The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – September 28, 2017
September 27, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for September 28, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
***Just wanted to throw it out there that I’m going to try to change the format up a little bit for the Longball for the time being. In theory, it will combine my favorite parts of the two formats I’ve used this year: a HuLo chart and then musings on how I construct my sample lineups. The lineups are still not optimal lineups, so don’t mistake them for that, but I think it’s important that you get a closer look into how we can use these HuLo plays to construct the lineups. So instead of spouting off stats that you can easily look up (and don’t worry, I won’t totally avoid stats) I’ll spend my time talking about how to best attack the slate using the HuLo picks. Any feedback is more than welcome.***
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Sean Manaea (OAK/LHP) @ Texas Rangers: $6.2k DK/$6.5k DK||Detroit Tigers @ Danny Duffy (KC/LHP)||Fanduel: Brad Peacock ($8200), Martin Maldonado ($2300), CJ Cron ($3100), Javier Baez ($3000), Kris Bryant ($4600), Addison Russell ($2600), Kole Calhoun ($3100), Ian Happ ($3200), Mike Trout ($4800)|
|Ivan Nova (PIT/RHP) @ Washington Nationals: $6.7k DK/$6.7k FD||Oakland Athletics @ Miguel Gonzalez (TEX/RHP)||Draft Kings : Sean Manaea ($6200), Sonny Gray ($11700), Evan Gattis ($3700), Yuli Gurriel ($4000), Ian Kinsler ($3700), Nick Castellanos ($3500), Carlos Correa ($4900), George Springer ($5000), Marwin Gonzlaez ($4500), Efren Navarro ($2500)|
|Dillon Peters (MIA/LHP) vs Atlanta Braves: $5.2k DK/$6.2k FD||Los Angeles Angels @ Dylan Covey (LAA/RHP)||Fantasy Draft: Sonny Gray ($22800), Sean Manaea ($12400), Justin Bour ($8700), Nick Castellanos ($6900), CJ Cron ($6800), Giancarlo Stanton ($10800), Marcell Ozuna ($9000), Christian Yelich ($8400), Ian Kinsler ($7200), Jeimer Candelario ($6800)|
|Chalk Pitchers: Stephen Strasburg, Sonny Gray, Brad Peacock||Chalk Stacks: Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals, Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs|
I never feel fully comfortable using Brad Peacock because he’s always a threat for a five inning outing. On the flip side, he could still strike out 10+ batters in those five innings. A matchup with Boston isn’t ideal but it’s not like this is the Sox offense of 2007 that we’re talking about. Over his last six starts he’s averaging just under 6 innings pitched with a 2.10 ERA and a 10.0 K/9. While I find that DK has him overpriced at $9.5k, he’s a very solid value on FD at $8.2k. If you look at those per game averages he’s already at about 4x ROI without factoring in QS or W bonuses. I like knowing that I don’t have to rely on those in order for my pitcher to return value. And let’s remember that those are averages so there’s a nice cushion of upside there as well. It’s not out of the question for Peacock to hit a 50 FD point game. With that $8.2k price tag there were a lot of ways to go with my bats and I decided to roll out a potentially lesser owned stack (the Angels) and a stack I expect to be somewhat chalky (the Cubs). Los Angeles is facing Dylan Covey and he is not particularly good. You can pick just about any stat you like to back up this claim: 7.83 ERA, 0-7 record, 1.73 WHIP, .313 BAA, a K to BB ratio around 1:1, the 5.0 K/9, or his 2.7 HR/9 rate. However you slice it, Covey is terrible. Maybe LAA will be more widely owned than I thought. Either way, I want exposure. As for the Cubs, they are facing Lance Lynn and they’ve had a bit of success against them so far this year, although not anything too crazy (4.29 ERA against for him). Hmm, maybe I should flip which team is the chalk and which team is the HuLo play. Once again, it doesn’t much matter since I like the matchup and want action on it. I know I don’t have a couple of their bigger bats but I had to make sure everything fit with my Angels stack. I’m not going to cry about having Kris Bryant in this lineup, and Ian Happ has been solid his last few games (3 for 7 with 2 XBH and 5 R over his last three games). You could probably fiddle around with the teams and still come up with a reasonable stack, but this is the one that I think takes fullest advantage of salaries I have to work with.
I really like the Astros today. They would seem to be in a position to rest players today except that they are in a battle with the Indians for home field in the AL Playoffs. That should keep their studs in the lineup in what should be a very good matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez. I’m not terribly concerned with how well ERod has pitched lately because Houston hits LHP very well and Rodriguez gives up a lot of fly balls. He’s managed to avoid being bitten by HR but Houston is not your average offense. They are loaded all over the diamond and it wouldn’t shock me to see them take Rodriguez yard a handful of times. I’m so confident in this stack that I’m going all the way with five of their players. I broke out the big sticks in this one and while it cost me a ton, I think they are going to pay off with a great return on their prices. In order to make the Astros fit I had to make a few “concessions” to my lineup. I put that in quotes because the value plays I ended up with (Mananea and Navarro) are ones I’m very comfortable with. Navarro may seem a little iffy because of the lefty on lefty violence implications but he’s been hot and he should get the playing time with Miggy banged up. If he’s not in the lineup then I’ll scramble for a value OF, which shouldn’t be hard to find with only four days left in the season and many teams giving young kids a long look. As for Manaea, I’ve been waiting to play him against the Rangers for a while now. He was supposed to start last week against them but then got scratched, which I’m not glad about so I can use him here. Texas struggles against LHP and Manaea has a good amount of upside relative to his price. He’s nearly a K per inning guy on the season, but he’s actually surpassed that against the Rangers (11.3 K/9) this year. He has been hit hard by TEX (6.10 ERA) but he’s still averaging 14.8 DK points per game against them. That’s more than enough to hit 2x value on his price and I’m fine with that out of a value pitcher. If he can keep the earned runs in check, then we have 3-3.5x ROI upside on this play. Sonny Gray is my top pitcher on this slate so I was happy to pay up for him. He’s been great against TB this year (11.1 K/9 with a 2.66 ERA in three starts) and his price is not prohibitive at all. I feel very comfortable that he can return the 23.4 DK points necessary to make him a 2x ROI play.
It is a weird feeling playing it straight on Fantasy Draft. I usually like to go with big bats/value pitching or value bats/big pitching but today I built this team like a normal lineup. I really liked the combination of Gray and Manaea so I didn’t see a reason to get cute when I didn’t have to. I was able to go back to the Tigers for some value in this lineup (I think they hit Danny Duffy hard) and used the savings to go heavy on Marlins. I know that Julio Teheran is pretty good on the road but this Miami team can flat out hit and I just love the middle of this lineup. You know that Stanton is going to bring his A game and I think the rest of the boppers are going to follow suit. I probably would have stretched with some other players if I had to in order to fit Miami in here but the fact that I didn’t was outstanding. I’m interested to see how this lineup plays out because of its conservative nature. Can’t be worse than watching Kershaw give up 4 runs in 5 innings when your value stack pops off, right?
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.