The Longball (Daily GPP Plays): September 26th, 2016
September 26, 2016 | Doug Shain
Hello and welcome to the Longball for September 26, 2016.
***Irresponsible or not, I won’t be writing about Miami Marlins games the rest of the season. Far be it from me to hypothesize on how a team is going to respond to the death of a teammate. I respect your right to use both the Marlins and their opponents, and for the sake of your ROI you may have to, but I just feel wrong writing about it.***
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
|1) JA Happ (TOR/LHP) vs New York Yankees: $8.9 FD; $10.1 DK||Tampa Bay Rays @ James Shields (CWS/RHP)||Fanduel: JA Happ ($8900), Martin Maldonado ($2500), CJ Cron ($3000), Robinson Cano ($3300), Evan Longoria ($3500), Brad Miller ($3700), Kevin Kiermaier ($3500), Corey Dickerson ($3300), Domingo Santana ($3200)|
|2) Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA/RHP) @ Houston Astros: $8.0 FD; $7.5 DK||Cleveland Indians @ Buck Farmer (DET/RHP)||Draft Kings: JA Happ ($10100), Hisashi Iwakuma ($7500), Martin Maldonado ($2800), Adam Lind ($3400), Logan Forsythe ($4000), Evan Longoria ($4800), Brad Miller ($4600), Corey Dickerson ($4200), Kevin Kiermaier ($4200), Domingo Santana ($4300)|
|3) Jaime Garcia (STL/LHP) vs Cincinnati Reds: $7.3 FD; $6.8 DK||Seattle Mariners @ Colin McHugh (HOU/RHP)||Fantasy Draft: Corey Kluber ($26000), Jared Weaver ($12400), Robinson Cano ($8100), Martin Maldonado ($5400), Evan Longoria ($9300), Seth Smith ($6900), Corey Dickerson ($8000), Nelson Cruz ($8000), Kevin Kiermaier ($8100), Logan Forsythe ($7800)|
|4) Jared Weaver (LAA/RHP) vs Oakland Athletics: $6.5 FD; $6.2 DK||Milwaukee Brewers @ Martin Perez (TEX/LHP)|
|5) Corey Kluber (CLE/RHP) @ Detroit Tigers: $11.0 FD; $13.5 DK|
|Other pitchers to consider: Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly||Other stacks to consider: Chicago Cubs, Texas Rangers||Lineup Notes:
The Yankees have scored a grand total of 3 runs in the last four games (and all of them were yesterday). This offense has petered out and they’re just playing out the string at this point. Outside of Gary “Kevin Maas” Sanchez (do you prefer Shane Spencer??) I don’t know who there is to fear in this lineup. Happ has been one of the best pitchers in the entire AL this year and he needs to come up big with the Blue Jays clinging on to the Wild Card lead. He’s 3-0 against New York this year with a 2.39 ERA and a 7.18 K/9. I actually think he can be closer to a full strikeout per inning guy in this start as he’s upped his K-rate over his last 10 starts. I don’t mind his high price on DK because there are cheap pitchers I’m very comfortable pairing him with.
One of those cheap pitchers is Hisashi Iwakuma. It doesn’t get talked about a lot, but Iwakuma has a little Francisco Liriano/Ubaldo Jimenez in him. He’s either really good or really bad. I like him against Houston because they strike out a ton and Iwakuma takes full advantage of that. On the season he’s 6.52 K/9 pitcher but against Houston he’s a 12.18 K/9 pitcher. There’s something about this matchup that just works for him. I love the price on both sites and his strikeout upside covers a lot of his “I give up a lot of runs”-iness. I’m buying today.
Jaime Garcia has spent a few weeks in the STL bullpen but today he’s been called upon to start for the Redbirds in their quest to make the NL Wild Card game. The time away will probably be good for him as he comes into this game fresh. The matchup is great for him against a Reds team that is done this year (yes, they’ve been done for a while). Two of his four most recent starts came against Cincy and he was really good in those starts (14IP/4ER/12K). At his low price, he doesn’t need to even average that to make him a worthwhile play. I think he’s got a really nice floor for a cheap pitcher and an awesome ceiling (think 7IP/8K/2ER). I’m more than happy to use him with Happ or Kluber if you’re not a believer in Iwakuma.
I know it seems nuts, but Jared Weaver is actually pretty good at home. In his last two home starts he handled both Toronto and Texas with a combined line of 12.2IP/4ER/12K. Considering his low price and even lower expectations, that’s outstanding production. This guy was once and ace and he can still turn it on from time to time. I didn’t think it would be possible with the way he was pitching earlier in the year but he’s shown that there’s still some gas left in the tank. His price puts him firmly into RVC (Ryan Vogelsong Corollary) territory so it’s not like he needs to hit those 8K’s to pay off his price. Give me a 6IP/5K/2ER type of game and I’m going to be thrilled. Add in a win and he’s golden.
If I’m going to go all the way up on a pitcher today it’s going to be for Kluber. I know the matchup looks rough but Kluber has killed DET all year (24IP/5ER/24K with a 3-0 record in 3 starts). CLE is still battling for home field advantage and they’re not going to let a game against Buck Farmer pass without going all out of a win. I think the DET matchup may scare some people off so I’m very inclined to use Kluber on DK despite his high price. Pair him up with Weaver or Garcia and you can effectively lower his price to $10k. Given his recent history against DET, that shouldn’t be a hard number to get value out of.
James went full Shields in his last start while giving up 6 ER in 5IP to a Phillies team that is very similar to this Rays team. Tampa Bay has been doing pretty well offensively so it’s not like we are taking a huge chance with a team like the Padres. I love the idea of Forsythe, Miller, Longoria, Dickerson, and Kiermaier getting to take their hacks against this hack of a pitcher. They’re a little pricey but that will actually keep their ownership to a reasonable level.
Happy Buck Farmer Day everyone! When Buck Farmer pitches, stack against him. It’s a pretty simple concept. In his last outing against CLE, Farmer gave up 3 ER in 2.2 innings pitched. I think we’ll get similar results today from a CLE offense that’s looking to lock down home field advantage in the AL. Let’s go with Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez, and whoever starts between Lonnie Chisenhall, Abraham Almonte, and Rajai Davis (ranked in that order). I’m perfectly happy to just use a 3 man stack if that’s what fits.
The Mariners are swinging hot bats right now and they’re making their last push for a playoff spot. They’ve got a good matchup today against Colin McHugh, who they hit really well historically (though they’ve struggled this year). I’m not going to get too fancy here and will use their best hitters in this one. Let’s go with Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, and Adam Lind. Seth Smith is in play in the OF as well if you want to save some money.
Milwaukee against a lefty is one of my DFS staples. Today they not only get a lefty, but they get one in a good ballpark. The only issue there is with using MIL today is that they are really expensive on DK/Fantasy Draft. That high price will definitely keep ownership down but it also makes them a really risky play since, overall, they are a bad offense. Still, I like the matchup against Martin Perez so I’m going to roll them out. I’ll look at Domingo Santana, Martin Maldonado, Ryan Braun, and Chris Carter. Jonathan Villar is in play as well, although I’d rather spend my money on Brad Miller at SS today.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.