The Longball (Daily GPP Plays): September 25th, 2016
September 25, 2016 | Doug Shain
Hello and welcome to the Longball for September 25, 2016.
***I don’t know how to properly eulogize Jose Fernandez in an article designed to be zany and wacky. I don’t even know if it’s appropriate to do so but it’s not like I can ignore it either. He was one of my favorite baseball players and a true gem of the game. He had an inspiring story and by all accounts he was a good person off the field. It is such a tragedy that he was taken from this world at such a young age. He will be sorely missed; may he rest in peace. ***
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
|1) Taijuan Walker (SEA/RHP) @ Minnesota Twins: $7.4 FD; $9.5 DK||New York Mets vs Jake Thompson (PHI/RHP)||Fanduel: Taijuan Walker ($7400), Victor Martinez ($3600), Miguel Cabrera ($4000), Logan Forsythe ($3000), Evan Longoria ($3400), Asdrubal Cabrera ($3400), Yoenis Cespedes ($3800), George Springer ($3800), Michael Conforto ($2500)|
|2) Marco Estrada (TOR/RHP) vs New York Yankees: $7.7 FD; $8.8 DK||Houston Astros vs Daniel Wright (LAA/RHP)||Draft Kings: Joe Musgrove ($7100), Robert Gsellman ($5200), Russell Martin ($3400), Miguel Cabrera ($5400), Jose Altuve ($5300), Evan Longoria ($5000), Carlos Correa ($4800), Mark Trumbo ($4800), Adam Jones ($4600), Justin Upton ($4300)|
|3) Joe Musgrove (HOU/RHP) vs Los Angeles Angels: $7.2 FD; $7.1 DK||Baltimore Orioles vs Braden Shipley (ARI/RHP)|
|4) Robert Gsellman (NYM/RHP) vs Philadelphia Phillies: $6.5 FD; $5.2 DK||Detroit Tigers vs Edinson Volguez (KC/RHP)|
|5) Brandon Finnegan (CIN/LHP) @ Milwaukee Brewers: $8.5 FD; $6.9 DK|
|Other pitchers to consider: Tyler Glasnow, Dylan Bundy||Other stacks to consider: Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays||Lineup Notes:
In his last 3 starts, Taijuan Walker hasn’t been half bad. He’s accumulated 20 K and only given up 6 ER over those starts. A little bit of those stats are skewed by a huge performance against the Angels last week but he was still usable in those other two starts. I don’t like his price at all on DK but on FD he’s priced perfectly to take the shot that you get the guy with the 6IP/8K upside. MIN is not the same offensive juggernaut they were the last time Walker faced them so I’m much less afraid of this matchup than I would have been a few weeks ago.
The New York Yankees have been shutout in three straight games. I’m not saying they’re going to get shutout again today, but Marco Estrada is a fine pitcher and he should be able to handle this deteriorating Yankees offense. Estrada has struggled a bit over his last ten starts (an ERA over 5.00) but he has hit 6 strikeouts or more in three of his last four outings. There are silver linings amongst his clouds. Much like with Walker, I prefer to use Estrada on FD where I’m just that much more comfortable with his price.
Joe Musgrove is like a poor man’s version of Jose Fernandez; great at home and garbage on the road (1.86 ERA with a 10.24 K/9 at home versus a 7.27 ERA with a 6.23 K/9 on the road). Today he’s at home against a very beatable Angels squad (despite LA’s success over the last few games). What I like best about this matchup is that Musgrove should have no issue getting a bunch of run support as his offense gets to face Daniel Wright. Musgrove’s price is great, particularly on DK, and he allows you to go out and grab some big bats for you lineup.
Today’s RVC (Ryan Vogelsong Corollary) candidate is Robert Gsellman against the Phillies. I know that Philadelphia has put up some solid numbers in this series but Gsellman might actually be the best pitcher they have faced all weekend. His price is so low that you don’t really need more than 13 DK points for him to hit value. He’s done that in four his seven appearances this year (not all starts). He has decent strikeout upside (just under 8.0 K/9) and Philly can definitely be a free-swinging team. Being that it’s Sunday, we may very well see a number of the better bats on PHI take the day off. Either way, I like using Gsellman for salary relief while I load up my lineup.
For the 2nd night I want to yell “go away Fanduel, you’re drunk” when I see some of their prices (Chen at $8.0k last night and Finnegan at $8.5k tonight) but that doesn’t mean we can use Brandon Finnegan on DK today. I know that the Brewers are pretty good against LHP but I’m riding this Finnegan thing until he’s not striking people out anymore (9.96 K/9 in the 9 starts previous to his most recent, bad, outing). He’s had a Robbie Ray/Matt Shoemaker “strikes everyone out from out of nowhere” kind of mojo going and that’s a mojo I’m going to stick with.
I was really upset at the Mets yesterday for essentially giving up when they got down 10-6. They yanked all of their starters, thus ruining many a DFS lineup. Ironically, the backups came in and put up a good game. Terry Collins is a bad manager but that doesn’t mean we can’t go back to his team again today. The Mets need this game and they’re going to come out strong. Jake Thompson has been much improved lately but he’s not setting the world on fire. I’m going with Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, and Michael Conforto for my team.
Daniel Wright’s best start during his short career saw him give up 3 ER in 5 innings. That’s not a very good “best start of my career” kind of start. HOU is fading but their Wild Card dreams aren’t dead just yet. I don’t see how they don’t go out and put a big hurting on the young fella from LA. I’m going all upside here with Correa, Springer, Altuve, and Gattis for my stack.
In his last nine starts, Braden Shipley has gotten blown out in four of them. None of the offense that did the blowing out were nearly as good as this Orioles offense. Baltimore is clinging to the last Wild Card spot and seems to be coming together offensively at just the right time. Just like Houston, I think they put up a big number on a team that has nothing to play for. I’m going with Trumbo, Jones, Machado, and Alvarez.
Perhaps you’re sensing a theme here, but the Tigers have something to play for today as they stand just a half game back of the last Wild Card spot. Edinson Volquez on the road throws about as well as I do (5.45 ERA with 12 HR allowed in under 80 innings pitched). He’s been a little better than that against DET this year (4.05 ERA) but he’s been getting hit pretty hard recently (including a 7IP/4ER game against DET) and I can’t see him turning that around today. My stack for DET is Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton, and Cameron Maybin.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.