The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – September 25, 2017
September 24, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for September 25, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
***Just wanted to throw it out there that I’m going to try to change the format up a little bit for the Longball for the time being. In theory, it will combine my favorite parts of the two formats I’ve used this year: a HuLo chart and then musings on how I construct my sample lineups. The lineups are still not optimal lineups, so don’t mistake them for that, but I think it’s important that you get a closer look into how we can use these HuLo plays to construct the lineups. So instead of spouting off stats that you can easily look up (and don’t worry, I won’t totally avoid stats) I’ll spend my time talking about how to best attack the slate using the HuLo picks. Any feedback is more than welcome.***
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Luke Weaver (STL/RHP) vs Chicago Cubs: $9.9k DK/$9.5k FD||Philadelphia Phillies vs Gio Gonzalez (WSH/LHP)||Fanduel: Zack Godley ($9100), Yadier Molina ($3200), Joey Gallo ($2900), Rougned Odor ($2500), Alex Bregman ($3500), Carlos Correa ($3400), George Springer ($3100), Shin-soo Choo ($3700), Josh Reddick ($3600)|
|Aaron Nola (PHI/RHP) vs Washington Nationals: $8.0k DK/$9.3k FD||Toronto Blue Jays @ Drew Pomeranz (BOS/LHP)||Draft Kings : Aaron Nola ($8000), Luke Weaver ($9900), Jorge Alfaro ($3500), Kendrys Morales ($3300), Cesar Hernandez ($3800), Josh Donaldson ($4500), Carlos Correa ($4500), Teoscar Hernandez ($2700), Rhys Hoskins ($5400), Aaron Alterr ($4400)|
|James Shields (CWS/RHP) vs Los Angeles Angels: $6.2k DK/$6.3k FD||Texas Rangers vs Collin McHugh (HOU/RHP)||Fantasy Draft: James Shields ($12300), Felix Hernandez ($13200), Paul Goldschmidt ($10800), Jake Lamb ($9200), Justin Bour ($9900), JD Martinez ($10800), AJ Pollock ($9900), David Peralta ($8400), Giancarlo Stanton ($11200), Victor Robles ($4200)|
|Chalk Pitchers: Yu Darvish, Zack Godley, Jon Lester, Felix Hernandez||Chalk Stacks: Miami Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks, Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros, Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Dodgers|
I was kind of shocked to see Godley less expensive than Luke Weaver and Aaron Nola today on FD. I would have gladly used either of those other two guys at a discount but to get a guy that I think is the best play of the three for the cheapest price is outstanding. Godley has shockingly not faced the Giants yet this year but they’re a pretty terrible offense and I’m not really worried about the matchup at all. Godley has struggled a bit over his last ten games, but when struggling consists of a 3.41 ERA and a strikeout per inning I think we are doing ok. Another interesting statistical anomaly is that Godley actually pitches better at Chase Field (Coors South) than he does away from home (3.03 ERA, .182 BAA at home vs 3.36 ERA, .247 BAA on the road). Against a bad Giants lineup that is going to work very well for me. As for my bats, I’m going to actually go ahead and game stack the battle of Texas. I don’t normally love the idea of game stacking but it works in this case. I was really looking to use the Rangers with Godley but when I saw how cheap they were I realized I could get away with a full Houston stack as well. Although it’s a small sample size, Collin McHugh has been awful on the road (5.28 ERA). Texas is not your typical road ballpark so I don’t expect McHugh to turn it around on Monday night. I’m not all in on Texas but I do like the power you can get from the left side of the plate. The inconsistency that we can see from Texas should be tempered a bit by loading up on the Houston bats. Andrew Cashner has been pretty efficient at home this year but he’s struggled against Houston with a 4.06 ERA and 5.2 K/9 in five starts (where he’s 1-4 against the Astros). Clearly I’m counting on this game being a bit of shootout.
Unless you’re new, you know that I have somewhat of a Philadelphia Phillies addiction over the last month or so. Not surprisingly, this has coincided with the emergence of Rhys Hoskins and friends. The Phillies are a dangerous offense that’s had some monster games. I know that today’s matchup against Gio Gonzalez isn’t ideal but I trusted the Phills against Clayton Kershaw, so you know that I don’t have any fear riding them against any LHP. Make sure you check the official lineups once they come out to make sure that you have the right catcher in your lineup. I’ve been on the wrong end of a zero from Jorge Alfaro more than I’d like to admit because I’m busy during roster lock. Alfaro is the most expensive Philly catcher so a pivot, if necessary, won’t be an issue. I was going to try to ride the Blue Jays a lot harder than I am but their bats are just so bad for the most part. I’m more than happy to fire away with Josh Donaldson as he’s not been slumping at all (5 HR and a .342 BA over his last ten games) and he crushes left-handed pitching. I’m also not going to have an issue using Teoscar Hernandez. He’s homered in two straight games and there’s really no reason for the Jays not to keep him in the lineup. I’m give Kendrys Morales a shot at 1B but that’s more because I needed his cheap salary rather than anything else. I’m really excited about my pitching with this lineup. I love both Nola and Weaver, and although their pricing has caught up (and possibly exceeded) their production, I’m going to punt the value and pay up anyway. Nola is excellent at home (2.98 ERA) and he’s handled the Nationals very well this year (1-0 with a 3.31 ERA and an 11.6 K/9). With the Nationals having clinched home field in the NLDS, it’s very likely that we won’t see a full complement of stars in their lineup. Nola could very realistically be a top three scoring pitcher if that happens. Weaver is an absolute monster. He’s 7-0 in his last seven starts with an 11.7 K/9 and an ERA of 1.61. He’s only given up 1 HR this year at home in 26.2 innings and I don’t see that changing today. I know that the Cubs are a really good offense but they can struggle against a high strikeout pitcher like Weaver. The duo of Nola and Weaver has the potential to combine to surpass 20 strikeouts. That’s a number that I’m not willing to pass up the chance to get.
Once again I’m using this lineup to try a stars and scrubs approach. Today I’m looking at lower end pitchers with some high end bats. James Shields is really bad but the Angles aren’t a great offense and he’s pitched not super terribly over his last handful of starts. Case in point, he hasn’t given up more than 4 ER in any of his last nine starts. That doesn’t seem like a big deal but that consistency has allowed him to be a nearly 1x player on Fantasy Draft, a nice return at his price. It helps that he’s struck out at least five batters in all but one of those ten starts. Don’t pick Shields hoping for a GPP winning performance, pick him because he shouldn’t kill a GPP winning lineup with a total blowup. This is the third start for Felix Hernandez since coming back from injury in mid-September. He wasn’t bad in his first start back but he regressed a bit in his last start. The biggest positive I’ve seen in these starts is that he struck out a batter per inning, something he was lacking earlier in the year. Today’s matchup isn’t terrible (despite Oakland’s home run prowess) because the A’s strike out a ton. If we can just get 5 innings from King Felix we should be ok based on his price. Using these cheapo depot pitchers, I’ve allowed myself to go with a monster Diamondbacks stack. I know that they just clinched a playoff berth but home field for the Wild Card game is yet to be decided, although it’s close. They are going to come out here swinging against Johnny Cueto to try to lock that up tonight. I think the D’backs are a sneaky threat to score double digit runs tonight. Along with Arizona, I’m going to head to Coors and use a couple of Marlins bats against Tyler Chatwood. He’s atrocious at home and I love the power potential of Justin Bour and Giancarlo Stanton, as he tries to chase down Roger Maris’s “real” home run record. Coors is a great place for that to happen. This is one of the more monster lineups that I’ve come out with this year and if they hit big, we could be looking at a really big score.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.