The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – April 13, 2017
April 13, 2017 | Doug Shain
The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays)
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for April 13, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
***These plays are NOT ranked in order of preference***
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS/LHP) vs Pittsburgh Pirates: $6.6k DK/$7.6k FD||Cincinnati Reds vs Jimmy Nelson (MIL/RHP)||Fanduel (late): Jon Gray ($7800), Welington Castillo ($2800), Joey Votto ($3700), Jose Peraza ($3000), Manny Machado ($3700), Asdrubal Cabrera ($3200), Adam Jones ($3700), Billy Hamilton ($3200), Adam Duvall ($3600)|
|Luis Severino (NYY/RHP) vs Tampa Bay Rays: $6.2k DK/$6.7k FD||Los Angeles Angels vs Yu Darvish (TEX/RHP)||Draft Kings (early): Eduardo Rodriguez ($6600), Josh Tomlin ($6200), Jonathan Lucroy ($4000), Miguel Cabrera ($4900), Rougned Odor ($4000), Kris Bryant ($5100), Francisco Lindor ($4700), Mike Trout ($5300), Kole Calhoun ($3700), Mookie Betts ($5500)|
|Josh Tomlin (CLE/RHP) vs Chicago White Sox: $6.2k DK/$7.7k FD||New York Yankees vs Matt Andriese (TB/RHP)||Draft Kings (late): Jon Gray ($10000), Luis Severino ($6200), Welington Castillo ($3500), Joey Votto ($4900), Jose Peraza ($4000), Travis Shaw ($3800), Starlin Castro ($3600), Adam Duvall ($4400), Billy Hamilton ($4300), Ryan Braun ($5100)|
|Chalk Pitchers : Madison Bumgarner, Yu Darvish, Jonathan Gray, Robert Gsellman||Chalk Stacks: Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Texas Rangers|
Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS/LHP): In case you missed last night’s article, the Pittsburgh Pirates are horrendous against LHP this season. True to form, they got manhandled by Amir Garrett last night (who??) and tonight it’s Rodriguez’s turn. Rodriguez didn’t look great in his first start of the season (5IP/5K/4ER) but that was against lefty-killing Detroit. Pittsburgh is no Detroit. As a matter of fact, the Pirates have a 31.7% K-rate to go along with their .159 BA and 1 HR against left-handed pitching on the season. The best part about using Rodriguez is that his price is such that he doesn’t need a big game to pay off his salary. Give me 5IP/5K/3ER with a win (not unlikely with Boston facing Chad Kuhl) and I’m a happy camper.
Luis Severino (NYY/RHP): A 6:1 K to BB ratio in only 5 innings of work shows the kind of strikeout upside that Severino is capable of. The current Rays roster has a career .242 BA and 36.3% K-rate against Severino in their career (albeit in a small sample size of 33 AB). While the Rays have shown some power against RHP this year, that power has come with a high number of strikeouts. Tampa Bay has a 29.8% K-rate against RHP on the season. Severino is priced very well tonight and you don’t need a monster out of him for him to hit value. A game similar to his first start (5IP/6K/4ER) is both realistic and suitable.
Josh Tomlin (CLE/RHP): At first glance it would appear that Josh Tomlin was awful in his first start of the season. While I don’t think that 6 ER in 4.2 IP is good at all, there are elements of that start to give me hope for a turnaround from Tomlin tonight. First of all, he had 6K’s and only 1BB so control wasn’t really an issue for him. He also had a very nice 10:2 ground ball to fly ball ratio, a ratio that would indicate that he’s not going to get burned by the home run ball. As a matter of fact, couple that rate with his lack of walks and it’s going to be a rare occurrence when Tomlin gives up a big inning. Today’s game against the White Sox should be more favorable than the last matchup which was against the best hitting team in baseball (the Diamondbacks) at the second most hitter friendly ballpark in baseball (Chase Field). If Tomlin continues to pitch like he did last week then that BABIP is going to stabilize and his stats should come around, making him a very attractive target today in a short slate.
Cincinnati Reds: I’m riding these Reds until they let me down. They came through last night in a big way and are one of the best offenses to use in DFS right now. That top four of Billy Hamilton, Jose Peraza, Joey Votto, and Adam Duvall are coming through time and again. Today they have the added bonus of a great BvP against Jimmy Nelson to further cement their HuLo status. Overall the four of these guys have .365 BA with 1 HR, 9 RBI, and 9 SB against Nelson. With the roll that these guys are on it wouldn’t shock me to see them put up another game of 5+ runs tonight. As with last night, I’m not opposed to taking a look at Eugenio Suarez or Scott Schebler as part of this stack either (or as an individual play if you aren’t stacking Reds).
Los Angeles Angels: It’s not often that you can get Mike Trout as HuLo play but against Yu Darvish I think that might just be the case. The thing is, Trout hits Darvish pretty darn well. As a matter of fact, the trio of Kole Calhoun, Mike Trout, and Albert Pujols have pretty much terrorized him over his career. That group has combined for 8 HR in 77 AB against Darvish. The batting average they have against him isn’t elite (.273) but you’re not rostering this stack for batting average; you want that power. Depending on how the lineup shakes out, I’ll either use Cameron Maybin (my top choice), Yunel Escobar, or Andrelton Simmons for the fourth player in my stack.
New York Yankees: The Yankees have been shockingly good this year. They are one of the five best teams in baseball against RHP by batting average and actually are second in HR. I love what I’m seeing from Aaron Judge right now so he’s definitely going to be a part of my stack. I’m also going to use three of Matt Holiday, Jacoby Ellsbury, Starlin Castro, and Chase Headley. I don’t love Headley, in general, but you can’t deny how well he’s playing at this point. Depending on how I’d want to set up my roster I could make a strong case for sitting Ellsbury in this stack and going with some of the lesser names. The Yankees, Reds, and Orioles would make for a very nice combination of stacks tonight on the later slate.
Other names to consider:
Carlos Gonzalez (COL/OF): For some reason Cargo crushes Madison Bumgarner. In his career, Gonzalez has a .321 BA with 5 HR in 56 AB against MadBum.
Ezequiel Carrera (TOR/OF): I don’t know if he’s going to start but if Carrera is in the lineup then you should use him for salary relief. He’s got a .500 BA with 2 XBH in 10 career AB against Gausman.
Jesse Hahn (OAK/RHP): There’s something about this Oakland pitching staff this year. Kendall Graveman and Jharel Cotton are pitching excellently and it wasn’t too long ago that we thought Hahn could be something (2014 in San Diego). Kansas City is a pretty bad offense against RHP (.197 BA on the year). At his low price, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Hahn go 6 solid innings and compete for a win.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.