The Longball (Daily GPP Plays): October 2nd, 2016
October 2, 2016 | Doug Shain
Hello and welcome to the Longball for October 2, 2016.
Welcome to the last day of the MLB regular season (finally…MLB is a grind). This is the last Longball of the year as I will be resuming my NHL duties, along with NFL of course, with the season only 2 weeks away. Thank you to everyone who made the Longball a success this year and for everyone who came back on a daily basis to read my rambling drivel. Somewhere amidst the great googily moogily’s, the Houston Nobodies hate, my affinity for RHP vs the Brewers, and my love affair with the Braves I think we actually had ourselves a really good season. I think this article made great strides since the 2015 season and I expect the 2017 season to be even better. With that, let’s get to the picks one last time for 2016.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling.
|1) Jerad Eickhoff (PHI/RHP) vs New York Mets: $7.9 FD; $7.8 DK||Atlanta Braves vs Justin Verlander (DET/RHP)||Fanduel: Kevin Gausman ($8400), Stephen Vogt ($3000), Paul Goldschmidt ($3900), Ian Kinsler ($3900), Jedd Gyorko ($3000), Brandon Crawford ($2600), Kole Calhoun ($3500), Matt Holliday ($3400), Mark Trumbo ($3300)|
|2) Ian Kennedy (KC/RHP) vs Cleveland Indians: $8.1 FD; $7.1 DK||San Diego Padres @ Matt Koch (ARI/RHP)||Draft Kings: Kevin Gausman ($8500), Jerad Eickhoff ($7800), Stephen Vogt ($3000), Freddie Freeman ($4000), Jedd Gyorko ($4600), Josh Donaldson ($5200), Aledmys Diaz ($4800), Kole Calhoun ($3500), Matt Holliday ($3900), Mark Trumbo ($4600)|
|3) Kevin Gausman (BAL/RHP) @ New York Yankees: $8.4 FD; $8.5 DK||St Louis Cardinals vs Ryan Vogelsong (PIT/RHP)||Fantasy Draft: Greman Marquez ($8000), Jerad Eickhoff ($15200), Jean Segura ($9900), Jedd Gyorko ($9000), Freddie Freeman ($7600), Mike Trout ($10400), Wil Myers ($10000), David Dahl ($9900), Paul Goldschmidt ($10000), Josh Donaldson ($10000)|
|4) Matt Moore (SF/RHP) vs Los Angeles Dodgers: $8.0 FD; $7.4 DK||Los Angeles Angels vs Brady Rodgers (HOU/RHP)|
|5) German Marquez (COL/RHP) vs Milwaukee Brewers: $5.0 FD; $4.0 DK|
|Other pitchers to consider: Felix Hernandez||Other stacks to consider: Minnesota Twins, Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners, Arizona Diamondbacks|
Pitchers: I’m really torn on my thoughts about pitchers today. I know that my heart is telling me that I should use a pitcher that actually has something to play for (Verlander, Tillman, Price, Wainwright, Moore, Sanchez, and Gausman) but my head tells me that these guys are actually a little risky because of the stakes of the game. There is no way a manager is going to let his guy work out of a bad situation when he can unload his bullpen to give his team a shot at the post season. Look at how Michael Wacha got the hook after one inning yesterday; these managers aren’t taking any chances with their playoff lives on the line. You’ll notice I did include two of those guys on my list (explanation to come) but that doesn’t mean this concern is going to go away. Similarly, I don’t think that CLE or BOS are going to go too crazy to one up the other team for home field advantage. They’d rather come in fresh than have home field (I think).
The Mets clinched the right to host the Wild Card game yesterday. They have zero reason at all to use anyone of value in this game today. They have been so ravaged by injuries that they should probably tell Cespedes, Bruce, Asdrubal, Granderson, and company to not even come to the ballpark. I’d be seriously shocked if Terry Collins had any regular in their lineup today. This is a great thing for Jerad Eickhoff. He’s been pitching very well over his last few starts (3 ER or less in seven straight starts) and we know he can rack up the strikeouts. I see no reason that Philly doesn’t send him out there and let him tear it up for 6 or more innings.
See what I just said about the Mets? Apply the same logic to the Indians…most likely. Right now they are still in a battle with Boston for who gets to host the Divisional Round games (is that what they’re called?) but I don’t think they’ll expose too many guys in this one. You may see some of their big guns get the start but I doubt they’ll all finish the game. On top of that, Kennedy is excellent at Kauffman Stadium. He’s actually been really good overall in his last 10 starts with a 2.97 ERA. That’s elite production for an AL pitcher. One other factor that lead me to Kennedy tonight is that his K-rate against CLE is higher than his season average, so he’s got something going for him there. I could totally see a 6IP/6K/2ER type of game.
Kevin Gausman is one of the pitchers that actually has something to play for today. The Orioles, Blue Jays, and Tigers are still vying to see who will be the Wild Card but regardless of today’s results the Orioles will play at least one more game. They’ll either clinch the Wild Card outright or they will be in a playoff to determine who the Wild Card in. Regardless, they can’t afford to blow through their pitchers. This means Gausman should have a longer leash than any of the other pitchers who have something to play for. The Yankees are toast so there’s no reason to think that they are going to have anything going for them in this game. I love Gausman’s upside and he’s been great in the 2nd half of the season. Over his last 10 games he’s averaging 6IP/6K/2ER and he’s dominated the Yankees with 32 K in 33 innings with only 3 ER allowed. This is his time to shine.
Matt Moore is the other pitcher with something to play for but I think he’s going to have a much shorter leash than Gausman if he gets into trouble. The reason he’s on my list today is how well he handled the Dodgers so far this year. LA is also in the position where they don’t really care if they win or lose this game so I doubt they’ll have any of their big bats playing. If Moore can get to 6 innings, he’s got the potential to have a really nice game. He’s already taken a no-hitter into the 9th against the Dodgers this year so if they do play their usual starters, he’s shown he can handle them. I’m not all in, but I do like this play a lot.
Hey, it’s the last day of the season so why not run out one more RHP against the Brewers? It worked like a charm in the first two games of the series with Chad Bettis and Jeff Hoffman so let’s throw German Marquez out there to see what he can do. We’re firmly in the Ryan Vogelsong Corollary zone with Marquez so cheap so it’s not like he has to dominate to be a value. It wouldn’t have felt right to leave off an RHP against MIL at this point…seriously, the success rate over the last month or so has been well over 85%. You know you want to. Do it. Do it!
You didn’t think I’d skip the Braves on the last day of the season, did you? I know they’ve got a horrible matchup against Justin Verlander but they’ve dominated in tough matchups the entire second half of the season. What a perfect way to cap their year, by ruining the Tigers chance at the post season. There’s no talking me out of this one…let’s go Braves. I’m using Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis, Adonis Garcia, and Dansby Swanson.
I don’t know how it happened but all of the sudden I’m falling in love with the SD rookies. They’re so much fun to watch and they are hitting the tar out of the baseball. I don’t know much about Matt Koch but I don’t like his chances to slow down this SD offense right now. These kids are so green they don’t know that they’re supposed to be bad. I’m going to roll out Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe, Ryan Schimpf, and Manuel Margot.
STL has to have this game and they’re going to come out with laser focus. Fortunately for them, they get to face the hot mess that is Ryan Vogelsong. Outside of one pretty good start against the Brewers (for which the Ryan Vogelsong Corollary is named), he’s been bad this year. He’s rocking a 5.98 ERA over his last 10 games with no good peripherals to speak of. STL should hang a big number on him today. I’m going to go with Jedd Gyorko, Brandon Moss, Matt Holliday, and Aledyms Diaz for my stack.
I don’t know what a Brady Rodgers is but I do know that he’s got a terrible ERA in very limited work this year (19.29 in 4.2 innings of work). This doesn’t leave me with many high hope for the kid. The Angels offense is kind of gross but it’s quite possible they come out today and just lay one on this kid. I’ll make sure to pay attention to their lineup but if they go with their regulars I’ll be using Cron, Calhoun, Trout, and Escobar.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.