The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – April 14, 2017
April 14, 2017 | Doug Shain
The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays)
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for April 14, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
***These plays are NOT ranked in order of preference***
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Chris Archer (TB/RHP) @ Boston Red Sox: $8.4k DK/$9.1k FD||Tampa Bay Rays @ Rick Porcello (BOS/RHP)||Fanduel: Noah Syndergaard ($11200), Mike Zunino ($2100), Jose Abreu ($2800), Brad Miller ($2800), Travis Shaw ($3100), Troy Tulowitzki ($3300), Nelson Cruz ($3500), Avisail Garcia ($3200), Corey Dickerson ($2900)|
|Daniel Norris (DET/LHP) @ Cleveland Indians: $5.5k DK/$6.9k FD||Milwaukee Brewers @ Scott Feldman (CIN/RHP)||Draft Kings: Kendall Graveman ($6400), Clayton Kershaw ($13500), Josh Phegley ($2900), Jose Abreu ($4400), Starlin Castro ($3500), Travis Shaw ($3800), Asdrubal Cabrera ($3600), Corey Dickerson ($3600), Nelson Cruz ($4400), Avisail Garcia ($3900)|
|Kendall Graveman (OAK/RHP) vs Houston Astros: $6.4k DK/$7.6k FD||Chicago White Sox @ Adalberto Mejia (MIN/LHP)||Fantasy Draft: Kendall Graveman ($12800), Noah Syndergaard ($22200), Todd Frazier ($9000, Jose Abreu ($8700), Chris Davis ($7800), Nelson Cruz ($8700), Yoenis Cespedes ($8800), Corey Dickerson ($7200), Eric Thames ($7600), Starlin Castro ($6900)|
|Chalk Pitchers : Clayton Kershaw, Rick Porcello, Noah Syndergaard, Dallas Keuchel||Chalk Stacks: New York Mets, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays|
Chris Archer (TB/RHP): If you were to check the career numbers for Chris Archer against the Boston Red Sox, you might throw up in your mouth a little bit. He just hasn’t been very good against them, especially at Fenway Park. One thing to keep in mind though, a lot of the damage done to Archer has been by David Ortiz. If you haven’t noticed, Big Papi is no longer on the BoSox roster. The rest of the current Boston roster has a career 28.5% K-rate against him. Archer also seems to have turned himself around after a really rough start to his 2016 season. The 2nd half of last season was stellar for him and he’s been really good so far this year (2.46 ERA, 8.86 K/9, 22:13 ground ball to fly ball ratio). What’s most impressive is that those numbers were achieved against good offenses (NYY and TOR). As you’ll read below, I kind of dig the Rays offense today so a win bonus isn’t totally out of the question here either.
Daniel Norris (DET/LHP): I know that the Indians are a really good offense. I also know that Daniel Norris has a 2:3 K to BB ratio in his first start this year. That all said, I think that Norris is priced too low tonight considering his upside. That first start seems more like an aberration rather than a trend with the K:BB ratio. For his career Norris is nearly a 3:1 K:BB guy; nothing at all like what we saw last week. For the season, the Indians only have a .220 BA with 3 HR against LHP. It’s early in the year but not so early that we can’t take advantage of those splits. I’m not saying that Norris is going to come out and give you 8 strong innings but at his price all you really need is a 5IP/5K/3ER and a shot at a win to make him worthwhile. With all the big boy pitching on the slate today, you’re going to have to find value somewhere if you want to get one of those guys on your roster. Norris can provide some of that value.
Kendall Graveman (OAK/RHP): Graveman is currently being priced like 2016 Graveman, not the new and improved 2017 Graveman. The kid has one of the best pitches in the game with his sinker. His 18:6 ground ball to fly ball ratio is a testament to that. Graveman has also seen about a 3 MPH increase in velocity on his fastball which has led to a strikeout rate of nearly a K per inning pitched. If you combine the ability to strike batters out with an extreme groundball pitcher, you’ve got the makings of an ace. I like Graveman as a breakout pitcher this year and will be all over him today at this price. As he continues to pitch like this, you’re going to be looking at an $8.5k+ pitcher, not a guy at the lower mid-tier. Houston is not an ideal matchup but that’s what makes Graveman such a HuLo play tonight.
Tampa Bay Rays: Tampa is a team that I normally target against LHP but the career averages for some of their players against Rick Porcello is leading me to look at them tonight. Brad Miller, Corey Dickerson, and Logan Morrison have combined for a .328 BA with 11 XBH in 61 career AB against Porcello. Nobody is going to be looking at TB tonight so if they are able to get a few runs off Porcello, you’re moving up the GPP leaderboard pretty quickly. Let’s not forget that Porcello has given up 3 ER in each of his first two starts this season. I’ll take that in a heartbeat tonight if the guys getting those runs are a part of my stack. If I wanted to go all the way with this stack I’d probably look to Evan Longoria or Kevin Kiermaier but I’m just as happy using these three guys in a mini-stack.
Milwaukee Brewers: Milwaukee is a team that I normally avoid against RHP but they had a very good night last night against RHP Bronson Arroyo and I think they are in line for another good night tonight against Scott Feldman (the worst opening day starter in MLB this year??). This is not the same Milwaukee team we saw last year with nothing of note from the left hand side of the plate. This year they’ve got Eric Thames and Travis Shaw, and while they aren’t world beaters, they are a lot better than 2016 Milwaukee. Along with Thames and Shaw I’m obviously going to use Ryan Braun and I’ll make my last player Jonathan Villar. Obviously I’ll modify a bit if the lineup shakes out in a way that we don’t see Villar at the top of the order (in which case I’ll look to Keon Broxton) but I’m pretty confident that these four guys are the optimal MIL stack; if they are going to go off, these are the players who will lead the charge.
Chicago White Sox: I don’t know what an Adalberto Mejia is but I do know that he was chased from his first start after only 1.2 innings last week. Chicago doesn’t put a ton of fear in opposing pitchers but they’ve got a little bit of power, even without Todd Frazier, to take advantage of bad LHP. I’m starting my stack with Jose Abreu and following him up with Avisail Garcia (the hot start won’t last all year but he’s better then he showed the last couple of years), Tim Anderson, and probably Melky Cabrera. If we see that Todd Frazier returns to the lineup today then he’s at the top of my list for players I want in this game as he annihilates LHP, particularly bad LHP. This would be the perfect spot for him to have his 2017 breakout game.
Other names to consider:
Cincinnati Reds: I’m not ready to give up on them after one disappointing game last night. Tommy Milone is not a quality starting pitcher and it wouldn’t shock me to see the top of this order have a solid game. If I wanted to just throw one dart out there that wasn’t in the top 4 lineup spots for the Reds, I’d probably consider Eugenio Suarez.
Chris Davis (BAL/1B): Davis has a .375 BA with 3 HR and a 9:5 BB to K ratio against Aaron Sanchez in 16 career AB.
Starlin Castro (NYY/2B): In 22 career AB against Michael Wacha, Castro has a .455 BA with 2 HR.
Dylan Covey (CWS/RHP): Covey hasn’t been able to make his first start of the season yet but doing so against Minnesota is not a terrible spot to be in (MIN only has 6 HR in 177 AB against RHP this season). At a bare minimum price, Covey makes for an interesting pairing with a guy like Clayton Kershaw.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.