The Longball (Daily GPP Plays): September 30th, 2016
September 30, 2016 | Doug Shain
Hello and welcome to the Longball for September 30, 2016.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
|1) Robert Gsellman (NYM/RHP) @ Philadelphia Phillies: $6.9k; $6.6k||Atlanta Braves vs Daniel Norris (DET/LHP)||Fanduel: Rich Hill ($9400), Evan Gattis ($3000), Freddie Freeman ($4100), Robinson Cano ($3300), Adonis Garcia ($2800), Dansby Swanson ($3100), Matt Kemp ($3000), Nelson Cruz ($4000), Hunter Renfroe ($2200)|
|2) Taijuan Walker (SEA/RHP) vs Oakland Athletics: $7.5 FD; $8.9 DK||Chicago White Sox vs Tyler Duffey (MIN/RHP)||Draft Kings: Rich Hill ($11300), Robert Gsellman ($6600), Austin Hedges ($2800), Adam Lind ($3300), Robinson Cano ($5300), Adonis Garcia ($4100), Dansby Swanson ($3400), Matt Kemp ($4700), Hunter Renfroe ($3500), Nelson Cruz ($5000)|
|3) Carlos Rodon (CWS/LHP) vs Minnesota Twins: $8.4 FD; $10.7 DK||Houston Astros @ Daniel Wright (LAA/RHP)||Fantasy Draft: Robert Gsellman ($13200), Rich Hill ($22000), Kyle Seager ($8700), Dansby Swanson ($6600), Evan Gattis ($7600), Hunter Renfroe ($6800), Adam Eaton ($8000), Matt Kemp ($9200), Robinson Cano ($10400), Seth Smith ($7500)|
|4) Rich Hill (LAD/LHP) @ San Francisco Giants: $9.4 FD; $11.3 DK||Seattle Marniers vs Raul Alcantara (OAK/RHP)|
|5) Chad Bettis (COL/RHP) vs Milwaukee Brewers: $6.0 FD; $5.7 DK|
|Other pitchers to consider: Yu Darvish, Yordano Ventura, Matt Wisler||Other stacks to consider: Colorado Rockies, Boston Red Sox, San Diego Padres|
I’m as shocked on the price for Robert Gsellman tonight as I was the price for Alex Reyes last night. Both of these young pitchers are doing great right now but the major sites just haven’t moved on their pricing. Just like Reyes last night, I expect another solid outing from Gsellman that far outperforms his salary. He strikes people out and doesn’t give up HR. That’s a great combination no matter what site you use him on. I’m a little worried about the pluck factor of the Phillies but in this case I think the good pitching is going to win out over the plucky hitting.
After a pretty rough run of starts, Walker has come back to respectability over his last three outings. He was outstanding against the Angels on Sept 13 but his last two starts showed some signs of promise as well (10.2IP/6ER/13K). I’d like the see the number of earned runs go down but that strikeout rate sure makes up for a lot of mistakes. I know that the A’s aren’t the most strikeout prone team in the league but Walker has shown well against them this year (13.1IP/3ER/10K/1BB in 2 starts) and his price is very appealing.
Carlos Rodon – borderline elite pitcher. We’re finally at that point; good for him. He’s been pitching great over the 2nd half of the season and that success has been spurred on by his vast improvement in control. His K to BB ratio is well over 3:1 over his last 10 starts and he’s still K’ing a batter per inning. That’s a great combo and it actually puts him back in play on DK. When he was walking everyone under the sun you couldn’t touch him there but now he’s a very reasonable play on the two pitcher site. He’s a little pricey on DK (I still prefer him on FD) but even with this increased salary he’s been a decent value in about half his starts over the last few weeks. MIN has been a pretty good matchup for him as he’s put together a 2-1 record with nearly a strikeout per inning. If he can reduced the earned runs against him (12 ER in 25 innings in 4 starts against MIN) he would really threaten a huge score tonight.
It always seems like the Giants and Dodgers are about to engaged in a major pitcher’s duel. Tonight should be no different with Rich Hill opposing Madison Bumgarner. MadBum hasn’t been all that impressive as of late so I’m going to ride the hotter and cheaper Rich Hill. Yes, there’s the injury risk factor with Hill but I’ll take that chance with a guy who is going to get me a 6IP/8K game every time he doesn’t get injured. I expect an excellent effort out of Hill tonight and I love the idea of pairing him with Gsellman on DK.
We only have a few days left in the season (thank goodness, MLB is a grind) but there’s still enough time to have the ultimate “start any RHP against the Brewers” test. Today we get Chad Bettis (a terrible pitcher) facing the Brewers at Coors Field (the worst park in which to use a pitcher). Is the anti-MIL theory stronger than the Coors factor? Aren’t you at least a little excited to make one nutty HuLo (High Upside, Low Ownership) lineup just to find out? If you’re as screwy as I am, then you answer is a resounding “YES! YES! YES!” Full disclosure, I tend to lose my mind a bit at the end of MLB season.
The answer to every question, ever, is “stack ATL.” I’m going to give my student a quiz tomorrow on the 3 branches of government and every answer is wrong if it doesn’t say “stack ATL” (to any parent reading this, Mr. Shain is very much kidding….about the answers, not the quiz). Seriously though, has there been a game where ATL has disappointed since we’ve been on this run? They even whupped up on a lefty Tuesday night. We’re in that same situation tonight as they face Daniel Norris (usually a Longball favorite). I’m riding ATL until they stop making my readers money. Let’s go with Matt Kemp, Tyler Flowers, Dansby Swanson, and Adonis Garcia. You can use Freddie Freeman with little issue as well, and I might, as he’s got an equally stunning .307 BA against both RHP and LHP.
Last night’s “one last chance to stack against Ubaldo” idea didn’t work out so well but I’m going back down that path with tonight’s “one last chance to stack against Tyler Duffey” play. The White Sox continue to be a very “meh” offense but they can hit the Longball and I do love that about them. Duffey has an 8.00 ERA over his last 10 starts despite a very nice outing last week. I’m going to trust the crappy ERA over the one good start (he rarely has back to back good starts). Let’s go with Jose Abreu, Adam Eaton, Todd Frazier, and Tim Anderson.
Houston lets me down time and again but they couldn’t possibly do that against Daniel Wright, could they? Wright has given up a minimum of 3 ER in every start he’s had this season (6.95 ERA in 34 innings pitched). In his one start against the Astros he probably pitched his best game of the season with 6IP/3ER/4K. That’s a really bad best game. I’m going to use Gattis, Correa, Bregman, and Springer. You can obviously use Altuve but he’s a little too rich for my blood tonight.
Seattle may not have put up a big score last night but they were still on base a ton and their big bats are hitting very well. Alcantera does nothing for me outside of his decent strikeout rate. Seattle cares not about a strikeout rate. They are going to swing for the fences and a lot of the time they are going to succeed. They’re seeing the ball well right now and a few bounces here or there are all they need to explode. I’m going with Adam Lind, Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano, and Kyle Seager.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.