The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – September 12, 2017
September 11, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for September 12, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
***Just wanted to throw it out there that I’m going to try to change the format up a little bit for the Longball for the time being. In theory, it will combine my favorite parts of the two formats I’ve used this year: a HuLo chart and then musings on how I construct my sample lineups. The lineups are still not optimal lineups, so don’t mistake them for that, but I think it’s important that you get a closer look into how we can use these HuLo plays to construct the lineups. So instead of spouting off stats that you can easily look up (and don’t worry, I won’t totally avoid stats) I’ll spend my time talking about how to best attack the slate using the HuLo picks. Any feedback is more than welcome.***
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Dylan Bundy (BAL/RHP) @ Toronto Blue Jays: $8.9k DK/$8.6k FD||Minnesota Twins vs Travis Wood (SD/LHP)||Fanduel: Sonny Gray ($8800), Gary Sanchez ($3800), Yonder Alonso ($2800), Brian Dozier ($4200), Eduardo Escobar ($3200), Jorge Polanco ($3500), Byron Buxton ($3300), Mitch Haniger ($2900), Ben Gamel ($2500)|
|Gerrit Cole (PIT/RHP) @ Milwaukee Brewers: $9.4k DK/$9.2k FD||Seattle Mariners @ Miguel Gonzalez (TEX/RHP)||Draft Kings : Justin Verlander ($11600), Sonny Gray ($9600), Jorge Alfaro ($2300), Chase Headley ($3500), Cesar Hernandez ($3800), Maikel Franco ($2900), Elvis Andrus ($4200), Rhys Hoskins ($4800), Aaron Altherr ($3300), Mitch Haniger ($4000)|
|Johnny Cueto (SF/RHP) vs Los Angeles Dodgers: $7.3k DK/$7.9k FD||Philadelphia Phillies vs Dillon Peters (MIA/LHP)||Fantasy Draft: Corey Kluber ($25800), Clayton Kershaw ($25200), Ozzie Albies ($5700), Maikel Franco ($5700), Matt Chapman ($4500), Aaron Altherr ($6400), Trey Mancini ($6000), Ben Gamel ($6900), Robinson Chirinos ($6900), Chris Davis ($6800)|
|Sonny Gray (NYY/RHP) @ Tampa Bay Rays (Citi Field): $9.6k DK/$8.8k FD||Washington Nationals vs Julio Teheran (ATL/RHP)|
|Chalk Pitchers: Corey Kluber, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Gio Gonzalez, Kyle Gibson, Jose Quintana, Lance Lynn, Eduardo Rodriguez||Chalk Stacks: Colorado Rockies, Arizona Diamondbacks, Seattle Mariners, Miami Marlins, Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Cleveland Indians|
Holy crazy pitching, Batman! When I think about who I want to use tonight the only thing that runs through my mind is the shrugging shoulders emjoi. You all know me, so it’s not likely at all that I’m going to look at one of the most expensive pitchers on this slate. I have to have some money left over for my bats and I just don’t feel like I can effectively do that with Kluber or Kershaw’s salary on my books. On the other hand, I don’t think I can be as competitive as I want to be if I don’t spend up a little bit with my pitcher. I just don’t see how we can compete even with a guy with a good matchup like Eduardo Rodriguez here. I have to get one of the elite pitchers on this team and I’m not really willing to go cheaper than Johnny Cueto. I almost loaded up Verlander or Gerrit Cole but, man, I feel like I’ll be ok if I go down a little further. I don’t want to go all the way down to Cueto because I can’t see him getting a win against Kershaw, so I’m settling in on Sonny Gray. He’s been pretty good against the Rays this year with 16 strikeouts in 12 innings of work. Over his last four starts he’s been wildly inconsistent with his strikeouts but I think we are going to see him on the plus side of the pendulum tonight with how often the Rays whiff (27.8% K-rate against RHP on the season). Let’s not forget that this “road” game takes place at Citi Field so it’s a virtual home game for Gray, except this home game is at Petco North and not Coors East. Gray has hit 34 FD points or more in twelve of his last thirteen starts so I really don’t worry about Gray not giving me a solid return on his price. Using Gray still allowed me to go ahead and target the Twins at home against Travis Wood and the Mariners in Texas against Miguel Gonzalez. Both of these matchups are very positive for these bats and I expect both teams to be looking at 6+ runs of offense. I went with a glamor pick at catcher with Gary Sanchez facing a lefty. I could have probably spent down at catcher and used Verlander or Cole as my pitcher but I’d rather have Gray/Sanchez rather than one of those other two pitchers and any other catcher that I could have used with them as my pitcher (a Cole/Chirinos combination was $100 too expensive and that would have been a serious consideration).
As I so often do on a slate with so much high quality pitching, I have turned to the Philadelphia Phillies as my punt stack du jour. Philly continues to be a plucky offense that has turned into a matchup nightmare (probably too strong a word, maybe nuisance?) because they can roll out a lineup that hits lefties or righties well. Today they are facing a lefty, and one that I’ve never even heard of (Dillon Peters; who actually hammered Philly the last time he faced them for 7IP/8K/0ER). Besides that one good start against the Phils, his DK notes tell me that he skipped Triple-A, and is not a power pitcher. What that tells me is that the start he did have was more likely a fluke than a sign of things to come. I’m more than happy to spend all the way down on a five person Phillies stack and then load up at pitcher with Justin Verlander and Sonny Gray. No, I can’t afford to pay for Kluber and/or Kershaw but I love the matchup for both the guys I picked and think they can put up similar stats to the big two. Verlander has been a monster since his trade to Houston and I see no reason why that would change against a team like the Angels. I know that LAA is in the playoff hunt but please don’t tell me that their offense scares you (outside of Trout, obviously). The real sneaky thing I was able to do with this lineup was to pass on a second stack and instead target three hot players with great matchups that fit what I needed for this lineup. Chase Headley, Elvis Andrus, and Mitch Haniger are all hitting well over .300 with power over their last ten games. Each of them is facing a bat pitcher today so I expect them to be worthwhile additions to this lineup to counteract the variance that the Phillies stack gives us.
Was there any doubt, at all, that I was going to do this? You know how much I love to load my Fantasy Draft teams up with two stud pitchers and then find all the value bats I can handle. Today is no different. The very first thing I did when I saw this slate of pitchers was lock Kershaw and Kluber into this lineup. I thought I could get away with just stacking Phillies to make this happen but that was definitely not a winning strategy. Rhys Hoskins and Cesar Hernandez were just too expensive to realistically fit into this lineup. I was able to get Franco and Altherr into this lineup so they were easy clicks for me. The two names that shocked me the most for this team were Trey Mancini and Chris Davis. I know that neither of them are playing great at the moment but they are facing Joe Biagini and he’s bad. To get both of those guys for an average of $6.4k was a godsend to this lineup. Both guys have legit HR upside. Ben Gamel and Robinson Chirinos are both hot right now so they were easy adds at $6.9k. Ozzie Albies doesn’t have a great matchup but he starts, hits at the top of the order, and is a plucky little player that always finds a way to put up some points. I nearly fell out of my seat when I saw Matt Chapman at only $4.5k. He’s batting .314 with 5 XBH over his last ten games. That’s just a mispriced player that I’m going to take advantage of every time I can, especially when he’s facing a wild lefty like Eduardo Rodriguez.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.