 Ks). I don’t typically advocate paying for saves, but in this case, I’m inclined to agree with our very own Larry Dussault and pay for Kimbrel’s otherworldly K-rate.
2. John Axford, MIL; 2011: 73.2 IP, 59 H, 25 BB, 16 ER, 86 K, 2 W, 46 SV, 1.95 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
Losing Prince Fielder’s run production will force the Brewers into more tight games, which means more save opportunities for Axford. If you’re worried about Francisco Rodriguez taking saves away from Axford, scroll up 10 centimeters and read about Jonny Venters and his 5 saves last season.
3. Jonathan Papelbon, PHI; 2011: 64.1 IP, 50 H, 10 BB, 21 ER, 87 K, 4 W, 31 SV, 2.94 ERA, 0.93 WHIP
Did you know that Jonathan Papelbon didn’t allow a single run to National League Teams last year? Did you know that Jonathan Papelbon now pitches in the National League? You say small sample size, I say big upside.
Image via Wikipedia
4. Drew Storen, WAS; 2011: 75.1 IP, 57 H, 20 BB, 23 ER, 74 K, 6 W, 43 SV, 2.75 ERA, 1.02 WHIP
Storen’s numbers don’t look especially sexy compared to some other closers, but his high usage allows him to rack up more strikeouts and makes his solid ERA and WHIP count for more in your rotisserie standings. Keep in mind that Storen doesn’t turn 25 until August, so there’s room for significant improvement on last year’s numbers.
5. Mariano Rivera, NYY; 2011: 61.1 IP, 47 H, 8 BB, 13 ER, 60 K, 1 W, 44 SV, 1.91 ERA, 0.90 WHIP
The Hammer of God continues to hammer out quality fantasy seasons with his cut fastball. Rivera never ends up on my teams because I have a bad case of no-seriously-this-is-the-year-that-Mariano-will-finally-break-down-itis. Naturally, Rivera actually got better after the All-Star break last season. So will I draft him this year? Nah, this is the year he finally breaks down.
6. Jose Valverde, DET; 2011: 72.1 IP, 52 H, 34 BB, 18 ER, 69 K, 2 W, 49 SV, 2.24 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
Last year’s saves-leader comes in at #6. Owning Valverde is a lot like owning Storen, except you trade Storen’s upside for the quality of Valverde’s team. I’ll take upside for $200, Alex.
7. Ryan Madsen, PHI; 2011: 60.2 IP, 54 H, 16 BB, 16 ER, 62 K, 4 W, 32 SV, 2.37 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
Cincinnati is 501 miles west of Philadelphia as the crow flies. According to Google Maps, the drive between those cities is 572 miles long. In 2008, Philadelphia had a population of 1.4474 millions, while Cincinnati had 333,336 residents. What does this have to do with Ryan Madsen’s move from Philly to Cincy? It’s all trivial.
8. Brian Wilson, SF; 2011: 55 IP, 50 H, 31 BB, 19 ER, 54 K, 6 W, 36 SV, 3.11 ERA, 1.47 WHIP
Fear the beard? Fear the 31 walks in 55 innings. Ignoring Wilson’s WHIP worries for a moment, he seems to have a knack for earning wins, which is a nice way of saying that the Giants have trouble scoring runs. Low run differentials make for a high number of save chances, so I expect a bit of a bounce-back for Wilson.
9. J.J. Putz, ARI; 2011: 58 IP, 41 H, 12 BB, 14 ER, 61 K, 2 W, 45 SV, 2.17 ERA, 0.91 WHIP
Staying healthy has been Putz’s primary problem so far in his career, but in 2011, he gave up only one run on the road and only 2 runs after the All-Star break. Both of those numbers are likely to regress in 2012, so temper your exputztations.
10. Heath Bell, MIA; 2011: 62.2 IP, 51 H, 21 BB, 17 ER, 51 K, 3 W, 43 SV, 2.44 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
Unlike Madsen’s move from the Bank to Great American Ballpark, Bell’s move away from Petco is a serious downgrade. Even in the spacious confines of Petco, Bell’s K-rate took a major nose-dive last season. Am I in China? What’s with all these red flags?
11. Kenley Jansen, LAD; 2011: 53.2 IP, 30 H, 26 BB, 17 ER, 96 K, 2 W, 5 SV, 2.85 ERA, 1.04 WHIP
If you’re searching for a candidate to have a Kimbrel-esque breakout this season, look no further than Kenley Jansen. Jansen struck out more batters per inning than Kimbrel last season and did well in the limited save chances he was given, going 4-for-4 in the second half. The elephant in the room is Javy Guerra, who will be competing with Jansen for the Dodgers’ closer role in spring training. Keep an eye on this situation, but I expect Jansen’s talent to win out.
12. Joel Hanrahan, PIT; 2011: 68.2 IP, 56 H, 16 BB, 14 ER, 61 K, 1 W, 40 SV, 1.83 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
Nearly everything went right for the Pirates last season and Joel Hanrahan enjoyed some of the spoils. His 2011 xFIP was 2.98, so we can expect his ERA to increase in 2012. With that said, a two-point-something ERA along with numbers similar to those from 2011 would still be a fine fantasy season.
13. Carlos Marmol, CHC; 2011: 74 IP, 54 H, 48 BB, 33 ER, 99 K, 2 W, 34 SV, 4.01 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
This is the point in the rankings where you start taking on risks in your quest for saves. In the case of Marmol, it’s less of a risk and more of a straight-up fault – the guy just walks too many batters. So how does a WHIP-killer like Marmol crack the top-15? He strikes out a ton of batters, of course! Marmol’s 3.54 FIP last season would lead you to believe he got a little unlucky last season and you’d be right – he was unlucky to have Starlin Castro butchering groundballs at shortstop all season. Well, Starlin and his lobster-hands are still there in Chicago, so don’t expect a big-time ERA correction. Regardless, the Ks will be there and Marmol’s job is relatively safe, so draft him with confidence and be prepared to make up for his WHIP with your other pitchers.
14. Rafael Betancourt, COL; 2011: 62.2 IP, 46 H, 8 BB ,20 ER, 73 K, 2 W, 8 SV, 2.89 ERA, 0.87 WHIP
Prior to 2011, Betancourt was the type of reliever who excelled in a setup role, but always seemed to implode when he got a shot at closing. He seemed to figure it out in the second half of last season, going 8-for-9 in save opportunities while being virtually unhittable (0.33 ERA, 0.30 WHIP, 0.080 BAA). Over the entire season, Betancourt only walked 8 batters. With Huston Street out of the picture in Colorado, I’m pegging Betancourt for a breakout along the lines of what Ryan Madsen did last year.
15. Joakim Soria, KC; 2011: 60.1 IP, 60 H, 17 BB, 27 ER, 60 K, 5 W, 28 SV, 4.03 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
If enough managers are scared off by Soria’s horrendous 2011 season, I could see myself drafting him in hopes of a bounce-back, but I’m pretty sure that someone in each of my leagues will be higher on Soria than I am.
In case you can’t read Arabic numerals, that does it for the top-15 closers. Join me next week, for the rest of the league’s closers and some notes on the most relevant setup men. Thanks for reading and feel free to shoot me questions in the comments or on Twitter @gregsauce.
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- Closer Close-Up: The Top 15 Closers (thefakebaseball.com)
