The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – August 29, 2017
August 28, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for August 29, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
***Just wanted to throw it out there that I’m going to try to change the format up a little bit for the Longball for the time being. In theory, it will combine my favorite parts of the two formats I’ve used this year: a HuLo chart and then musings on how I construct my sample lineups. The lineups are still not optimal lineups, so don’t mistake them for that, but I think it’s important that you get a closer look into how we can use these HuLo plays to construct the lineups. So instead of spouting off stats that you can easily look up (and don’t worry, I won’t totally avoid stats) I’ll spend my time talking about how to best attack the slate using the HuLo picks. Any feedback is more than welcome.***
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Alex Cobb (TB/RHP) @ Kansas City Royals: $8.6k DK/$7.3k FD||Arizona Diamondbacks vs Rich Hill (LAD/LHP)||Fanduel: Alex Cobb ($7300), Chris Iannetta ($2700), Paul Goldschmidt ($4400), Rougned Odor ($2900), Adrian Beltre ($4300), Amed Rosario ($2600), JD Martinez ($4100), AJ Pollock ($3400), Nomar Mazara ($3300)|
|Zack Godley (ARI/RHP) vs Los Angeles Dodgers: $7.7k DK/$8.6k FD||Oakland Athletics @ Troy Scribner (LAA/RHP)||Draft Kings : Jake Arrieta ($11100), Luke Weaver ($7600), Christian Vazquez ($3600), Matt Olson ($3500), Robinson Cano ($4100), Matt Chapman ($2600), Marcus Semien ($4300), Khris Davis ($4500), Matt Joyce ($4100), Nelson Cruz ($4600)|
|Sal Romano (CIN/ RHP) vs New York Mets: $7.2k DK/$6.3k FD||Seattle Mariners @ Dylan Bundy (BAL/RHP)||Fantasy Draft: Matt Moore ($15600), Luke Weaver ($15200), Jose Altuve ($9900), Alex Bregman ($9200), Anthony Rizzo ($10200), George Springer ($9200), Jake Marisnick ($8000), Kyle Schwarber ($8000), Chris Davis ($8000), Tommy La Stella ($6600)|
|Luke Weaver (STL/RHP) @ Milwaukee Brewers: $7.6k DK/$8.4k FD||Texas Rangers @ Mike Fiers (HOU/RHP)|
|Chalk Pitchers: Chris Sale, Jake Arrieta, Rich Hill, Ervin Santana, Matt Moore||Chalk Stacks: Colorado Rockies, Detroit Tigers, Miami Marlins, Minnesota Twins, Houston Astros, Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Indians|
Something about the pricing on Fanduel today told me to take a chance with both my pitcher and one of my stacks. Usually I like to make sure that if my pitcher is a little risky to go ahead and take a couple of safe stacks or vice versa but not today. Alex Cobb isn’t so much a risk as he is a guy that doesn’t have a ton of upside. On the other hand, the Royals haven’t scored a run since (insert outdated reference). They are a complete mess, punctuated by getting shut down by Austin Pruitt on Monday. Even though he’s a guy that lacks upside he still managed to go 6IP/6K/0ER for a monster 46 FD point score. I don’t ever predict that a pitcher will give up zero runs but 6IP/6K/2ER with a win is well within reach for Cobb and I’m perfectly ok with that given his $7.3k price tag. It was that price that made me take notice of him in the first place (as opposed to his $8.6k price in DK, which is way too high). If he hits my projections then he’s looking at 40 FD points, which is well over 5x return on your price. Using Cobb allowed me to spend up a bit for a super HuLo Diamondbacks stack. They should be very low owned with Rich Hill coming off 9 hitless innings. This is a home game for ARI and they hit LHP pretty well. The risk here, of course, is that Hill continues to dominate. I’m happy to take that chance here with a “if you’re not first you’re last” kind of mentality. I backed up Arizona with a solid Texas min-stack against Mike Fiers. He was good for a stretch but he’s struggled with the home run ball all year (1.92 HR/9) and Texas has absolutely dominated him (11 runs on 6 HR in 10 innings over two starts). Amed Rosario makes the squad because he’s got the most upside at his price point with his ability to hit HR and steal a base.
It’s been a minute but I’m back to stacking those wild and wacky Baby A’s. Things didn’t work out so well last night with them but tonight they get whatever a Troy Scribner is. I don’t know much about Scribner outside of his 4.00 ERA and 5 HR allowed in only 18 innings pitched (2.5 HR/9). I know that the sample size is way small with him but a HR prone guy is a HR prone guy. Oakland, for their part, can smash the ball in the right matchup. Young guns Matt Olson and Matt Chapman are hot right now, while old reliable veterans like Marcus Semien, Matt Joyce, and Khris Davis are doing what they always do (multi-HR productivity sandwiched between massive strikeout numbers). Nobody is going to be on Oakland today and I think they could be a sneaky top five offense today (potentially even outscoring a Coors lineup). Another thing I like about Oakland is that they are not so expensive that I can’t get some of my favorite pitchers in my lineup today. In theory I could have used Chris Sale as my SP1 but that would mean coming off Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz, something I’m not sure I want to do. Even with the Sale fade, I’m happy using Jake Arrieta as my SP1. He’s looked like an ace over his last ten starts with a 1.89 ERA and nearly a K per inning. He’s also only given up 5 HR in that time span (0.7 HR/9). Pittsburgh has hit him a little bit this year (4.50 ERA in 3 starts) but Arrieta hasn’t faced them in over a month and he’s totally transformed since then. I’m all about using him as my top SP today. I’m pairing him with Luke Weaver, who has totally looked like a potential ace for the Cardinals since his call up. He’s only made three starts in that time but he’s got a 2.95 ERA with an 11.3 K/9 in those starts. The Brewers, his opponent today, was one of those starts. He was awesome with a line of 6.1IP/8K/2ER for 26.1 DK points. Even at his elevated price tag that’s good enough for nearly a 3.5x return on his $7.6k salary. This is definitely that kind of lineup that can hit in a GPP with a five player HuLo stack, two pitchers with a high ceiling/high floor, and pieces that fit around those elements that won’t hurt your team (you can’t go wrong with Cano and Cruz). Oakland could blow up in your face, but if they don’t you are set up to do very nicely.
I usually use my Fantasy Draft lineup to get a little wonky but I played it very straight today. I was able to find two mid-level pitchers that I loved (Moore and Weaver; Moore being very chalky) to enable me to load up with my bats. I think that the Astros and Cubs are two of the better teams to stack today outside of Coors and I was able to hit most of the big bats on both teams. Being able to use Tommy LaStella at $6.6k was an awesome way to allow me to afford Rizzo, Springer, and Altuve. Because the site requires you to use players from at least three teams, I threw Chris Davis in there facing a weak RHP. He’s homered in three of his last five games and I can see him doing it again today. Either way, he’s not terribly pricey and brings legit double dong upside. If I have to take a player from a third team, he’s not a terrible guy to do that with.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.