The Longball (Daily GPP Plays): September 29th, 2016
September 29, 2016 | Doug Shain
Hello and welcome to the Longball for September 29, 2016.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
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|1) Alex Reyes (STL/RHP) vs Cincinnati Reds: $5.7 FD; $7.4 DK||Atlanta Braves vs Jeremy Hellickson (PHI/RHP)||Fanduel: Alex Reyes ($5700), Gary Sanchez ($3900), Freddie Freeman ($4200), Robinson Cano ($3300), Kyle Seager ($3200), Aledmys Diaz ($3300), Nelson Cruz ($4000), Matt Kemp ($3300), Mookie Betts ($4100)|
|2) Julio Urias (LAD/LHP) @ San Diego Padres: $7.5 FD; $8.7 DK||Pittsburgh Pirates vs Rob Zastryzny (CHC/LHP)||Draft Kings: Alex Reyes ($7400), Jon Gray ($10400), Tyler Flowers ($3700), Freddie Freeman ($5200), Robinson Cano ($5500), Kyle Seager ($4200), Dansby Swanson ($2700), Nelson Cruz ($4900), Mikie Mahtook ($2300), Matt Kemp ($3700)|
|3) Jon Gray (COL/RHP) @ San Francisco Giants: $8.4 FD; $10.4 DK||Seattle Mariners vs Kendall Graveman (OAK/RHP)||Fantasy Draft: Jon Gray ($20000), Chris Archer ($17700), Kyle Seager ($8100), Dansby Swanson ($5200), Robinson Cano ($10800), Nelson Cruz ($9600), Matt Kemp ($7200), Mikie Mahtook ($4400), Freddie Freeman ($10000), Adam Lind ($6800)|
|4) Chris Archer (TB/RHP) @ Chicago White Sox: $9.5 FD; $9.1 DK||Toronto Blue Jays vs Ubaldo Jimenez (BAL/RHP)|
|5) Ivan Nova (PIT/RHP) vs Chicago Cubs: $7.0 FD; $6.5 DK|
|Other pitchers to consider: Marcus Stroman, Danny Duffy, Ariel Miranda, Christian Friedrich||Other stacks to consider: Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays|
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The price on Alex Reyes, especially on FD, baffles me. He’s had exactly zero bad outings all year. We’re at a point (40 innings) where we can start to legitimize his statistics. What I’m seeing is a kid who has an ERA of 1.58 with more than a strikeout per inning pitched. He walks a lot more batters than I’d like (21 in those 40 innings) but he’s not giving up the big fly to compound his issue (only 1 HR allowed this year). This kid has hit value, based on today’s salary, in almost every DK start. What’s more impressive is that he’s hit FD value, based on today’s salary, in almost every outing (including relief stints)…and that’s without factoring in wins. As much as I love Urias, geez, I may like Reyes a little more. Maybe I need to move him up to #1…hold on…there he is, #1.
Let’s get the elephant out of the room – yes, I’m extremely concerned about Julio Urias getting pulled after 3 innings in this game. No, that’s not going to stop me from ranking him a top pitcher. I just don’t see why they’d start him in this game if they didn’t intend to give him at least 5 innings of work. SD is a great matchup for him; they can’t hit lefties (except for Hunter Renfroe, but we’ll pretend he doesn’t exist). I prefer him on FD where his low price means he really only need 5IP/5K to hit his value. I look at that as his floor today if he gets to go those five innings. Reyes is safer, for sure, but Urias has more upside if he gets a full workload.
Oooh, Dougie loves him some strikeouts and Jon Gray is one of the best in the business at getting the big K. He’s accumulated 26 strikeouts over his last 2 games and seems to really be finding his groove. The Giants have something to play for as they currently are fighting with the Cardinals for the last wild card spot. Nevertheless, I think that Gray has the potential for another huge game as he’s already handled SF this year to the tune of 7IP/1H/0ER/5K. We’ve got a hot pitcher facing a team he’s already owned this year…oh, and it’s at a pitcher’s park, yes please.
I’ve said it for 3 straight starts of his but if you take Archer’s last 10 games and extrapolated it for the season, he’d be right in the thick of the Cy Young discussion. He’s got one of the highest K-rates in the AL, he doesn’t walk anyone (1.4 BB per start over his last 10 games), and he’s only given up more than 3 runs in one of his last 10 outings. He’s pitching so well and today he gets a CWS team that was about to be manhandled by Blake Snell prior to their rain delay. Even after the delay a gaggle of relievers were able to hold down the fort. Outside of Gray, I’m not sure if there’s another pitcher with more upside than Archer tonight.
Bear with me on the Ivan Nova thing. Aside from his last two starts, he’s been really good since he was traded to the Pirates. His K-rate was up and he was keeping runs off the board. No doubt he struggled against WSH and CIN over the last week but I have a sneaking suspicion that the Cubbies aren’t going to be rolling out their A-team tonight. Chicago has clinched everything and they’re facing a tough pitcher. There’s really no reason not to give Bryant, Rizzo, and company the night off. If they are in the lineup I’d probably think twice about using Nova but if one or more of the big guns sit, I’d be very inclined to give him a shot as a cheap GPP play with upside (particularly on DK).
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I take one night off and the Braves explode. You know what, I’m not even shocked because ATL is a machine. Hellickson has faced the Braves three times this year and has an ERA of over 4.00. ATL should do quite well tonight. The Braves might have one of the worst records in the sport but is there a hotter duo than Freeman and Kemp right now? Those two guys are just raking. There are a lot of options on this team along with the dynamic duo: Dansby Swanson, Tyler Flowers, Jace Peterson, Adonis Garcia, and Nick Markakis are the best of the bunch. For me, I’m most interested in Swanson and Flowers as cheap options at SS and C.
I don’t know anything about Zastryzny other than he’s left-handed, has a high k-rate, and is part of what’s being called a “bullpen start.” I love me some bullpen starts because that means we are going to see junk relievers all game long. The Pirates are starting to hit a bit so I’m more than ok to use them tonight as the Cubs send out their D-League squad (welcome back NBA!). Let’s go with Josh Bell, Andrew McCutchen, David Freese, and Sean Rodriguez tonight. If Jung Ho Kang or Starling Marte make the lineup (I don’t think they will) then they are very much in play as well (I’d probably sit Freese).
Seattle keeps crushing it as they’ve not got three batters with more than 30 HR this season. The Mariners have destroyed Graveman in his four starts against them (7.48 ERA with only 12 K). I expect another big game for Seattle as they continue to push towards the Wild Card. I would not be shocked to see another double digit run game out of them. Let’s go with Cruz, Seager, Cano, and Seth Smith for our stack.
We have got one last shot to stack against Ubaldo this year, so let’s get at it with some gusto. Jimenez has been annihilated by the Jays this year to the tune of 15 earned runs in 14.1 innings pitched. I see no reason to think that this is going to change as the Blue Jays look to distance themselves from BAL in the Wild Card race. The last time Jimenez faced TOR he had his worst start among his last 10 outings. Let’s go with Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion. If Ezequiel Carrera is in the lineup I’d strongly consider him as an alternative to Russell Martin.
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Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.