The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – July 15, 2017
July 14, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for July 15, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
***These plays are NOT ranked in order of preference***
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Mike Foltynewicz (ATL/RHP) vs Arizona Diamondbacks: $6.9k DK/$7.8k FD||Miami Marlins vs Alex Wood (LAD/LHP)||Fanduel: Jhoulys Chacin ($8000), Willson Contreras ($3200), Chris Davis ($3100), Jonathan Schoop ($3100), Kris Bryant ($3700), Johan Camargo ($2900), Nelson Cruz ($4300), Seth Smith ($3000), Mark Trumbo ($3600)|
|Luis Castillo (CIN/RHP) vs Washington Nationals: $6.4k DK/$7.5k FD||San Diego Padres vs Madison Bumgarner (SFG/LHP)||Draft Kings: Corey Kluber ($12200), Danny Duffy ($7800), Willson Contreras ($3700), Tyler Moore ($3000), Ben Zobrist ($3300), Kris Bryant ($5100), Javier Baez ($3600), Giancarlo Stanton ($4100), Marcell Ozuna ($4100), Albert Almora Jr ($3100)|
|Aaron Nola (PHI/RHP) @ Milwaukee Brewers: $8.8k DK/$8.8k FD||Baltimore Orioles vs Jake Arrieta (CHC/RHP)||Fantasy Draft: Luis Castillo ($12600), Mike Foltynweicz ($13600), Kris Bryant ($10000), Manny Machado ($8800), Chris Davis ($7800), Jose Ramirez ($10200), Michael Brantley ($8400), Mike Trout ($10400), Edwin Encarnacion ($9600), Francisco Lindor ($8400)|
|Jhoulys Chacin (SD/RHP) vs San Francisco Giants: $7.6k DK/$8.0k FD|
|Danny Duffy (KC/LHP) vs Texas Rangers: $7.8k DK/$8.5k FD|
|Chalk Pitchers: Alex Wood, Jimmy Nelson, Max Scherzer, Madison Bumgarner, Corey Kluber, Cole Hamels||Chalk Stacks: Seattle Mariners, Washington Nationals, Cleveland Indians, Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Tampa Bay Rays, Arizona Diamondbacks|
Do you want to know more about my new pitching stat, SPOT? Check it out here.
Mike Foltynewicz (ATL/RHP): One month ago (June 12), I wrote about how Foltynewicz was slowly becoming the ace of the Braves staff. He then went out and give up 8 ER in 3.1 innings pitched while striking out nobody. Since that start, Folty has started four games and he’s got a near no-hitter to go along with a 2.16 ERA and 9.4 K/9. I’m starting to think that the one bad start was just that, one bad start. Today he’s got a tough home matchup against the Diamondbacks but he’s the favorite in this game and Arizona is not the same offense when they’re away from home and facing a righty. I wouldn’t expect another near no-hitter but a game where we see Folty go 6IP/6K is not out of the question at all. That’s a nice return at his price point.
Luis Castillo (CIN/RHP): The pricing on Castillo reminds me Jon Gray yesterday. I loved Gray, and I was wrong. I’m going to throw the caveat out here that Castillo is far from a safe play but he has the same kind of upside (and downside) that Gray had. If I believe in Gray, and if I trust the process (which I do), then I have to talk about Castillo today. The kid has a tremendous strikeout upside (11.7 K/9) and he’s already faced the Nationals once (5IP/5K/2ER). That was his worst start of the season, but look at that line. That’s not a bad “worst start of the season”. At $6.4k on DK he makes the perfect cheap SP2 with upside to use with a guy like Corey Kluber or Max Scherzer (yes, I know he’s pitching against Scherzer but I’m not rostering Castillo for the win). Just understand that there’s a great deal of risk when trusting a kid making only his fifth start of the year against one of the best offenses in the game.
Aaron Nola (PHI/RHP): It is always risky to use a RHP against the Brewers in Milwaukee. Last night’s game against Nick Pivetta is a perfect snapshot of both the upside of using a guy like Nola (MIL struck out in their first four at bats) and the downside of pitching against the Brewers (they scored 8 runs after those four strikeouts). Nola is a better pitcher than Pivetta and he’s been hot lately (1.53 ERA with a 10.4 K/9 over his last four starts). Milwaukee strikes out nearly 28% of the time against RHP and Nola is a strikeout pitcher. I expect a low ownership due to the price/matchup combo for Nola but I’m all about the upside. I might not use him in a primary lineup but he’s definitely getting consideration if I’m making more than one team.
Jhoulys Chacin (SD/RHP): Few pitchers have been as impressive at home as Chacin this year. He’s got a 1.68 ERA, .180 BAA, and is nearly a K per inning guy in 9 home starts. He also has only given up 5 HR at home against 9 HR on the road despite pitching 16 more innings at home. With his low HR and fly ball total (3:1 ground ball to fly ball in his last four starts) he’s got a really small SPOT Factor. San Francisco is far from a scary offense and it’s likely that if people side with any pitcher in this game it’s going to be the returning Madison Bumgarner. I like Chacin to not only look good here but for SD to pull out a win for him. This game has the lowest total on the board so if SD can get that win, then Chacin would be one of the better values on this slate.
Danny Duffy (KC/LHP): As of this writing there’s a little bit of confusion as to whether Duffy or Jason Vargas starts this game but if it ends up being Duffy (and I think it will be). In his two starts since returning to the rotation, Duffy has been kind of up and down with 7 ER in 12.2 innings, but he also had 13 K’s in those 12.2 innings (9 K’s in his last start). If Duffy can find his form then he’s lined up for a great start today. The Texas Rangers, despite their reputation as a strong offense, really struggle against LHP. For the season they have a .227 BA with a 30.3% K-rate. They’ve got a little bit of pop but if I’m buying Duffy here it’s for the strikeout upside at a reasonable price.
Miami Marlins: The Alex Wood thing has to end at some point, right? I know that’s a flimsy argument for using a stack, but Wood is only pitching about 90 pitches per game and in his last three starts he’s walked 7 total batters (3.3 BB/9). No, none of those numbers by themselves are cause for alarm but the Miami Marlins are a big swinging team that have hit LHP well all season. Their .277 BA vs LHP is fifth best in baseball, and they are also third in the league with 17 SB against LHP. I’m a big fan of using a stack that includes Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, JT Realmuto, and Marcell Ozuna. With a lefty on the mound it’s possible that Tyler Moore gets a start at 1B, and if that’s the case then I love him as a punt play. He’s got 6 HR in only 84 AB this year, so the upside is there for sure.
San Diego Padres: I love picking on guys making their first start back from injury. That’s exactly what we have here with Bumgarner. The Padres are far from a good offense but they’ve got a few young, right-handed bats that are going to be at about 1% owned. MadBum is going to be one of the chalkier plays on the slate so you’ve got yourself a huge double whammy opportunity here if the San Diego can get anything at all done with their bats. I wouldn’t use them in my main lineup but on a secondary lineup, or on a late slate, I would take a shot here and there to try to shoot up a GPP. I’m looking primarily at Wil Myers and Austin Hedges but if I wanted to go with a full stack I’d take a shot on maybe a Manuel Margot or even Jose Pirela or Jabari Blash (who had a nice game last night). If Erick Aybar is hitting at the top of the lineup, he’s a guy I’d use as a one off punt play at SS.
Baltimore Orioles: The Cubs came out swinging on Friday but when all was said and done, the Orioles got theirs as well. Today they are facing their old friend and former Oriole, Jake Arrieta. For the season Arrieta is sporting a 4.35 ERA and he just hasn’t looked like the beast we saw two years ago. The Orioles definitely have the bats to take advantage of a guy who is pitching as shakily as Arrieta. Chris Davis is back in the fold and he’s a must start if you’re stacking Baltimore. I also think you need to have Seth Smith if he’s batting leadoff in this game as well. The other two guys in my stack are lineup dependent but I’d love to get Jonathan Schoop and Manny Machado as those final two. Schoop has played great all season, while Machado has been a victim of very bad luck all season. He’s showing signs of turning it around (.302 BA with some pop over his last ten games) and I want to be on that bandwagon well before other people catch on.
Other names to consider:
Felix Hernandez (SEA/RHP): He might not be the King Felix of old, but Hernandez has looked pretty good in his four starts since coming off the DL. In that time he’s got a 4.13 ERA and 9.0 K/9. Neither of those numbers are going to blow you out of the water but his price is pretty reasonable and he faces a White Sox team that struggles against RHP; their .714 OPS is in the bottom quarter of the league. In his last start Hernandez went 6IP/8K/0ER so he definitely has something to build off of. With a lot of big names on the slate, it’s unlikely that he will have a high ownership.
Mike Trout (LAA/OF): This is simply here because Mike Trout is back and maybe not everyone knows this yet. If that’s the case, then his ownership might be a bit down. He has hit Alex Cobb well in his career (.556 BA with 2 HR in 9 AB) so he’s got a lot going for him above just being back in the lineup.
Josh Harrison (PIT/2B): In his career, Harrison has a .385 BA with 5 XBH in 26 AB against Lance Lynn. 2B is very top heavy today and Harrison provides you with a cheap option with some upside.
Albert Almora (CHC/OF): With the Cubbies playing in an American League park, it’s quite likely that Almora will find his way into the lineup. If that’s the case, then he makes a great punt that gives you benefit of exposure to the power Chicago lineup. Perhaps today is the day to “Free Albert Almora.”
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.