The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – September 16, 2017
September 16, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for September 16, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
***Just wanted to throw it out there that I’m going to try to change the format up a little bit for the Longball for the time being. In theory, it will combine my favorite parts of the two formats I’ve used this year: a HuLo chart and then musings on how I construct my sample lineups. The lineups are still not optimal lineups, so don’t mistake them for that, but I think it’s important that you get a closer look into how we can use these HuLo plays to construct the lineups. So instead of spouting off stats that you can easily look up (and don’t worry, I won’t totally avoid stats) I’ll spend my time talking about how to best attack the slate using the HuLo picks. Any feedback is more than welcome.***
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Ben Lively (PHI/RH P) vs Oakland Athletics: $7.5k DK/$6.9k FD||Toronto Blue Jays @ Adalberto Mejia (MIN/LHP)||Fanduel: Madison Bumgarner ($9200), Manny Pina ($2500), Jesus Aguilar ($2300), Brian Dozier ($3900), Josh Donaldson ($3500), JP Crawford ($2400), Ryan Braun ($3500), Domingo Santana ($3000), Rhys Hoskins ($4700)|
|Tyler Anderson (COL/LHP) vs San Diego Padres: $6.3k DK/$6.0k FD||Los Angeles Angels vs Cole Hamels (TEX/LHP)||Draft Kings : Zach Davies ($9200), Tyler Anderson ($6300), Martin Maldonado ($2600), CJ Cron ($3200), Brandon Phillips ($3700), Josh Donaldson ($4800), Andrelton Simmons ($3600), Mike Trout ($5400), Rhys Hoskins ($5600), Charlie Blackmon ($5600)|
|Philadelphia Phillies vs Kendall Graveman (OAK/RHP)||Fantasy Draft: Ben Lively ($15000), Tyler Anderson ($12400), Brian Dozier ($10200), Eduardo Escobar ($8100), Odubel Herrera ($7600), Byron Buxton ($10000), Eddie Rosario ($9000), Nick Williams ($7200), Rhys Hoskins ($10800), Josh Donaldson ($9300)|
|Chalk Pitchers: Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Kendall Graveman, Jacob DeGrom, Zach Davies||Chalk Stacks: Colorado Rockies, Milwaukee Brewers, Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins|
I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t love Bumgarner and I wasn’t targeting him at all for my SP1. I’ll also admit that a lot of my dislike is completely irrational and he’s a fine start against the Diamondbacks. He’s got a 3.00 ERA with more than a K per inning in three starts against ARI this year. No, those aren’t mind blowing numbers but it’s not like Greinke or DeGrom are all that much safer (yes, better matchups) and It’ll cost you more to use them (in both price and ownership). Moving down in this lineup from Greinke to Bumgarner allowed to do all sorts of fun things with my bat. Most notably, I was able to stack the Brewers (facing a bad lefty) and still have room for major bats in Donaldson, Dozier, and Hoskins (three of my four favorite one and done bats of the day; Blackmon is the other). Milwaukee brings a ton of power into this game and they match up so well against Conley. The one things MIL struggles with is their strikeouts. The one things Conley can’t do is strike anyone out. His 6.4 K/9 is pretty bad (and over his last four games that has dropped to 4.1 K/9). If Milwaukee is going to get their bats on the ball, the ball is going to go far. Conley gives up more fly balls than he induces ground balls (23:28 ground ball to fly ball ratio over his last four starts) and that’s lead to him giving up 11 HR over his last ten starts. I would have liked to have used Neil Walker in this lineup but when I saw I could make Dozier fit, it was an easy decision to use Pina as my fourth MIL bat. I don’t think I need to get too much in detail as to why I like Hoskins (more on the Phillies in a bit), Dozier (huge HR potential at a weak position), or Donaldson (heating up with a .300+ BA and 3 HR over his last ten starts). The only head scratcher may be JP Crawford but he’s got a great matchup (I swear I’ll talk more about the Phillies in a bit) and has put up a good score in six of his last seven games. As long as he’s in the lineup today he’s a solid value.
One of my favorite HuLo plays is always Tyler Anderson pitching at Coors. His numbers this year don’t look so great (6.04 ERA with a .304 BAA) but digging a little deeper I don’t think they’re so bad. He’s got a 10.2 K/9 and a robust 3:1 K to BB ratio at home. The best number for me is that his HR per 9 is 1.3 at home and 2.5 on the road. Neither of those numbers are terribly encouraging but what it does show me is that he makes adjustments in the altitude of Colorado and that they work. Let’s not forget that he’s facing the Padres, a terrible offense that scored all of 1 run at Coors on Friday, and that he’s very inexpensive. He could blow up a little bit and still return value for you (12+ DK points and I’m happy; a number he’s exceeded in 5 of his last 8 starts). I like Zach Davies last night and he ended up not pitching. Nothing has changed for me today. He’s been outstanding over his last ten starts (1.89 ERA) and I can live with is low K-rate if he’s not giving up runs and getting wins. A low WHP will help a lot on DK with their scoring system. There are so many teams that I wanted to stack here but in the end I went for a little double whammy action against Cole Hamels. They’ve hit him well already this year, and mre importantly he’s got a sub 2:1 K to BB ratio. If he’s putting runners on then the Angles are going to take advantage of it. LAA is in the thick of the wild card race and they’re kind of interesting from the right hand side of the plate. I love how inexpensive this stack is (besides Trout) because it allows me to go a little nuts with my three other bats (Donaldson, Hoskins, and Blackmon). I’m not worried about that trio, so this lineup really falls on those secondary LAA bats and Tyler Anderson to be successful. The ownership is going to line up in a way that if these guys pop, you’re going to fly up a GPP.
Now we can finally talk about those wild and wacky Phillies. I don’t think I have to say all that much about their offense because they’ve been hitting the cover off the ball. What I like best about today’s matchup is that Kendall Graveman is awful on the road. In seven starts he has a 6.75 ERA and only 22 K in 36 IP. The last thing you want to do right now is allow the Phillies to put bat to ball. I’m double stacking Philly with Minnesota for a “whoda thunk it a month ago” power double stack. Because I need bats from three teams on Fantasy Draft, I’m throwing Josh Donaldson in there because I can. To make this all work I have to go super cheap with pitching but I really like the duo of Lively and Anderson. Lively hasn’t been half bad over his last five starts, and if he meets his five game averages then he should be able to give you a reasonable return on your investment. Yesterday we tried to go big on pitching and value with our bats and it bit us when Chris Sale wasn’t dominant. Today we are going to go with the exact opposite theory and see how that pans out.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.