The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – April 12, 2017
April 12, 2017 | Doug Shain
The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays)
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for April 12, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
***These plays are NOT ranked in order of preference***
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Jesse Chavez (LAA/RHP) vs Texas Rangers: $7.5k DK/$6.0k FD||Cincinnati Reds @ Ivan Nova (PIT/RHP)||Fanduel: Marcus Stroman ($8600), JT Realmuto ($2600), Lucas Duda ($2600), Scooter Gennett ($2400), Jake Lamb ($3400), Chris Owings ($3200), Yoenis Cespedes ($3800), Giancarlo Stanton ($3600), Mookie Betts ($4800)|
|Mike Fiers (HOU/RHP) @ Seattle Mariners: $8.2k DK/$7.3k FD||Arizona Diamondbacks @ Matt Cain (SF/RHP)||Draft Kings: Marcus Stroman ($9300), Amir Garrett ($5800), JT Realmuto ($2600), Paul Goldschmidt ($4600), Rougned Odor ($4100), Kris Bryant ($5100), Chris Owings ($3200), Mookie Betts ($5500), Giancarlo Stanton ($4700), Andrew Benintendi ($4100)|
|Amir Garrett (CIN/LHP) @ Pittsburgh Pirates: $5.8k DK/$6.1k FD||New York Mets @ Vincent Velasquez (PHI/RHP)||Fantasy Draft: Marcus Stroman ($18000), Shelby Miller ($14800), Anthony Rizzo ($10000), Freddie Freeman ($9300), Paul Goldschmidt ($9000), Giancarlo Stanton ($9200), Michael Saunders ($7200), Marcel Ozuna ($7200), Yoenis Cespedes ($8700), Chris Owings ($6300)|
|Chalk Pitchers : John Lackey, Marcus Stroman, Ivan Nova||Chalk Stacks: Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays, Miami Marlins|
Jesse Chavez (LAA): Which Jesse Chavez do we believe is the real one: the guy who looked like garbage in his first start or the competent starter we saw in his second start? I think he’s probably somewhere in between but we also have seen Chavez be a reliable fantasy starter in the past so I’m willing to give him a shot tonight at home. If we can get a start like he had against Seattle last week (5.2IP/6K/1ER) then I’m going to be a very happy camper. The Rangers have a .220 BA with a 27.7% K-rate against RHP on the young season. That bodes well for Chavez and I think he’s a nice option to pair with a guy like Lackey or Stroman on 2-pitcher sites.
Mike Fiers (HOU): The Seattle Mariners are struggling on offense this year. This is especially true against RHP against whom they only have a .206 BA and .596 OPS. Along with this they have a 26.6% K-rate, which is no bueno. These stats are pretty reliable at this point in the season seeing as Seattle has more AB against RHP than any team in the majors. They are just flat out slumping. This game being played at Safeco is not a plus for Seattle as the park tends to favor pitchers. Fiers, for his part, looked decent in his first start of the season and is pushing to keep his rotation spot once Collin McHugh returns from the DL. It’s not unreasonable to think that we might see a game of 6IP/6K out of Fiers tonight; he’s been a K per inning guy in the past.
Amir Garrett (CIN): What a debut we got from Garrett last week! The 4 strikeouts were nice but what I really liked was the 0.67 WHIP and 6 innings pitched (the zero ER was an added bonus). At the price we are paying for this kid, we don’t need much more than that return to make him a very useful starter in a GPP, especially on a 2 pitcher site (though I’m not opposed to using him on FD and shooting the moon with our bats). It sure doesn’t hurt that he’s facing the Pirates tonight. Pittsburgh is one of the worst teams in the majors so far this year against LHP. They have a .154 BA, .396 OPS, a total of 2 runs scored in 52 AB against LHP. Add in the 36.5% K-rate (great googily moogily!) and this has the makings of a very fruitful outing for young Mr. Garrett. I love using him with Marcus Stroman on DK (see the sample lineup) and loading up with bats.
Cincinnati Reds: The Cincinnati Reds have been a very pleasant surprise this year on offense. Only nine teams have scored more runs against RHP than Cincy and only six have more hits. None of those six teams have as few AB against RHP as the Reds. This makes Cincinnati a pretty sneaky GPP option tonight against the ever erratic Ivan Nova. I know that Nova has been really good since his arrival in Pittsburgh, including a very respectable first start of the season, but these Reds are just clicking right now and they’re a team I’m going to want to ride for a while. I really like the top of their lineup with Hamilton, Peraza, Votto, and Duvall but I’m not opposed to looking lower at guys like Scooter Gennett, Eugenio Suarez, and Scott Schebler if you wanted to hunt and peck a bit instead of a straight stack. Schebler, a lefty with 2 HR on the season already, is going to be one of my go to punt plays tonight if I don’t stack the top of this lineup.
Arizona Diamondbacks: I don’t know if I’m off on my assessment of ARI as a HuLo team or not; they very well could be chalk tonight against Matt Cain. I’m going to count on Cain’s name value and the fact that ARI is on the road to keep the ownership down enough that the D’Backs qualify as HuLo. Either way, I like them a lot tonight against Cain (who is clearly toast). No team in the majors has a higher BA, more runs scored, or more SB against RHP than Arizona. The more I look at these stats, the more I hope that I’m right about these guys being low owned. Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Owings, Jake Lamb, and David Peralta would be my stack of choice if the lineup shakes out in a way that they are close to each other in the batting order. Owings won’t keep this up all season but he’s batting .345 with 4 SB right now and I’m riding this as if he were Emilio Bonifacio of 2011. If you want to save a little bit of cap space then Brandon Drury and Chris Herrmann are two guys I’d look at if they were placed high enough in the batting order.
New York Mets: I liked this pick a lot more before the Mets exploded for a bunch of runs last night. Now it just looks like I’m chasing points. I can assure you that I had NYM down as a sneaky play long before their first AB on Tuesday night. The thing about this matchup is that Vincent Velasquez is an electric pitcher who happens to be incredibly wild. He’s going to strike out 8+ guys but that may come with 5 walks, 8 hits, and 6 runs. If I’m going to stack Mets then I have to look at some of their big boppers so I’m choosing guys like Jay Bruce, Yoenis Cespedes, and Lucas Duda. I’ll probably add in Asdrubal Cabrera as he’s got a relatively nice floor and should be scoring runs if the big boys are doing their thing. If Michael Conforto is in the lineup I’m going to take a long look at him as well as long as he’s hitting near the top of the order.
Other names to consider:
Shelby Miller (ARI/RHP): I don’t know if I totally believe what I saw in his first start this year (7K in 5.1IP) but the guy was traded for Dansby Swanson and was once a high level prospect. He’s not terribly far removed from a time when people did believe in him. I wouldn’t have a high level of exposure to him but I’m not opposed to a little bit of Miller in my lineups (especially on 2 pitcher sites).
Michael Saunders (PHI/OF): I love the L/R matchup here and Saunders has been playing well for Philly this year. Zach Wheeler wasn’t very good for the Mets in his debut this year and while I think he will eventually turn it around (nice buy low in season long), it’s not going to happen tonight.
Pablo Sandoval (BOS/3B): All the BvP love here. The Panda has 5 XBH and a .359 BA in 39 career AB against Ubaldo.
Nick Markakis (ATL/OF): While he hasn’t gone yard against Tom Koehler, Markakis does have 3 2B and a .588 BA in 17 career AB against the Miami righty and he’s hot right now with hits in each of his last six games.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.