The Longball (Daily GPP Plays): September 27th, 2016
September 27, 2016 | Doug Shain
Hello and welcome to the Longball for September 27, 2016.
***Irresponsible or not, I won’t be writing about Miami Marlins games the rest of the season. Far be it from me to hypothesize on how a team is going to respond to the death of a teammate. I respect your right to use both the Marlins and their opponents, and for the sake of your ROI you may have to, but I just feel wrong writing about it.***
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
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|1) Ricky Nolasco (LAA/RHP) vs Oakland Athletics: $7.0 FD; $7.8 DK||Atlanta Braves vs Jerad Eickhoff (PHI/RHP)||Fanduel: Ricky Nolasco ($7000), Tyler Flowers ($2900), Anthony Rizzo ($4200), Robinson Cano ($3200), Adonis Garcia ($2900), Dansby Swanson ($2800), Mookie Betts ($4200), Dexter Fowler ($4100), Ender Inciarte ($3500)|
|2) AJ Griffin (TEX/RHP) vs Milwaukee Brewers: $7.5 FD; $5.7 DK||Seattle Mariners @ Mike Fiers (HOU/RHP)||Draft Kings: Ricky Nolasco ($7800), AJ Griffin ($5700), Tyler Flowers ($3200), David Ortiz ($5600), Robinson Cano ($4600), Kris Bryant ($5100), Addison Russell ($3700), Mookie Betts ($5600), Jackie Bradley Jr ($4900), Matt Kemp ($3700)|
|3) Ian Kennedy (KC/RHP) vs Minnesota Twins: $8.3 FD; $8.9 DK||Boston Red Sox @ Luis Cessa (NYY/RHP)||Fantasy Draft: Ricky Nolasco ($15200), AJ Griffin ($11200), David Ortiz ($10800), Anthony Rizzo ($10800), Kris Bryant ($9900), Mookie Betts ($10800), Matt Kemp ($7200), Adonis Garcia ($7600), Freddie Freeman ($10000), Tyler Flowers ($6400)|
|4) Julio Teheran (ATL/RHP) vs Philadelphia Phillies: $8.5 FD; $9.5 DK||Chicago Cubs @ Ryan Vogelsong (PIT/RHP)|
|5) Felix Hernandez (SEA/RHP) @ Houston Astros: $9.4 FD; $8.5 DK|
|Other pitchers to consider: David Price, Max Scherzer||Other stacks to consider: Washington Nationals, Kansas City Royals, Tampa Bay Rays||Lineup Notes:
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Pitchers: Realistically, I’m only using my top 3 pitchers today. I decided to write about #’s 4 and 5 because there is enough upside that they are worth having a discussion about. I’m all in on bats today so I’m going to do my best to find value at pitcher and load my lineup with big boppers in good matchups. This is a great night to do it because there are 3 pitchers that are low cost that I love.
My favorite pitcher tonight is Ricky Nolasco. He’s totally gotten lost in the shuffle lately but he’s been pitching quite well since his trade to the Angels. He’s still Ricky Nolasco so there are going to be some bad games thrown in there but over his last two starts he’s at 13IP/0ER/12K against the Astros and Blue Jays. Needless to say, the A’s are neither of those two teams offensively. Even with those few bad games thrown in, Nolasco has a respectable 3.60 ERA with an average of nearly 5K per start over his last 10 starts. I love how he’s pitching right now and the price is surely right to give Nolasco a go tonight as my top pitching play.
Anyone who reads me knows that I’m all about using RHP against the Milwaukee Brewers. AJ Griffin has struggled this year but he’s shown glimpses that he’s capable of a big game. On the other hand, it’s MIL and Keyvius Sampson and Ryan Vogelsong crushed value against them so I’m not sweating an AJ Griffin start. Griffin is a strike out pitcher and he’s capable for a 6IP/8K game here. What’s even better is that MIL went off last night (against a lefty) so that should keep ownership reasonable on Griffin tonight. If you’re going big on hitters like I am, he’s a perfect option to pair with Nolasco or Kennedy.
Speaking of Kennedy, I love using him at home. I love using him at home even more when he’s going up against a free swinging team like the Twins. Kennedy gives up about half a run less per game at home and his HR rate is much less as well (about three quarters less of a HR per game allowed at home). He’s handled MIN very well this year with a 2.31 ERA, an 8.57 K/9, and a 3-0 record in 4 starts. He’s a little pricier than Nolasco but he’s also a bit safer. Kennedy, Griffin, and Nolasco are the only three pitchers I’m really going to consider using today.
Julio Teheran and Felix Hernandez have just enough upside that it’s worth giving a little blurb about each tonight. I’m not going to use them because I want to save my money for bats but if you have some value hitters you like it’s not crazy to use these other two guys. Teheran is going up against a Philly team that hits LHP better than RHP. He’s going to get run support and his K-upside is pretty high. He’s a little bit too inconsistent for my taste but he’s held PHI to 3 runs in 11 innings while racking up 11 strikeouts in 2 starts against them this year.
Felix Hernandez has been very hit or miss in 2016 as well. When he’s on, he’s the Felix of old. When he’s off, he’s a disaster. Houston can make a lot of pitchers look really bad if their bats are on point. On the other hand, they can make pitchers look great if they start swinging and missing…and Houston swings and misses a lot. Hernandez did not fare well in his one start against the Astros this year but he’s been better lately. He’s given up 0 earned runs in three of his last four starts. This is a very risky play but one worth making if you believe in what we’ve seen recently from The King.
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There’s a RHP on the mound against ATL. I guess that means the answer to all the questions in the world is “stack the Braves.” The Braves have been one of the best offenses in baseball since the All Star break and they are repeatedly hammering RHP. This game is at home and they’ve been putting on a show at Turner Field. They’ve been stifled a bit by Eickhoff a bit this year but they haven’t faced him since July 31 and that’s when their run really started. I’m more than willing to use them again today. I’m going with Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis, Matt Kemp, and Adonis Garcia. Depending on the site, Tyler Flowers, Dansby Swanson, and Ender Inciarte are in play as well.
Seattle continues to be one of the better hitting offenses in baseball. Mike Fiers has issues with the HR ball. He’s given up 26 on the season, including 9 in his last 10 starts. Minute Maid Park is a great spot for hitters and Seattle is mashing right now. I’m going to roll out Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, and Seth Smith. Adam Lind is in play if you need an inexpensive 1B.
I don’t get to use Boston too often because of how pricey they are but I’m focused on bats tonight and they are on my radar. They get to face Luis Cessa at Yankee Stadium; a perfect spot for a big game. Boston has clinched the division but they are yet to lock in home field advantage. They need this game and they are going to go all out here. I’m not messing around and I’ll sure their best bats. Give me David Ortiz, Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, and Jackie Bradley Jr.
I love using Ryan Vogelsong against the Brewers. I love stacking against Ryan Vogelsong in any other matchup. He’s such a bad pitcher and there are few offenses that he’s capable of handling. He has a 5.33 ERA in his last 10 starts and he’s been even worse against the Cubs (6 ER in 8.1 IP). Just like with Boston, I’m not messing around here. I’m going to be using Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Dexter Fowler, and Addison Russell.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.