The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – September 18, 2017
September 17, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for September 18, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
***Just wanted to throw it out there that I’m going to try to change the format up a little bit for the Longball for the time being. In theory, it will combine my favorite parts of the two formats I’ve used this year: a HuLo chart and then musings on how I construct my sample lineups. The lineups are still not optimal lineups, so don’t mistake them for that, but I think it’s important that you get a closer look into how we can use these HuLo plays to construct the lineups. So instead of spouting off stats that you can easily look up (and don’t worry, I won’t totally avoid stats) I’ll spend my time talking about how to best attack the slate using the HuLo picks. Any feedback is more than welcome.***
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Dylan Bundy (BAL/RHP) vs Boston Red Sox: $9.1k DK/$8.9k FD||New York Mets @ Dan Straily (MIA/RHP)||Fanduel: Patrick Corbin ($9500), Jorge Alfaro ($2000), Matt Olson ($4300), Brian Dozier ($3900), Eduardo Escobar ($3200), Jorge Polanco ($3300), Rhys Hoskins ($3000), Aaron Altherr ($2000), Ryan Braun ($3700)|
|Ervin Santana (MIN/RHP) @ New York Yankees: $10.5k DK/$8.6k FD||Oakland Athletics @ Buck Farmer (DET/RHP)||Draft Kings : Clayton Kershaw ($13700), Brent Suter ($5400), Travis d’Arnaud ($3300), Dominic Smith ($3300), Jed Lowrie ($4000), Matt Chapman ($3000), Asdrubal Cabrera ($3800), Matt Olson ($4700), Matt Joyce ($4400), Ryan Braun ($4100)|
|Brent Suter (MIL/LHP) @ Pittsburgh Pirates: $5.4k DK/$6.2k FD||Philadelphia Phillies vs Clayton Kershaw (LAD/LHP)||Fantasy Draft: Clayton Kershaw ($26700), Patrick Cobrin ($18600), Asdrubal Cabrera ($7600), Dominic Smith ($6600), Amed Rosario ($6600), Brandon Nimmo ($6800), Domingo Santana ($7500), Andrew Romine ($4400), Jesus Aguilar ($8100), Alex Presley ($6800)|
|Chalk Pitchers: Clayton Kershaw, Patrick Corbin, Brent Suter, Doug Fister||Chalk Stacks: Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Dodgers, Miami Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona Diamondbacks|
To Kershaw or not to Kershaw, that literally is the question for this slate. With no pitcher remotely close to being capable of what Kershaw can you, you have to ask yourself if you can fade him and still feel ok with using Patrick Corbin or Ervin Santana. Normally I’m on #teamfadeKershaw and I’m back there again for my Fanduel lineup (not so much elsewhere) because Kershaw being on the mound presents us with a unique opportunity on Fanduel. I’m going to stack against Kershaw (because I’m nuts). Fanduel lowers the prices of all the bats facing Kershaw to nearly the minimum or lower (except for Rhys Hoskins, who you still get a steep discount on). Even using one or two Phillies bats should open up a ton of other options for your lineup. As it were, I’m going with three Phils on my team with Hoskins, Alfaro (or Rupp, whoever starts), and Altherr. All hit LHP well and are just plucky enough to give me a false sense of security against Kershaw. It’s a huge risk but it’s also only 38% of my bats so I’ve still got five guys left who can pull through for me if Kershaw mows down Philadelphia. I’ve decided to use those last five spots on hot players with great matchups. Matt Olson is a no brainer as he’s been a monster over the last month or so with 17 HR in the last month of games. That’s filthy! He’s facing Buck Farmer. Like I said, no brainer. I’m also going to go with Ryan Braun as he’s found his power stroke and faces a weak lefty (don’t try to tell me how great Brault was the last time he faced Milwaukee, I’ll take Braun in that matchup every day). Finally, I’m going to fire away with a 3-man Twins stack at Yankee Stadium against Jaime Garcia. I mean, they’ve been so hot recently that it’d be foolish to not take a stab at them. As for my pitcher, I think that the second best play on the board today is Patrick Corbin and he’s able to fit nicely into this lineup. He has been dominant in eight of his last nine starts, shockingly faltering only against these same Padres last week in Arizona. I don’t see that happening again today with this game at Petco Park. I’ll take my chances that we get the guy with the 43 FD point eight game average and not the one who gave up 8 runs in a fluke start against SD last week. I probably wouldn’t try to pull off this lineup on a full slate but this seems like the right way to counteract Kershaw on such a short slate.
My four favorite teams to stack today are the Mets, A’s, Brewers, and Twins. Milwaukee and Minnesota are pretty strong lineups but the Mets and A’s just fit better for what I want to do with this team. I’m able to go with a 4-3-1 stacking strategy here while still fitting in Clayton Kershaw and my HuLo pitcher of the day, Brent Suter. I don’t think I need to get into why I’d use Kershaw, so I’ll just say that on a short slate like this it’s sometimes easiest to go with the chalk pitcher and find value bats (as opposed to stacking against the chalk, as I did with my FD lineup). I was a little surprised with how expensive with A’s were to use but I’m kind of obsessed with Matt Olson and friends right now. The Baby A’s are very DFS friendly and have a great matchup against Buck Farmer in Detroit. There are a number of directions I could have gone with this team but I wanted the power from Olson and Joyce, with the reliability of Lowrie, and the HuLo-iness of Matt Chapman. I’m pairing the A’s with the Mets because they are cheap and have somehow become a better offense since they gave up on the season. It’s kind of hard to stack them since you don’t know who will produce for them but d’Arnaud, Smith, and Cabrera have been pretty consistent as of late and don’t need to do too much to return value. As it turns out, I have just enough cap space left for Ryan Braun and I really like him today, as we talked about earlier. So what about Brent Suter? Why do I want to use him? First of all, he’s cheap and I like cheap. Second of all, I think he gets a win and I definitely want those bonus points. Finally, he’s shown enough flashes of competency this year that I think I trust him against a bad team (which Pittsburgh is); at least enough to go five innings and be in line for that win. All I need is 11 DK points to make this a profitable play; a number he’s approached in each of his last handful of starts. Honestly if the bats hit and Kershaw Kershaws, then I’m really not too worried about what Suter does as long as he doesn’t go negative.
What? I’m loading up on the top two pitchers and firing away with some value bats on Fantasy Draft? You don’t say? That’s so unlike me. “How’s that working out for you, Doug?” Shut up, Karen, nobody cares. Look, this strategy hasn’t hit terribly well the last few times I’ve tried it but it’s one that does pop off frequently enough to pay off for the times it doesn’t. I’m all about hitting that big payday, especially on a site like Fantasy Draft where many of the sharks aren’t playing. I’ll take my ability to find value bats over a casual DFS player any time. This is why I always am taking chances on Fantasy Draft; the site is just set up for bigger risks due to the makeup of its players. We already talked a little bit about the Mets, but I really do like them against Dan Straily. The prices on them here are excellent so I’m definitely able to use them with little issue. I kind of wanted to go with a few higher upside bats with two of my last four spots and I think I’ve found those in Milwaukee. They are up against LHP Steven Brault and I like them to put up a crooked number against him today. He shut them down the last time they faced but that won’t happen again. Jesus Aguilar and Domingo Santana are a couple of names that stand out to me as lefty killers (that I can afford) so I’m rolling with them. To make all of this work I had to find a couple of bats I’m comfortable with for a combined $11.5k. That’s not easy to do but I think I found my guys in Detroit. Andrew Romine and Alex Presley are plucky, they start fairly regularly, and they are up against a struggling Jharel Cotton at home. If the lineup comes out and one of them isn’t playing, then I can try to pivot to Tyler Collins or someone else on that team that’s value priced. The upside is definitely limited but I don’t need monster games to return value. Just get on base, maybe score a run, and I’m a happy camper if my pitchers do their job (and if they don’t, then I’ve always got my Fanduel lineup to fall back on).
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.