The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – August 30, 2017
August 29, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for August 30, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
***Just wanted to throw it out there that I’m going to try to change the format up a little bit for the Longball for the time being. In theory, it will combine my favorite parts of the two formats I’ve used this year: a HuLo chart and then musings on how I construct my sample lineups. The lineups are still not optimal lineups, so don’t mistake them for that, but I think it’s important that you get a closer look into how we can use these HuLo plays to construct the lineups. So instead of spouting off stats that you can easily look up (and don’t worry, I won’t totally avoid stats) I’ll spend my time talking about how to best attack the slate using the HuLo picks. Any feedback is more than welcome.***
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Dallas Keuchel (HOU/LHP) vs Texas Rangers: $11.4k DK/$9.1k FD||San Diego Padres vs Ty Blach (SF/RHP)||Fanduel: Dallas Keuchel ($9100), Chris Gimenez ($2400), Wil Myers ($3100), Brian Dozier ($4200), Jorge Polanco ($3600), Zack Cozart ($3400), Manuel Margot ($3000), Jabari Blash ($2400), Byron Buxton ($3800)|
|Robbie Ray (ARI/LHP) vs Los Angeles Dodgers: $10.7k DK/$9.4k FD||San Francisco Giants @ Travis Wood (SD/LHP)||Draft Kings : Kendall Graveman ($7700), Robbie Ray ($10700), Chris Gimenez ($3000), Anthony Rizzo ($5400), Ian Happ ($4500), Eugenio Suarez ($4400), Yangervis Solarte ($3600), Kyle Schwarber ($4000), Jason Heyward ($3000), Scott Schebler ($3700)|
|Jason Vargas (KC/LHP) vs Tampa Bay Rays: $6.9k DK/$6.4k FD||Chicago Cubs vs Ivan Nova (PIT/RHP)||Fantasy Draft: Jason Vargas ($13600), Kendall Graveman ($15200), Joey Votto ($10800), Anthony Rizzo ($10500), Brian Dozier ($9900), Byron Buxton ($10800), Adam Duvall ($8400), Matt Olson ($6600), Amed Rosario ($6800), Scott Schebler ($7200)|
|Kendall Graveman (OAK/RHP) @ Los Angeles Angels: $7.7k DK/$7.3k FD||Oakland Athletics @ Parker Bridwell (LAA/RHP)|
|Chalk Pitchers: Jose Quintana, Jake Odorizzi, Jose Berrios, Rick Porcello||Chalk Stacks: Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Mets, Cincinnati Reds, Minnesota Twins|
I think that people are going to be down on Dallas Keuchel (and Robbie Ray, more on that in the DK section) today with the Rangers coming off a 12 run game and Jose Quintana and Jose Berrios having great matchups. Don’t me wrong, I love Quintana and Berrios (Berrios especially) but Keuchel is the best pitcher on this slate and his matchup isn’t nearly as bad as you’d think. The Rangers struggle mightily against LHP and Keuchel is no exception. He’s faced Texas twice this year and has struck out 14 batters while only giving up 1 ER in 12.2 innings pitched. Both of those games resulted in a win and QS bonus. I don’t see why we aren’t going to get right back to that today. After struggling a lot in his return from the DL, Keuchel is back to being his dominant self over his last three starts (1.31 ERA with a modest 14 K over 20.2 innings pitched). I don’t see why we can’t replicate those numbers against today against Texas. To get Keuchel as anything other than the most expensive pitcher with the highest ownership is a huge bonus in my mind; $9.1k feels like stealing. What I like best about this is that I can still afford one of my top stacks of the day, the Minnesota Twins. Minnesota isn’t a particularly well rounded team but they sure hit crappy LHP pretty darn well. They’ve faced Derek Holland four times this year and have tagged him for 16 ER in 20 IP (including 11 BB and 7 HR). I won’t get too cute with this team so I’m looking at Dozier, Buxton (HOTNESS!!), and Polanco as the core of this stack. If I were to get cute anywhere it would be with my catcher, and that’s going to be Chris Gimenez. He gives me a decent amount of upside for a very low price. To finish off my team I had to find a cheap stack and it came down to the Giants or the Padres. Neither one of these teams are ideal but I actually think San Diego has a better offense, so they are the team I’m going to roll with. It’s never comfortable using the Padres but Ty Blach doesn’t do much for me and at least I can load up with right-handed bats. I debated between Jose Pirela or Jabari Blash for my last spot and ultimately decided on Blash because I could then fit in Zack Cozart at SS over Amed Rosario. I really like Rosario’s skill set but I wanted to get Cozart’s home run upside against Rafael Montero.
I strongly considered using Dallas Keuchel here again but the $700 savings helped me get a full five player Cubs stack while allowing me to still use guys I liked at other positions. Let’s not forget that Ray is a high upside player and he’s dominated the Dodgers this year. In three starts he’s struck out 29 batters in only 17.1 innings while allowing 7 ER. I’d like to see him give up fewer runs (although a 3.64 ERA against the best team in 20 years isn’t all that bad) but those strikeouts sure make up for a lot. The last time he faced LA he scored over 30 DK points (32.1 to be exact; 3x on today’s price). To get more than 2.5x value from a guy priced over $10k is really nice. I’m going to assume that a matchup against LA in Chase Field will help to keep his ownership down. I’m pairing him up with Kendall Graveman who, like Dallas Keuchel, has taken a little bit to do it but has finally started to look good after a return from injury. Over his last four starts, Graveman has a 2.84 ERA with a 6.8 K/9. That strikeout number isn’t great, but against the Angels he’s got an 8.1 K/9 in 19 innings over three starts. That’s the Kendall Graveman I expect to see out there today. He’s priced slightly higher than I’d like ($7.2k seems more reasonable), but that comes with the territory when he’s on a productive four game run. Not spending up too much on pitchers allowed me to go after a full five man Cubs stack against Ivan Nova. Although Nova has pitched well against the Cubs this year (3.29 ERA with nearly a K per inning), I just don’t trust him today. He’s about two runs per game worse and gives up significantly more HR on the road (2.87 ERA with a 0.9 HR/9 at home vs 4.75 ERA with a 1.7 HR/9 on the road). I don’t know if you know this, but the Cubs hit a lot of home runs…especially at Wrigley. I like them to put a hurt on Nova early in this one and be one of the highest scoring teams on the slate. The one player I didn’t get from Chicago was Kris Bryant. He was just too expensive to make happen. Instead I went with a Reds mini-stack of Eugenio Suarez and Scott Schebler. They are white hot right now and should get good wood against Rafael Montero. I rounded out my team with Yangervis Solarte against Ty Blach (Blech) and Chris Gimenez (who we already discussed).
I like to do some wonky things with my Fantasy Draft team and today was no different. My goal was to spend down on pitching and load up elsewhere. I think I accomplished that well with Graveman and Vargas (minimal upside but also won’t kill your team; very safe and steady). That allowed me to cherry pick my favorite bats today like Votto, Rizzo, Dozier, Buxton, and Duvall. I did have to spend down a bit with some of my spots to afford these buys but it’s not like Amed Rosario, Scott Schebler, and Matt Olson are slouches. All possess a skill set that can get your points in bunches and all have very favorable matchups. Olson is a guy that’s going to slip through a lot of cracks but he’s hitting over .400 with power over his last ten games. You can’t tell me that a matchup against a stiff like Parker Bridwell (ignore the record, he’s not good) is going to scare me off his value. I expect another good outing from him today. The bats are going to hit here so the success of this team comes down to whether Graveman and Vargas can come out and give you six solid innings of work each. I say that they do.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.