The Longball (Daily GPP Plays): September 21st, 2016
September 21, 2016 | Doug Shain
Hello and welcome to the Longball for September 21, 2016.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
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|1) Matt Moore (SF/LHP) @ Los Angeles Dodgers: $8.2 FD; $7.9 DK||Atlanta Braves @ Bartolo Colon (NYM/RHP)||Fanduel: Masahiro Tanaka ($9300), Tyler Flowers ($2800), Freddie Freeman ($3900), Brian Dozier ($4200), Adonis Garcia ($2800), JJ Hardy ($2200), Adam Jones ($3500), Robbie Grossman ($2900), Justin Upton ($3300)|
|2) Zack Greinke (ARI/RHP) @ San Diego Padres: $9.7 FD; $8.3 DK||Baltimore Orioles vs Clay Buchholz (BOS/RHP)||Draft Kings: Matt Moore ($7900, Zack Greinke ($8300), Wilson Ramos ($3600), Freddie Freeman ($4800), Trea Turner ($5500), Jung Ho Kng ($4200), Dansby Swanson ($2700), Matt Kemp ($4300), Nick Markakis ($4600), Robbie Grossman ($4100)|
|3) Chad Kuhl (PIT/RHP) @ Milwaukee Brewers: $7.0 FD; $6.2 DK||Minnesota Twins vs Buck Farmer (DET/RHP)||Fantasy Draft: Masahiro Tanaka ($21600), Matt Moore ($15200), JJ Hardy ($6800), Freddie Freeman ($9200), Dansby Swanson ($5200), Justin Upton ($8100), Robbie Grossman ($8000), Adam Jones ($9600), Anthony Rendon ($6600), Manny Machado ($9600)|
|4) Masahiro Tanaka (NYY/RHP) @ Tampa Bay Rays: $9.3 FD; $11.3 DK||Washington Nationals @ Tom Koehler (MIA/RHP)||Bonus “Doug is crazy” DK lineup: Chris Sale ($14000), Max Scherzer ($13300), Salvador Perez ($2500), Eric Hosmer ($3300), Christian Colon ($2100), Anthony Rendon ($3400), Dansby Swanson ($2700), Billy Burns ($2200), Avisail Garcia ($3000), Kendrys Morales ($3200)|
|5) Max Scherzer (WSH/RHP) @ Miami Marlins: $11.1 FD; $13.3 DK|
|Other pitchers to consider: Chris Sale||Other stacks to consider: Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels||Lineup Notes:
– I don’t love that bonus lineup but I wanted to see if I could pull off a Sale/Scherzer team. The success of this team is totally predicated on the performance of KC against Corey Kluber.
Use your lefties against the Dodgers. They are really bad against LHP and Matt Moore has already seen a great deal of success in this matchup this year. The last time he pitched at Dodger Stadium, Moore took a no-hitter into the 9th inning. I don’t expect that to happen again today but he should still put up a good performance against this lefty heavy Dodgers team. Moore has only had one bad start in his last five outing and that was a game at Coors. His price is really nice and allows you to get the bats you want while still maintaining upside.
I don’t love Greinke on FD but his price on DK is outstanding. While he hasn’t pitched like the $13.0k-priced Greinke of last year, he doesn’t have to at $8.3k. I love a Greinke/Moore combo on DK. They’ve both got very good matchups and their prices allow you to go heavy on bats (all the ATL you can handle). Greinke has been pretty gross over his last 10 games but his best start was a 7IP/2ER/8K performance at San Diego. I expect a similar type of game tonight against a Padres team that just can’t hit anyone.
It would not be a stretch to say that Chad Kuhl’s best day as a pro was against the Brewers in Milwaukee (6.1IP/2ER/5K) in a game that his bullpen blew for him late. All RHP pitch their best games against the Brewers. I don’t love that the game is in MIL but I’ve seen enough of the Brewers against RHP this year to know that it doesn’t really matter where the game is, it just matters that the pitcher throws with his right hand. I wouldn’t say I’m all in on this pick but if I want to save on pitcher then Kuhl has the matchup I want. He’s a perfect guy to pair with Scherzer or Sale on DK.
You know what really stinks? A top flight pitcher going seven strong innings and NOT RECORDING EVEN ONE SINGLE STIKEOUT, and then the bullpen blows the win! Yes, that’s what we dealt with the last time Masahiro Tanaka was on the mound. I’m going to call that an anomaly and trust what I’ve seen from him the rest of the year. He leads the AL in ERA, he’s a strikeout per inning guy, and he dominates the Rays (28.2IP/7ER/29K/1BB). I think he’ll dominate again today and is a very safe play with a ton of upside if he can just rear back and strike a guy out (which he can and will).
Did you see what Jose Fernandez did to the Nationals last night? That’s what Max Scherzer is going to do to the Marlins tonight. Over his last 10 games Scherzer has averaged 7IP/8K/2ER…averaged! That’s what I’d use as his floor tonight. His upside is 12+K and a shutout. It’s rare I go into a matchup looking for a shutout but it is well within the range of possibilities tonight. His price is a tough pill to swallow but his upside makes him worth it.
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Do you know how I know that the Braves are awesome to stack against RHP? They scored five runs yesterday and I had to restrain myself from using the word “only” to describe their output. Atlanta hits righties. Say it with me: Atlanta hits righties. The answer to any question, always, is stack Atlanta. I’m going with Kemp, Freeman, Swanson, and Markakis. If you want to shake things up a bit then you could always use Adonis Garcia over Kemp or Markakis (or you could stack five deep on DK).
I hate using the Orioles. They are like the second coming of the Astros. It seems like they never come through in a solid matchup. That said, this is a great matchup and we must trust the process. The process says to trust Baltimore tonight. They hit Buccholz well and this season Clay has given up 8 runs in only 11 innings against the Orioles. I’m going to roll out Manny Machado, JJ Hardy, Chris Davis, and Adam Jones for my stack. Hardy is a great, cheap play tonight that combines his solid BvP and current hot hitting into a formidable batter.
One of my favorite things to do in DFS is to stack against the incomparable Buck Farmer. He’s got a high ERA, terrible K to BB ratio, and poor K/9. None of these things are good when you’re going to MIN to face the powerful Twins. I know that MIN is not a great overall offense but they can sure put up a lot of runs in the right situation. This is one of those situations. I’ll go with Brian Dozier, Robbie Grossman, Byron Buxton, and Jorge Polanco for my stack today. I particularly like Robbie Grossman in this matchup.
It’s amazing what the Nationals have been able to do this year with the reigning NL MVP, Bryce Harper, playing like such garbage (due to an injury). Today’s matchup against Tom Koehler is one of those games where I may end up using Harper even with his slump because of how solid his BvP is (.345 BA, 6 HR in 29 AB). Koehler has improved a lot over the course of this season but I just trust the Nationals bats a little more than I do Koehler’s improved pitching. I’m looking at Ramos, Turner, Harper, and Rendon for this one. If you don’t trust Harper then I might consider using Werth instead.
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Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.