The Longball (Daily GPP Plays): September 23rd, 2016
September 23, 2016 | Doug Shain
Hello and welcome to the Longball for September 23, 2016.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
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|1) Anthony DeSclafani (CIN/RHP) @ Milwaukee Brewers: $8.0 FD; $11.2 DK||Atlanta Braves @ Andrew Cashner (MIA/RHP)||Fanduel: Anthony DeSclafani ($8000), Tyler Flowers ($2800), Chris Davis ($3600), Logan Forsythe ($3000), Evan Longoria ($3600), Asdrubal Cabrera ($3200), Matt Kemp ($3900), Sean Rodriguez ($3500), Andrew McCutchen ($3400)|
|2) Chris Archer (TB/RHP) vs Boston Red Sox: $9.6 FD; $8.9 DK||Pittsburgh Pirates vs Gio Gonzalez (WSH/LHP)||Draft Kings: Gabriel Ynoa ($4300), Chris Archer ($8900), Nick Hundley ($3800), Freddie Freeman ($5400), Logan Forsythe ($4500), Evan Longoria ($5000), Sean Rodriguez ($4300), Nick Markakis ($4700), Matt Kemp ($4500), Andrew McCutchen ($4600)|
|3) Jon Gray (COL/RHP) @ Los Angeles Dodgers: $8.4 FD; $10.5 DK||Tampa Bay Rays vs Drew Pomeranz (BOS/LHP)||Fantasy Draft: Chris Archer ($17200), Anthony DeSclafani ($21600), Sean Rodriguez ($8400), Freddie Freeman ($10400), Cameron Rupp ($6000), Josh Bell ($6000), Andrew McCutchen ($8800), Matt Kemp ($8700), Dansby Swanson ($6400), Trey Mancini ($6400)|
|4) Gabriel Ynoa (NYM/RHP) vs Philadelphia Phillies: $7.0 FD; $4.3 DK||Baltimore Orioles vs Shelby Miller (ARI/RHP)|
|5) James Paxton (SEA/LHP) @ Minnesota Twins: $7.3 FD; $8.4 DK|
|Other pitchers to consider: Cole Hamels, Francisco Liriano, Matt Wisler||Other stacks to consider: Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros||Lineup Notes:
– I would run the same FD lineup with Gray/Bell over DeSclafani/Davis if I was using multiple lineups.
– I know I said that using Mancini was getting cute, but nobody has ever accused me of not getting cute with my lineups
I joked on Twitter last night that all my article was going to say today was “DeSclafani and the Braves. See you Saturday.” Then I wussed out because I love the sweet smell of a freshly cut paycheck. Seriously though, how could you not have DeSclafani as your top pitching play today? His price on FD is out of control awesome given his ability and amazing matchup. What matchup is that, you ask? Yeah, that would be matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers. I don’t know if you know this, but MIL is awful against RHP. Here are two fun stats: MIL has a .240 BA and a 29% K-rate against RHP. They just whiffed seven times in only four innings to Ryan fricking Vogelsong! For his part, DeSclafani went 6IP/3ER/8K in his only start against the Brewers this year. They’re worse now than when he last faced them. On FD this is such an easy play that I wouldn’t even consider anyone else outside of him and Jon Gray (also a huge bargain). On DK I’d think a little longer but if you can trust your ability to find value elsewhere I’d be using him there, too.
At The Trop, Chris Archer has been the guy we expected him to be all year; it’s his road stats that made him look bad. Look at his home averages: 7IP/8K with an ERA of 2.63 and only 9 HR allowed in 15 starts. The AL ERA leader is sitting around 3.00, so that 2.63 is mega-elite stuff. I don’t care that he’s facing a great Boston offense. I’m going to take my shot on a guy who is pitching lights out at home at a discount price. His most recent home start against Boston was 5IP/1ER/6K…in a loss. That loss isn’t happening today as Tampa is going to hit the dickens out of the ball against Drew Pomeranz. He, not DeSclafani, is my top play on DK (though if I could find a way to pair them I’d be in heaven).
I swear to you that my love of Jon Gray today has nothing to do with his 16K performance his last time out. That was against SD and he absolutely dominates SD at Petco Park. This recommendation has to do with the fact that Jon Gray is starting to learn how to be an Ace pitcher. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s crushed the Dodgers in his four starts against them this year; 3.27 ERA with an 11.45 K/9. I know that the Dodger offense is improved as of late but since August first Gray has faced them twice and combined for 11IP/0ER/14K…and both of those starts came at Coors! This game is at Dodger Stadium and that’s much more pitcher friendly. I wish there was a way to use both he and DeSclafani on FD because they are both amazing bargains. If I did more than one lineup I’d make sure to have each of these guys in there.
Gabriel Ynoa is working under what I’ll refer to as “the Ryan Vogelsong Corollary.” The Ryan Vogelsong Corollary says that it’s ok to start a bad pitcher if he’s hella cheap, facing a bad offense, and you have realistic expectations. I don’t like Ynoa on FD but on DK he’s a great complement to a pitcher like DeSclafani or Gray at his $4.3k price tag. I mean, what does he really need to do to hit value? I’m looking for 12 DK points out of the guy. Last night when the aforementioned Vogelsong went 4IP/2ER/7K he amassed over 17 DK points. Philly is not a good offense (pluckiness aside) and Ynoa has been very impressive in his short time in Queens. He’s shown a strikeout per inning upside and in his last start he struck out 8 batters in under 5 innings. I don’t know if we should expect that level of production today but if he can go 5IP/5K we are definitely in business. That is a reasonable expectation against the Phillies.
I’m scared to death to use James Paxton tonight but there are a few things going in his favor. The first is that MIN is coming off a double header and they really have no reason to play guys who may need a rest. This is a team going nowhere so it wouldn’t shock me to see Dozier and friends riding the pine. Second of all, Paxton has incredible strikeout upside. MIN strikes out a lot and if Paxton gets rolling he could be looking at a game of 6IP/8K or something in that range. That’s the upside I’m shooting for with a guy in Paxton’s price range. I’m not going heavy on Paxton but he’s a player you can use if you’re going to have multiple lineups and want to vary your pitchers from roster to roster.
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Do I really need to write anything more about why I’m stacking the Atlanta Braves? I suppose I may have some new readers and it’s only fair that they hear the same spiel my regulars have heard. ATL crushes it against RHP. They’ve crushed top RHP and they’ve crushed journeymen RHP. If a pitcher throws with his right hand, you stack ATL against them. They’ve been one of the best offenses in baseball since Matt Kemp made his way to town. I’m going to keep using them until they stop forcing readers to send me screen captures of their big wins thanks to them (please keep sending pics of those big wins to @bankster17 on Twitter). I’m going with my same roster of Braves: Freeman, Kemp, Markakis, and Garcia. If Dansby Swanson is in the lineup tonight then he is a suitable addition or replacement in this lineup.
Gio Gonzalez is a pretty terrible pitcher. He’s been smacked around quite a bit this year. He presents a really nice matchup for a Pittsburgh team that is hitting the ball like nuts right now; 55 runs scored in their last 7 games. Forget last night’s stumble, Chase Anderson has been pitching very well. I could see them putting up a huge game as they continue their offensive surge. I’m going to go with Andrew McCutchen, Sean Rodriguez, Josh Bell, and Jung Ho Kang for my stack. Rodriguez and McCutchen are two of the hottest hitters in baseball and I don’t see that stopping tonight.
Tampa Bay an offensive powerhouse right now having scored 5 or more runs in seven of their last nine games. Drew Pomeranz is so very bad. It just so happens that Pomeranz is a lefty and TB just happens to smash lefties. This is like a GPP match made in heaven. In fairness, Pomeranz has pitched very well against TB this year but that was before this recent tear of theirs and before his recent run of awful starts. For the Rays I’m going with Forsythe, Longoria, Miller, and Dickerson. I know we’ve got some lefty on lefty violence going on there but I think we get to the bullpen quickly tonight and that puts Miller and Dickerson very much in play. Their HR upside is too great to bench at this point.
It’s almost sad to keep picking on Shelby Miller like this. Remember when ARI traded Dansby Swanson for him? That was one of the worst decisions any team made in the last year. All Miller has provided to the D’backs is a 6.87 ERA and a trip to the minors. Since his callup, he’s been as bad as he was before he was sent down. BAL is right in the thick of the playoff hunt and they’re going to continue to roll tonight. I’m going with Chris Davis, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, and Adam Jones. I also like Pedro Alvarez and Matt Wieters in this matchup and would use them with no hesitation if that’s what fit my lineup. If you want to get cute, Trey Mancini has HR’d in each of his first two major league games…but understand that’s being very cute.
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Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.