The Longball (Daily GPP Plays): September 24th, 2016 September 24, 2016  |  Doug Shain


Ariel Miranda

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The Longball

Hello and welcome to the Longball for September 24, 2016.

Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!

 

Pitchers Bats Sample Lineups
1) Ariel Miranda (SEA/LHP) @ Minnesota Twins: $6.8 FD; $7.5 DK New York Mets vs Alec Asher (PHI/RHP) Fanduel: Dan Straily ($7400), Yasmani Grandal ($3000), Paul Goldschmidt ($3400), Brandon Phillips ($3100), Maikel Franco ($2800), Corey Seager ($4100), Yoenis Cespedes ($3700), Nelson Cruz ($3800), Curtis Granderson ($3500)
2) Dan Straily (CIN/RHP) @ Milwaukee Brewers: $7.4 FD; $9.2 DK Philadelphia Phillies @ Sean Gilmartin (NYM/LHP) Draft Kings: Wei-Yin Chen ($5500), Madison Bumgarner ($13400), Yasmani Grandal ($3300), Tommy Joseph ($4100), TJ Rivera ($3400), Maikel Franco ($3300), Sean Rodriguez ($3900), Yoenis Cespedes ($4800), Curtis Granderson ($4700), Jose Peraza ($3600)
3) Wei-Yin Chen (MIA/LHP) vs Atlanta Braves: $8.0 FD; $5.5 DK Seattle Mariners @ Tyler Duffey (MIN/RHP) Fantasy Draft: Dan Straily ($17600), Ariel Miranda ($15000), Tommy Joseph ($8000), Jose Peraza ($7200), Trea Turner ($10200), Yoenis Cespedes ($9300), Yasmany Tomas ($8800), Andrew McCutchen ($9200), Yasmani Grandal ($6600), Sean Rodriguez ($7800)
4) Robbie Ray (ARI/LHP) @ Baltimore Orioles: $8.2 FD; $8.3 DK Arizona Diamondbacks @ Wade Miley (BAL/LHP)
5) Madison Bumgarner (SF/LHP) @ San Diego Padres: $11.0 FD; $13.4 DK  
Other pitchers to consider: Clayton Kershaw, Ivan Nova Other stacks to consider: Los Angeles Dodgers, Cincinnati Reds Lineup Notes:

 

 

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Pitchers:

Did you see what James Paxton did last night in Minnesota? Ariel Miranda is better than James Paxton. The kid is 5-1 with a 3.38 ERA and about 7 strikeouts per nine innings. He maybe doesn’t have the upside of Paxton but he also doesn’t have the downside. MIN is pretty much toast for the rest of this year so I have no issue rolling this kid out at his low price and seeing what he can do. He’s actually not my top pitcher on either site but he’s high up my list on both of the main sites. I love pairing him with Dan Straily on 2 pitcher sites because it gives you a nice upside/safety combination while still leaving room for bats (see my Fantasy Draft lineup for how that works).

Speaking of Straily, he drew the long straw tonight and gets the plum matchup in MIL. I know that the Brewers had a decent night last night against Anthony DeSclafani but he was chugging along until the 7th inning (6IP/4K/1ER) when he was sent back out to get hit hard (4 runs in that inning without recording an out). If managers used their pitchers correctly our success rate of RHP against MIL since Aug 1 would be well over 90% (stupid Clint Hurdle cost his PIT pitchers two games in mid-Aug by not pulling them at the right time). Straily has dominated MIL this year with an average start of 7IP/6K/1ER over 3 starts. I will gladly take those numbers tonight.

No, I’m not drunk. I actually am recommending a pitcher against the Braves. As we all know, I have been having a love affair with ATL for about 2 weeks now but that was all against RHP. ATL does not hit LHP well at all. Chen has pitched pretty well against the Braves this year. In 3 starts he’s gone 16.2IP/7ER/13K. Chen’s price on FD is stupid high but on DK he’s right where he needs to be to qualify for the RVC (Ryan Vogelsong Corollary – a crappy pitcher at a low price is a worthy play if we think he can get to his minimum target score…14 DK points in Chen’s case). I like pairing him with Madison Bumgarner to effectively lower MadBum’s price (under $10k average for each when you balance them out). Get me to my 14 DK points Chen and you’ve done your job.

I know that the matchup looks ugly but Robbie Ray’s strikeout upside is so high that he has to be a consideration every time he’s priced under $8.5k. It’s going to be so scary to use Ray tonight against a good-hitting Orioles team but when a guy is averaging 6IP/8K/3ER over his last 10 starts, it’s kind of hard to ignore. Those stats, without wins, get to just about 4x value on FD. That’s insane! Even if Ray gives up 4 ER tonight I think he can hit value if he gets through 6 innings and gets a win (which he is, Wade Miley sucks).

On matchup alone, Madison Bumgarner is the top play on the board. He’s going to have the highest raw score of any pitcher tonight. Unfortunately, we have to take ROI and ownership into consideration when picking a pitcher. Bumgarner has to have an incredible start just to hit value tonight and even against a team like the Padres it’s hard to forecast a 7IP/10K type of game. That said, I love pairing him on DK with Wei-Yin Chen because that lowers his price to about $10k. He still needs to have a really good game to make up for the fact that Chen can’t hit 2.5x value on DK with a $10k price tag, but if Chen can get to 18 DK points, that lowers the score MadBum needs to get to hit value. Math is fun.

 

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Stacks:

Any time you can game stack the Mets and Phillies, you go right ahead and do it. I mean, what could possibly go wrong.  In all seriousness, I know that neither of these offenses are very good but the pitchers on the mound aren’t very good either. Philadelphia just annihilated Chris Sale so we know they can hit a lefty. What do we really know about Sean Gilmartin?  I’ll tell you, we know he’s left-handed. That’s about it. Philly is a plucky offense loaded with righties that can turn on a ball. It’s a risky move to use too many of them but it’s also one that can win you a GPP with their expected low ownership. I’m using Tommy Joseph, Freddy Galvis, Maikel Franco, and Cameron Rupp for my stack.

On the other side of this game you’ve got the Mets who are fighting for their playoff lives. As a born again Mets fan (I renounced them when they signed Jason Bay because I didn’t trust management but came around when they went for it with Cespedes…shut up, I know I’m a bad fan) I know that the Mets have this innate ability to turn it on when they need to get a win. I don’t love a lot of their players but Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, and Jose Reyes are leading the charge right now and all of them have their upside today against Alec Asher. I’m going to use TJ Rivera as well because he’s cheap and always seems to be involved when the Mets score some runs. If you want a sneaky 1B play then Lucas Duda is in the mix as well.  I’ll wait and see if Asdrubal Cabrera is in the lineup before I go and recommend him. If he is then I’d use him in place of Reyes or Granderson; Cespedes and Rivera are not leaving my lineups.

Isn’t the general rule to always stack against Tyler Duffey? He can throw a good game time and again but today is not that day. Over his last 10 games he’s got an 8.53 ERA with 9 HR allowed in 44 innings pitched. I don’t know if you know this, but Seattle hits a lot of HR. They should roll in this one. I’ll go with Cruz, Smith, Cano, and Seager for my stack.

ARI hits lefties really well. One of the first things I look for every night when I start my research is to see if ARI is facing a lefty. If they are, they’re automatically in consideration for a top stack. I know that BAL is fighting for a playoff spot but it’s Wade Miley. He’s so bad (6.60 ERA over his last 10 starts). I can see the D’backs putting up a very big number here tonight. I’ll go with Paul Goldschmidt, Yasmani Tomas, Brandon Drury, and Jean Segura. Wellington Castillo is a fine play as well if you don’t like anyone else at catcher (I prefer Yasmani Grandal).

Come play me in a free GPP (bragging rights only) over at Fantasy Draft.

Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.

 

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