The Longball (Daily GPP Plays): September 22nd, 2016
September 22, 2016 | Doug Shain
Hello and welcome to the Longball for September 22, 2016.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
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|1) Seth Lugo (NYM/RHP) vs Philadelphia Phillies: $7.7 FD; $6.7 DK||Atlanta Braves @ Jose Urena (MIA/RHP)||Fanduel: Seth Lugo ($7700), Gary Sanchez ($4100), Carlos Santana ($4200), TJ Rivera ($2800), Adonis Garcia ($3100), Asdrubal Cabrera ($3100), Yoenis Cespedes ($3700), Nick Markakis ($2500), Matt Kemp ($3600)|
|2) Ervin Santana (MIN/RHP) vs Detroit Tigers: $7.7 FD; $9.0 DK||New York Mets vs Adam Morgan (PHI/LHP)||Draft Kings: Seth Lugo ($6700), Ryan Vogelsong ($4000), Gary Sanchez ($4900), Freddie Freeman ($5400), DJ LeMahieu ($4600), Adonis Garcia ($4500), Asdrubal Cabrera ($4600), Yoenis Cespedes ($5100), Nick Markakis ($5300), Matt Kemp ($4800)|
|3) Ryan Vogelsong (PIT/RHP) @ Milwaukee Brewers: $6.0 FD; $4.0 DK||Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tyler Chatwood (COL/RHP)||Fantasy Draft: Seth Lugo ($13200), Ervin Santana ($17400), Freddie Freeman ($10400), Dansby Swanson ($6400), Gary Sanchez ($9600), Nick Markakis ($10400), Yoenis Cespedes ($9900), Mark Trumbo ($7600), Asdrubal Cabrera ($8800), TJ Rivera ($6000)|
|4) Jeff Samardzija (SF/RHP) @ San Diego Padres: $9.1 FD; $9.5 DK||Cleveland Indians vs Jason Vargas (KC/RHP)|
|5) Mike Fiers (HOU/RHP) vs Los Angeles Angels: $7.3 FD; $5.6 DK|
|Other pitchers to consider: Christian Friedrich, Justin Verlander, Ricky Nolasco||Other stacks to consider: Baltimore Orioles, Colorado Rockies, Pittsburgh Pirates, New York Yankees||Lineup Notes:
– I’m keeping it real simple with these lineups today. I’m going to use the same group of players (Braves, Mets, Lugo, and Gary Sanchez) and not get too cute.
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Do you realize how good Seth Lugo has been since he has been starting for the Mets? In his six starts he has posted a 2.21 ERA with 23K in 36.2 innings pitched. Yes, the strikeouts are really low but so are the earned runs. Using today’s prices he has hit 2.5x value on DK and 4x value on FD in four of his six starts even without the high K-rate. I don’t care that Philly rocked Chris Sale yesterday, they’re not good. Lugo doesn’t make a ton of mistakes and that will help keep runs off the board. I think the Mets give him some run support so if we can get to a quality start (6IP/3ER) he should be able to hit that value once again tonight.
It’s really scary to trust Ervin Santana (I feel double the fear as I’m using him in my season long playoffs as well) but he’s been excellent over the past couple of months. He’s always been a talented pitcher but the results haven’t been there for years. Something clicked a while back and now he’s one of the most productive pitchers in the American League. Over his last 10 starts he’s got a 2.57 ERA with more than a strikeout per inning. When you stop and realize that the AL leader in ERA is over 3.00, you start to really appreciate how well Santana has been pitching. Historically he’s been bad against the Tigers but this year he’s got a 1.50 ERA in two starts. I prefer him on FD because he’s a much better value and I’d rather use the safety of Samardzija against SD at the same price point on DK.
Ryan Vogelsong has had 4 terrible starts since his last good start. That good start came on August 26. Do you want to guess who that came against? If you said the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park, congratulations, you’ve clearly read my article before. Look, the Brewers are terrible against RHP and they proved it once against last night when Chad Kuhl had his best game as a major league pitcher (6IP/6K/1ER). His previous best game? August 25 at Milwaukee. I see a pattern here. I know that Vogelsong is a bad pitcher but at $4.0k on DK I’m willing to take that shot in this most awesome of matchups. I think we should all be very proud of my self-control in putting him at #3 instead of #1.
We are at that point in the season where Jeff Samardzija is one of the safest pitchers on a slate. I hate Samardzija but you can’t deny the solid matchup he’s got against the Padres. I know they recently hit him pretty well (6IP/4ER) but Shark still managed to get 6K in that game and I do like the upside he brings there. SD was handled by Zack Greinke last night (6IP/2ER/7K) and I think we can expect a similar result here from Samardzija, maybe closer to 6IP/2ER/5K. That’s not elite but for under $10k you can’t really expect too much more.
I feel gross recommending Mike Fiers tonight. He’s been so bad this year but he’s actually been pretty good in 9 of his last 10 starts. I won’t use him on FD because I need to much of a return for him to meet his value but I’ll take a flier on DK with him as he’s hit 14 DK points (my target for him) in 6 of his last 10 outings (and he was within a couple of points of that two more times). Those aren’t exciting numbers but value is value and Fiers has been consistent as of late. The Angels, after a brief hot streak, have come back to Earth so that will help him as well. Just know that your upside is limited here but your floor is reasonable given his low cost.
I sound like a broken record, but seriously, always stack Atlanta. They only put up four runs yesterday but that was against one of the best pitchers in the NL (yes, Bartolo Colon is in the Cy Young discussion). Jose Urena is no Bartolo Colon. He got absolutely blasted in his last game and gave up 3 ER to the Braves in 1 inning in his only appearance against them on the season. I’m going to stick with the hot offense here against a pitcher that might be running out of gas. Let’s go with Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis, Dansby Swanson, and Matt Kemp.
The Mets are in the thick of the wild card race and they get a fabulous home matchup today against Adam Morgan. If you only look at the runs he’s given up over his last ten starts, it looks like he’s been pitching well but then you see that he’s only averaging 4.5 innings per start and you begin to realize that he’s really not been all that good at all (4.34 ERA over his last 10). He’s faced the Mets once this year and they got to him for 6 earned runs in 5 innings. I can see a similar output for them again today. My stack is going to consist of Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, and TJ Rivera. I’d be inclined to start Travis d’Arnaud or Juan Lagares if either of them get into the lineup.
The Dodgers at home against a righty? Yeah, I’m all over that. LA is real close to clinching this division and they’re going to be out for blood tonight. They put a real big hurt on Matt Moore yesterday and I can see that rolling over into tonight’s game. On the season Chatwood has given up an average of 4 earned runs per game to the Dodgers. I like that as a low end number this evening. I will be stacking Justin Turner, Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, and Adrian Gonzalez. If you don’t like any other catchers on the slate then I’d have no issue using Yasmani Grandal either.
Jason Vargas is one of the worst pitchers I have ever seen pitch at the major league level. He’s Chris Young levels of bad. He’s making his second start of the year after coming back from Tommy John surgery and I don’t like his chances for a good outing tonight. This could be his 20th start of the year and I wouldn’t like his chances against the Indians. Let’s roll out Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Lonnie Chisenhall, and Jose Ramirez in this one.
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Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.