The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – April 4, 2017
April 3, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for April 4, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
***These plays are NOT ranked in order of preference***
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Lance McCullers Jr (HOU/RHP) vs Seattle Mariners: $9.5k DK/$8.8K FD||Tampa Bay Rays vs CC Sabathia (NYY/LHP)||Fanduel: Sean Manaea ($6800), Buster Posey ($3300), Anthony Rizzo ($4100), Jose Altuve ($4100), Evan Longoria ($3200), Carlos Correa ($3900), Hunter Pence ($2500), Ryan Braun ($4000), Steven Souza Jr ($2700)|
|Sean Manaea (OAK/LHP) vs Los Angeles Angels: $7.4k DK/$6.8k FD||San Diego Padres @ Kenta Maeda (LAD/RHP)||Draft Kings: Matt Shoemaker ($8400), Johnny Cueto ($10200), Derek Norris ($2600), Anthony Rizzo ($4500), Jose Altuve($4400), Evan Longoria ($4000), Jonathan Villar ($4000), Ryan Braun ($4700), Hunter Pence ($4000), Steven Souza Jr ($3200)|
|Clayton Richard (SD/LHP ) @ Los Angeles Dodgers: $5.2k DK/$6.6k FD||St Louis Cardinals vs Jake Arrieta (CHC/RHP)||Fantasy Draft: Matt Shoemaker ($16200), Lance McCullers Jr ($18400), Jose Altuve ($8700), Evan Longoria ($7600), Anthony Rizzo ($8800), Ryan Braun ($9300), Hunter Pence ($7600), Kyle Schwarber ($8000), Carlos Beltran ($6800), Edwin Encarnacion ($8400)|
|Chalk Pitchers : Johnny Cueto (SF), Matt Shoemaker (LAA), Jake Arrieta (CHC)||Chalk Stacks: Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Cleveland Indians|
Lance McCullers Jr (Houston Astros vs SEA): It’s a pretty rough day for HuLo type pitchers so McCullers makes the list based on the fact that he’s got a tough matchup against a strong Seattle lineup. McCullers was lights out last year when he finally returned to the rotation. He was a little wild with 5.0 BB/9 but he made up for it with a crazy 11.78 K/9 in 81 innings pitched. In his two games against Seattle last year he struck out 18 batters in 12.1 IP (13.14 K/9) and only gave up 2 ER (1.46 ERA). He also “only” walked 5 batters in those games. If we can get 6 innings out of McCullers tonight, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he can threaten double digit K’s. I predict his price/opponent will keep him to a reasonable ownership level, one worthy of HuLo status and a spot on your GPP roster.
Sean Manaea (Oakland A’s vs LAA): I absolutely love the price on Manaea over at Fanduel tonight. He’s priced so low that he doesn’t even need to have a great game to hit value. This is a kid that is trending upwards after a strong finish to the 2016 season. Over his last then starts he had a 2.79 ERA and 1.03 WHIP on an average of nearly 6 innings per start. I’m not sold on the Angels offense this season and Oakland is a great pitcher’s ballpark. Manaea was significantly better at home than on the road last year and that trend should continue tonight. He’s my go-to pitcher on FD and I really don’t mind using him for some salary relief on the DK or Fantasy Draft.
Clayton Richard (San Diego Padres @ LAD): The Dodgers are a lefty-heavy squad that just popped off for 14 runs yesterday. It is at least within the realm of possibility that they get shut down today by Richard. Chavez Ravine is not the most hitter-friendly park and it wouldn’t take much more than a 5IP/5K game for Richard to be worth your time. Anything more than that is just gravy. In his final 9 appearances in 2016, Richard averaged over 5 innings per start and gave up only 4 HR. His upside is pretty low but you can go totally bananas with your hitting if you use Richard as your SP2 on DK or Fantasy Draft.
Tampa Bay Rays vs CC Sabathia (NYY/LHP): I wavered on whether to use Tampa Bay today seeing as they no longer have Logan Forsythe to anchor this stack but I just can’t get past how awesome Evan Longoria is against CC Sabathia (.403 BA, 7 HR in 72 AB). Add in lefty mashers Steven Souza Jr and Derek Norris and you have the makings of a pretty solid HuLo stack. If I wanted to go all the way with four batters I’d probably look at Tim Beckham but I’m more likely to just stick with these three guys and use the savings to get big bats like Anthony Rizzo and Ryan Braun into my lineup (as you can see in my DK sample lineup).
San Diego Padres @ Kenta Maeda (LAD/RHP): I have a sick infatuation with all the young bats on San Diego (they are my baseball version of the Buffalo Sabres). Hunter Renfroe, Ryan Schimpf, Wil Myers, and Austin Hedges all have a ton of upside and won’t be owned by anyone tonight. Schimpf is especially impressive after he hit that bomb off of Clayton Kershaw yesterday. It’s not often that a lefty goes yard against him and as we saw last year, Schimpf is a plucky type of player. It takes some stones to use San Diego right now but they’re so young that they don’t even know that they’re not supposed to be good. Maeda can be dominating at times but I just don’t buy him as a guy to be afraid of right now, especially when you’re looking to go HuLo. All things considered I’d rather use Tampa to offset my big players but if I’m playing a Late/Turbo slate then SD is going to be a team I’m targeting to differentiate my lineup a little bit.
St Louis Cardinals vs Jake Arrieta (CHC/RHP): Is it possible that the Jake Arrieta we saw two years ago isn’t the Jake Arrieta we see now? He was a little rough around the edges in 2016, especially towards the end of the season where he gave up 3+ ER in four of his last six starts. He was really good against STL last year but the Cards have a few bats that can get to Arrieta. Randal Grichuk, Matt Adams, and Aledmys Diaz all have had success against Arrieta in limited exposure (.350 BA in 40 AB combined). I’m probably also going to include Matt Carpenter in my stack because he’s Matt Carpenter, Professional Hitter. If Adams is in the lineup for STL and I use him, then I’m going to avoid guys like Jhonny Peralta and Jedd Gyorko because I want a little more consistency out of my bats and not just four guys who can go double dong or golden sombrero.
Other names to consider:
Jose Altuve/Carlos Beltran (HOU): .449 BA, 2 HR, 10 RBI in 49 combined AB against Iwakuma
Hunter Pence (SF): 4 HR in 25 AB vs Patrick Corbin
Milwaukee Brewers: Historically good vs LHP but this is a different team. I want to see it once before I go all in but I’m in on Ryan Braun for sure tonight.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.