The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – August 12, 2017
August 12, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for August 12, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
***These plays are NOT ranked in order of preference***
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Aaron Nola (PHI/RHP) vs New York Mets: $10.4k DK/$9.5k FD||Colorado Rockies @ Justin Nicolino (MIA/LHP)||Fanduel: Aaron Nola ($9500), Jonathan Lucroy ($2300), Mark Reynolds ($2600), DJ LeMahieu ($2900), Nolan Arenado ($4100), Tim Beckham ($3400), Trey Mancini ($3200), Adam Jones ($3100), George Springer ($3700)|
|Dylan Bundy (BAL/RHP) @ Oakland Athletics: $8.4k DK/$8.1k FD||Kansas City Royals @ James Shields (CWS/RHP)||Draft Kings: Hyun-Jin Ryu ($9700), Aaron Nola ($10400), Drew Butera ($2300), Eric Hosmer ($4200), Whit Merrifield ($4200), Mike Moustakas ($4400), Tim Beckham ($3300), Brandon Moss ($3700), Adam Jones ($3700), Trey Mancini ($3800)|
|Jeff Hoffman (COL/RHP) @ Miami Marlins: $6.6k DK/$7.1k FD||Baltimore Orioles @ Sean Manaea (OAK/LHP)||Fantasy Draft: Jeff Hoffman ($13200), Dylan Bundy ($16400), Cody Bellinger ($10400), Corey Seager ($8800), Jose Altuve ($11200), George Springer ($10200), Josh Reddick ($8800), Adam Jones ($7200), Yuli Gurriel ($9300), Drew Butera ($4400)|
|Chalk Pitchers: Carlos Martinez, Mike Fiers, Hyun-Jin Ryu||Chalk Stacks: Milwaukee Brewers, Houston Astros, Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers|
Do you want to know more about my new pitching stat, SPOT? Check it out here.
Aaron Nola (PHI/RHP): Finally, Aaron Nola is getting the respect he deserves on FD and DK. He’s among the highest priced pitchers of the day and he definitely deserves to be. He’s been pitching like a true ace over the last couple of months and if anyone can stop the Mets post-Jay Bruce onslaught it’s him. Over his last ten starts he’s posted a 2.27 ERA with a 10.2 K/9. He’s also been outstanding at home. As it pertains to the price increase, I’m expecting that to keep the ownership on Nola to a reasonable level. He may not be as low owned as I normally like from a HuLo pitcher but if he’s under 20%, and he could be with CMart and Ryu eating the majority of the ownership, then that’s a value to me in this matchup. You’re going to have to dig for bats a little bit if you roster him but as you’ll see, we can find those bats today.
Dylan Bundy (BAL/RHP): Like Nola, I think that Bundy’s ownership will ultimately be higher than I normally am comfortable with for a HuLo play but the options on this slate are extremely limited and I’d rather find my ownership value in bats. Bundy is back to his early season form with three outstanding starts over his last four games. In those three starts he averaged a line of 7IP/1ER/6K. Against the A’s, that’s a more than reasonable baseline with which to work. Look at what Ubaldo Jimenez did yesterday; 11K in just over 5 innings. I’m not saying that Bundy will get you double digit strikeouts (although he did do that in his last game) but the potential is definitely there for him to give you a solid return on your investment.
Jeff Hoffman (COL/RHP): Hoffman was incredible to start the year and then he kind of fell off a cliff for a while. It looks like he’s starting to turn things around with 13IP/13K/3ER over his last two games, both of which were at Coors. No, neither of the offense he faced were as dangerous as the Marlins but it’s not like Miami is the Astros or Dodgers either. If this game was at home, or if Hoffman was priced 20% higher, I wouldn’t touch him. At his value pricing and this game being in pitcher-friendly Marlins Park, I am more than willing to take a shot with him. I love him as an SP2 on DK to help you get some bats, but I really wouldn’t mind using him as your only pitcher on FD either. He’s got the potential to be a guy that can get you at least a K per inning and if he’s pitching well he can definitely get you to 6+ innings of work. That’s a great return and not one that is unreasonable to expect.
Colorado Rockies: I was overjoyed when I realized that I got to write about Colorado today; I don’t get to do that very often when I’m talking about potentially low-owned offenses. With this game being out of the thin air of Colorado, I can see people preferring a team like Houston or the Dodgers rather than the Rockies today. I would normally follow that lead but Justin Nicolino isn’t a great pitcher (5.31 ERA and a 2.2 HR/9), and the Rockies thrive against lefties. Jonathan Lucroy, Mark Reynolds, DJ LeMahieu, and Nolan Arenado are my Rockies of choice, although I’ll find a way to sneak Pat Valaika in there if he’s starting today. That’s a nice cheap bat to offset the high price you’re going to pay for Arenado.
Kansas City Royals: This is the stack I’m most worried about as it pertains to ownership. If people want to get frisky and do a Nola, Ryu, and/or CMart stack (on DK), then this is the team that they are going to turn to. If people are going to save on pitcher for bigger bats then this is a team that is going to go underowned. My thought with putting them on this list is that they are going to be big in cash games, as people tend to favor pitching there, but they will be less popular in a GPP. I’m a GPP guy so let’s talk about the Royals. More accurately, let’s talk about James Shields. He bad. He very bad. Over his last ten starts he’s got a 6.92 ERA and has given up 15 HR in 52 innings of work (2.6 HR/9). He’s already faced KC once this year and he gave up 6 ER in 4.1 innings. Like I said, he bad. This is the spot where the Royals are going to get out of their funk. You can go in a plethora of directions with this lineup but my preferred plays are Whit Merrifield, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Melky Cabrera. If you’re going to run out a fifth player then I’d add in Lorenzo Cain. Just as a little food for thought, if you wanted to go super cheap then I’d look at Drew Butera and Brandon Moss as well.
Baltimore Orioles: Sean Manaea is starting to really struggle right now. Over his last ten games he has a 4.66 ERA with 9 HR allowed. Over his last four games that ERA has ballooned to 6.63 and he’s given up 6 HR. The Baltimore Orioles have the potential to hit a lot of HR. Their lineup is littered with right-handed bats that can take advantage of Manaea. My preferred stack is Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones, Tim Beckham, and Manny Machado but as you saw in my sample lineups, that isn’t always the way we can go with this. Depending on how the rest of your lineup shakes out, you may have to look at Caleb Joseph, Trey Mancini, and Mark Trumbo and there’s really nothing wrong with that at all. There’s an argument to be made the Baltimore could end up as the highest scoring team on the day and I definitely want in on that action.
Other names to consider:
Jhoulys Chacin (SD/RHP): This would be a really gutsy play but the Padres have been rather successful in Chacin’s last handful of starts. Using him would also present you with a double whammy option since the Dodgers are going to be one of the most widely owned stacks today. Chacin has been hit hard by LA this year but he’s also struck out a batter per inning against them so the potential is there for a decent start. It would take massive stones to make this move but if he does pitch well then you are set up for a big night.
Pablo Sandoval (SF/3B): I mean, why not, right? Sandoval is getting the AB and he’s got a decent history against Edwin Jackson (.500 BA, 3 XBH, 16 AB). It’s not an ideal play but it’s not the worst thing you can do either if you need to save some cap space.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.