Draft Strategy: Win your H2H league With Hitting

Most fantasy sites stress the importance of drafting hitters early in your draft in order to build a strong foundation that can withstand injuries and slumps. This is fine advice, but since pretty much everyone in your league will adopt this strategy, you’ll have to take it one step further if you intend to truly dominate hitting categories in your H2H league.  So how do you approach your draft so that you maximize offensive production without completely punting the pitching categories? I’m glad you asked.

The following strategy will work best in leagues that use only “P” spots (since you won’t be required to fill SP slots) and leagues that count holds, although it can work fine in a standard 5×5 league with SP, RP, and P slots as well.

Lance Berkman

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1)      Draft hitting, hitting, and more hitting.Your goal is to dominate every category, so obviously you need to stay balanced. In this strategy, players who produce across the board are great investments, but obviously they dry up pretty quickly, so target them early. You want to keep an eye on batting average, so avoid players who are a total drain on that category. A loose framework that can help ensure your team is strong and balanced offensively is to split your lineup into three equal parts (3-4 players who fit each profile):

a.       Studs – these are your elite guys, typically middle of the order hitters who are good bets to score and drive in 100 runs, offering 20+ HR and a good batting average. Squeezing some steals into this category is a nice bonus. You know who these guys are.

b.      Players who contribute HR/RBI – these are the guys who buoy your power numbers. They may not score or drive in 100, but you should feel comfortable penciling them in for at least 20/80. Examples: Paul Konerko, Lance Berkman, Michael Morse, David Ortiz, Corey Hart, Billy Butler, Adam Lind, Adam Jones, Freddie Freeman, Michael Cuddyer, Nick Swisher, Jason Kubel, Carlos Lee

c.       Players who contribute R/SB – these are typically top of the order guys who get on base at a good clip and have at least decent speed. Ideally they will play for good offenses (or at least hit in front of stud hitters) which will help the runs steam in. If they can boost your batting average in the process, that’s even more valuable. Examples: Ichiro Suzuki, Jimmy Rollins, Brett Gardner, Howie Kendrick, Derek Jeter, Cameron Maybin, Emilio Bonifacio, Erick Aybar, Angel Pagan, Jemile Weeks, Michael Brantley

If you fill these three categories evenly you should be strong and balanced, capable of dominating each and every hitting category.

2)      Forget about starting pitchers.  The only categories that starting pitchers are essential for are Ws and Ks (because of the volume of innings they give you). But in order to draft good starting pitching, you need to spend valuable draft picks in the early-to-middle rounds. Forget about SPs. For the sake of your draft, they don’t exist. Wow, that’s a pretty liberating feeling isn’t it? You just cut out about 1/3 of all of the players on your draft board, (assuming an average of 7 SPs drafted per team out of a 21 round draft).

Mariano Rivera

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3)      Grab three good closers. In order for this strategy to work, you’ll want to build a pitching staff that puts up elite ratios and plenty of saves. The beautiful thing about closers is that the good ones give you just that, and most are available in the middle rounds.  Don’t worry about being the first person to grab a closer, but make sure you aren’t caught at the end of the first closer run either. Go into your draft with your top 15-18 closers broken into tiers, with ratios taking precedent over projected save totals (which can be fluky). Drafting three closers from this group should ensure that you are at least competitive in saves, and have a strong foundation for your ratios. Don’t be afraid to grab some lower end closers in the late rounds as well.

4)      Target elite setup men and closers-in-waiting. In leagues that don’t count holds, these guys will be available late in your draft. Elite setup men and closers-in-waiting tend to be overlooked and undervalued, but for this strategy they are ideal. Guys like Mike Adams, Johnny Venters, Dave Robertson, and Tyler Clippard offer microscopic ERA and WHIP. Building a “rotation” of these guys will give you a great shot to win the ratios each week. Closers-in-waiting make great picks as well. Look for closers who are on thin ice and have other talented relievers ready to take the reigns if they stumble. Grab the “backup” and reap the benefits – solid ratios and possible saves down the line.

5)      Grab SP-eligible relievers. If your league uses SP slots, you’re going to need to fill those spots in order to get over the innings minimums that most h2h leagues have in place, as well as to counteract any possible implosions from your relievers.  There are always a handful of SP-eligible relievers out there, but they may not become apparent until spring training starts and rotations shake out. SP-eligible relievers from past seasons have tended to be young pitchers who come up through the minors as starters but start out in the bullpen in the majors, or starting pitchers who struggle to get deep into games and are more successful in short appearances. Hopefully your draft will be closer to the start of the season, so you will have a chance to read up on which pitchers are likely to make the starting rotation and which will come out of the pen.

Here is a sample team that could be attained using this strategy, drafting from the 3 spot (12 team league). I based all of these draft picks on the current ADPs on mockdraftcentral.com:

C – Jesus Montero (13.3)

1B – Albert Pujols (1.3)

2B – Ian Kinsler (2.10)

3B – David Wright (3.3)

SS – Asdrubal Cabrera (6.10)

OF – Nelson Cruz (4.10)

OF – Desmond Jennings (5.3)

OF – Adam Jones (7.3)

UTIL – David Ortiz (9.3)

BENCH – Adam Lind (12.10), Emilio Bonifacio (15.3), Carlos Lee (17.3), Devin Mesoraco (21.3)

P – Mariano Rivera (8.10)

P – Jose Valverde (10.10)

P – Heath Bell (11.3)

P – Joakim Soria (14.10)

P – Huston Street (16.10)

P – Francisco Rodriguez (18.10)

P – Phil Hughes (possible SP-eligible RP – 19.3)

BENCH  – Sean Marshall (20.10)

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4 Comments

  1. Justin Bock says:

    Hey Mike: I found this article via fantasyrundown.com and am liking the reads.
    I’d like your opinion on a draft strategy for my team this year if you have the time… It’s a competitive 14 team mixer with keepers. Keepers on my team are R. Weeks 12rd, B. Harper 17th, Trout 18th, and J. Montero 19th…. Secondly, I have (3) first rounders 3rd, 12th and 14th. No 2nd rd or 4th rd.
    After reading a few of your draft strategies ie winning with hitting/pitching and pre season preparation, I would like to know which route you would take in my situation.
    Thank you in advance.

    -Justin

  2. Mike Baum says:

    Justin- Do you have a sense of what players will be available in the draft this year? With three first round picks you have the potential to get three very good cornerstone pieces for either strategy. Without knowing anything else about your settings or who the other teams are keeping, I’d lean towards going hitter heavy thought, since you aren’t keeping any pitchers and the hitting strategy is a little easier to pull off with limited picks.

    • Justin says:

      I do and the league rules have just been set for the year and there will be an 18 inning minimum per week! With that in mind, do I use the third 1st rd. pick on a guy like Kershaw and use your strategy the rest of the way?

  3. Mike Baum says:

    For anyone thinking about employing this strategy – I just stumbled across this article on fangraphs.com that highlights some SP eligible relievers to target: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/relief-pitchers-with-starter-eligilbity/

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