The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – April 15, 2017
April 15, 2017 | Doug Shain
The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays)
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for April 15, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
***These plays are NOT ranked in order of preference***
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Alec Asher (BAL/RHP) @ Toronto Blue Jays: $5.2k DK/$6.1k FD||Baltimore Orioles @ Marco Estrada (TOR/RHP)||Fanduel: Ervin Santana ($8200), Manny Pina ($2200), Chris Davis ($3400), Jonathan Villar ($3400), Kris Bryant ($4100), Aledmys Diaz ($3600), Ryan Braun ($4300), Seth Smith ($2500), Domingo Santana ($3300)|
|Ervin Santana (MIN/RHP) vs Chicago White Sox: $7.5k DK/$8.2k FD||Milwaukee Brewers @ Brandon Finnegan (CIN/LHP)||Draft Kings: Lance McCullers ($10400), Ervin Santana ($7500), Manny Pina ($3000), Chris Davis ($4000), Jonathan Schoop ($3300), Nolan Arenado ($4200), Francisco Lindor ($4300), Ryan Braun ($5000), Bryce Harper ($4900), Seth Smith ($3100)|
|Sean Manaea (OAK/LHP) vs Houston Astros: $7.4k DK||Cleveland Indians vs Justin Verlander (DET/RHP)||Fantasy Draft: Ervin Santana ($14800), Tyler Chatwood ($14400), Joey Votto ($9900), Miguel Cabrera ($9600), Chris Davis ($7600), Ryan Braun ($9900), Adam Eaton ($8100), Bryce Harper ($9600), Seth Smith ($6000), Anthony Rizzo ($9900)|
|Tyler Chatwood (COL/RHP) @ San Francisco Giants: $7.3k DK||Detroit Tigers @ Corey Kluber (CLE/RHP)|
|Chalk Pitchers : Chris Sale, Jake Arrieta, Tanner Roark, Lance McCullers||Chalk Stacks: Boston Red Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Chicago Cubs|
Today is stupid (not the games or my picks, just the composition of the slates). There are 10 early games and 5 late games but for some reason the “main” slate is the late slate. To heck with that, I’m focusing on the larger slate today. Sadly, Fanduel has decided to not have a 10 game early slate but instead go with a 6 game slate. Draft Kings and Fantasy Draft both have the full 10 game early slate. I hate split slates.
Alec Asher (BAL/RHP): I’ve seen Asher pitch before I know that he’s no great shakes (he was serviceable in the minors but no real success in the big show). What I also know is that the Blue Jays are a mess right now (as I predicted on Opening Day) and anyone is looking pretty good against them. They are hitting a paltry .185 on the season against RHP. What if I told you that you could get 5IP/4K/3ER and a win out of Asher? Would you be ok with that at his low price? If the answer is yes, and it should be, then I say go ahead and fire away with him (especially as an SP2 on DK/Fantasy Draft).
Ervin Santana (MIN/RHP): We are rapidly getting to the point that we can no longer consider Santana a HuLo play. With names like Sale and Arrieta on the slate I’m going to go ahead and say we’ve got at least this start to still get him out there at a low ownership. I prefer him on FD because at his higher price, there’s really no reason for people to use him over Roark, Martinez, or Quintana. On DK he’s an excellent SP2 so I think we’re going to see a pretty decent ownership for him there (although there are more pitcher choices with the extra four games, so who knows). Anyway, Santana has been dominant since the second half of last year and he’s continued that high level of play into this season (1ER in 13IP for the season, nice). The Sox have the sixth worst OPS against RHP this year and I see no reason for them to turn it around today against Santana. He’s one of my top overall pitchers on the slate.
Sean Manaea (OAK/LHP): Side note, I love the Oakland pitching staff this year. One of the biggest reasons for that love is play of Manaea. He was a beast after the All Star Break last year. This year he’s started a little slowly (7.15 ERA) but his last start showed a lot of promise (10K, 5 base runners in 5.1IP at Texas) and that’s the pitcher I expect to see going forward. Houston has the most AB this year against LHP, by a lot, but they really haven’t done much with those AB. The ownership shouldn’t be too high on Manaea because of the quality of his opponent. A Manaea/Santana combination on DK opens a lot of potential with your bats due to their low prices.
Tyler Chatwood (COL/RHP): 8-1, 1.69 ERA, 4 HR allowed in 80 IP. Those are the numbers that Tyler Chatwood put up away from Coors Field last year. Today’s game is in San Francisco. Coors Field is not in San Francisco. The Giants have shown no power against RHP this year with only 4 HR in 233 AB. In his first road start this year Chatwood gave up 4 ER but he also had a 5:1 K to BB ratio and a 10:4 ground ball to fly ball ratio. If Chatwood can keep the ball out of the air (4 of the 6 fly balls he’s given up this year have gone over the fence) then he should be ok. Remember that stat from earlier about SF’s ineptitude at hitting HR against RHP? That bodes very well for Chatwood today.
Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles may strike out 12 times today but they’ve also got a good shot to put up a decent number of HR if their history against Marco Estrada is any indication. Jonathan Schoop, Chris Davis, and Welington Castillo have all gone yard against Estrada multiple times in their careers and are capable of doing so again today. I have no issue using all three of those guys in a stack and adding in a sneaky Seth Smith if he’s leading off for Baltimore once again. Not using Manny Machado and Adam Jones is a little scary but they don’t hit Estrada well and there’s no point in paying up for them when you can get the BvP at a much cheaper price and spend up big elsewhere (Chris Sale and some Cubbies, perhaps).
Milwaukee Brewers: I have a new man crush and his name is Manny Pina. He has played in only seven games this year but has at least 1 hit in six of them. Last night he went 4 for 5 and just looked so good at the plate. You had to see the game to truly understand how patient he looked at the plate and how he fought off good pitches for base hits. Tonight, against a lefty, he should be back in the lineup and I’m going to be all over him. His price is super and low and if people didn’t check the Milwaukee box score yesterday then his ownership will be low as well. Along with Pina I’m going to fire up Ryan Braun, Jonathan Villar, and Domingo Santana. There may be some gaps in that stack but I don’t want to get any lefties in there (sorry Eric Thames and Travis Shaw) and I’m ok with the gaps if it means saving some money and using Pina over Keon Broxton.
***Game Stack Alert***
I know that Detroit and Cleveland are big time offenses but look at who is on the mound for each team: Justin Verlander and Corey Kluber. Those names alone are going to keep the ownership down on both DET and CLE. They might not be at the sub-5% ownership that I like to see in a HuLo stack but to get these teams at under 10%, which I think they should be, will pay off nicely if they hit like their BvP suggests.
Cleveland Indians: As stated in the little blurb up there, the Indians hit Justin Verlander very well. More specifically Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley, and Carlos Santana hit Justin Verlander very well. The first three of the stack have a combined .317 BA against Verlander, while Santana has hit 7 HR in only 66 AB against him (despite a .197 BA). This stack provides a nice combination of power and safety.
Detroit Tigers: The Tigers have similar success against Corey Kluber. Justin Upton, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and Nick Castellanos all have a .300 BA or higher against the Indians ace. Upton, Cabrera, and Martinez have combined for 10 HR in 93 AB. That’s a lot of power against a guy who is considered one of the ten best pitchers in the game. You’re not going to get a big discount on their prices but that should only further keep the ownership down on this stack.
Other names to consider:
Odubel Herrera (PHI/OF): Herrera has a .467 BA in 15 AB against Tanner Roark in his career.
Brian Dozier (MIN/2B): In 49 AB against Jose Quintana, Dozier has 4 HR.
Carlos Martinez (STL/P): Martinez would have been considered chalk after his first start of the season where he struck out 10 Cubs. Then he got hammered in his next start against Cincinnati (5ER in 5IP). I think it’s a lot more likely that the CMart we are going to see this season is a lot closer to the guy we saw on Opening Night rather than the guy who got crushed by a hot Reds team. I’m not saying he’s a lock for 10K or anything but the Yankees are due for a little slow down now (they’re playing way over their heads) and Martinez is exactly the type of pitcher to do that. This may be one of the only starts this year where you can get him at a low ownership and even lower expectations.
Late Slate Lineups:
Because I’m a nice guy, here are a couple of Late Slate lineups for you.
Fanduel: James Paxton ($8200), Salvador Perez ($3100), Paul Goldschmidt ($4000), Robinson Cano ($3400), Wilmer Flores ($2800), Chris Owings ($2900), Yoenis Cespedes ($4400), Mitch Haniger ($2600), Giancarlo Stanton ($3600)
Draft Kings: James Paxton ($9600), Patrick Corbin ($6500), Salvador Perez ($3500), Wil Myers ($4600), Robinson Cano ($4700), Jake Lamb ($3900), Chris Owings ($3400), Giancarlo Stanton ($4800), Yoenis Cespedes ($4700), Lorenzo Cain ($4300)
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.