The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – July 16, 2017
July 15, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for July 16, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
***These plays are NOT ranked in order of preference***
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Jeff Hoffman (COL/RHP) @ New York Mets: $7.5k DK/$7.5k FD||Miami Marlins vs Rich Hill (LAD/LHP)||Fanduel: Jeff Hoffman ($7500), Mike Zunino ($2500), Matt Adams ($3000), Robinson Cano ($3600), Freddie Freeman ($4000), Johan Camargo ($2800), Ender Inciarte ($3500), Marcell Ozuna ($4000), Nelson Cruz ($4100)|
|Jose Quintana (CHC/LHP) @ Baltimore Orioles: $9.0k DK/$8.5k FD||Atlanta Braves vs Zack Godley (ARI/RHP)||Draft Kings: Jeff Hoffman ($7500), Mike Fiers ($7300), Stephen Vogt ($3300), Matt Adams ($3800), Daniel Murphy ($5000), Freddie Freeman ($5100), Orlando Arcia ($3400), Ender Inciarte ($4100), Bryce Harper ($5400), Nelson Cruz ($4800)|
|Mike Fiers (HOU/RHP) vs Minnesota Twins: $7.3k DK/$8.1k FD||Seattle Mariners @ Derek Holland (CWS/LHP)||Fantasy Draft: Jeff Samardzija ($18400), Jeff Hoffman ($15000), Freddie Freeman ($1000), Matt Adams ($7500), Robinson Cano ($9600), Nelson Cruz ($9300), Ender Inciarte ($8100), Cody Bellinger ($8700), Danny Valencia ($6900), Johan Camargo ($6400)|
|Chalk Pitchers: Marco Estrada, Zack Godley, Carlos Martinez, Yu Darvish, Andrew Moore||Chalk Stacks: New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Washington Nationals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers|
Do you want to know more about my new pitching stat, SPOT? Check it out here.
Jeff Hoffman (COL/RHP): Neither “Road” Jon Gray nor “Road” Tyler Chatwood worked out too well against the Mets this weekend but that’s not going to stop me from going back to the well with “Road” Jeff Hoffman. In his short career, Hoffman has proven to be a stud away from Coors with a 1.67 ERA, .170 BAA, 7.5:1 K to BB ratio, and only 1 HR allowed. The SPOT Factor is very low with Hoffman when he’s not pitching in the thin mountain air. The Mets offense is NOT this good, and despite the power potential of a guy like Jay Bruce, I just can’t ignore the price/upside combination of Hoffman. Let’s also not forget that Hoffman isn’t really a fly ball pitcher, so if you combine that with his strikeout prowess then you can live with the “they can’t hit out of the ballpark what they can’t get in the air” theory. I really like this play today because the Mets won’t continue to hit like this and nobody is going to be on Hoffman after the drubbing that the Rockies have taken over the last two days. I’m definitely going to trust the process on this pick.
Jose Quintana (CHC/LHP): On another slate I might think that Quintana would see a high ownership but there are a lot of factors at play here that should keep people off of him. The first, of course, is that Quintana hasn’t been great this year, nor was he good in his only start against the Orioles (5IP/4K/3BB/4ER). The second factor is that people might want to see how Quintana responds to being traded before they invest in him in DFS. Finally, Quintana is one of the higher priced pitchers on the board and people may prefer to spend their money on a big stack or a pitcher with a little higher upside (Darvish/CMart/Hill). I’m on the other end of the spectrum for this. If you take a closer look at Quintana’s season, you’ll see that he’s actually been quite good in four of his last five starts and his K-rate is starting to improve (10.6 K/9 over those five starts). Baltimore put up some runs on Friday but they stalled out a bit on Saturday. The familiarity that Quintana has with the Orioles should actually help him in this matchup and he’s got the upside to be the highest scoring pitcher on this slate. I like that I get a little bit of a savings with him over Hill or Martinez (both a bit wild in their own rights) so that I can still get a few big bats into my lineup. Pairing Quintana with a Hoffman or Fiers type gives you the roster flexibility that you’re going to want on a juicy slate like this, while maintaining enough upside to put up a big score.
Mike Fiers (HOU/RHP): I view Minnesota very similarly to how I view the Mets; there’s no way they are going to torment a Houston pitcher for a third straight game. Fiers has been on a roll recently and he’s seen his K-rate jump back near to where it was during his Brewers heyday (about a K per inning guy). The Twins have shown that they are a vulnerable team as evidenced by their 10 strikeouts in 5 innings against Charlie Morton on Friday, as well as a 6IP/8K/2ER game they had earlier this year against Fiers. The price/upside combination is definitely right here as you can pair Fiers with a higher end pitcher to allow you to get some big bats, or you can use him with another lower priced pitcher (like Hoffman) to really go bombs away with your lineup.
Miami Marlins: I was on Miami yesterday against Alex Wood, which didn’t work out too well, so you know I’m going to back on them again today in a better matchup against Rich Hill. He’s really upped his game in recent outings with 26 K’s in his last three starts (19 innings). On the other hand, he’s not too far removed from games of 7ER and 5ER, not to mention that he can be a little wild (4.3 BB/9) and his fly ball rate is less than ideal (18:17 ground ball to fly ball ratio in his last three games). If he’s going to put people on base and get the ball in the air, then the Marlins are the type of team that can make him pay. If I’m stacking Miami, I’m obviously looking first and foremost at Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna. They have the pop to put a big hurt on Hill in a hurry. I’ll probably surround them with Christian Yelich and Martin Prado if Don Mattingly makes his lineup as he did yesterday. I’d love to see them shake things up and get JT Realmuto in the 2-hole and maybe give Tyler Moore a shot at 1B. An Ozuna, Stanton, Realmuto, and Moore stack would be totally ideal, but I’m willing to work with what the Marlins give me.
Atlanta Braves: The Vegas line on this game is the sole purpose that I’m looking at Atlanta today. Everything about this game screams a big Arizona win; Godley is on the mound for them and he’s been great (low ERA, low FIP, about a K per inning, only 4 HR allowed all season while pitching more than half his games in Arizona/Coors), while LHP Jaime Garcia is on the mound for Atlanta and the D’backs crush lefties. So why is Arizona only a -105 favorite in this game, a game with a 9.0 O/U? Vegas knows what’s up and they are telling me that ATL is not only live in this game, but they are probably going to put up a few runs in the process. I’m going to be all over a low-owned ATL stack for this slate. I’d love to have all my guys together in the lineup but I really want to focus on Freddie Freeman, Matt Adams, Johan Camargo, and Ender Inciarte. Sadly, we can’t make that happen on DK because both Freeman and Camargo are 3B and there’s no way I’m sitting Freddie in this one. For my DK team I’ll probably just sub in Matt Kemp or Nick Markakis; whoever is in the better spot in the batting order.
Seattle Mariners: The Derek Holland dream season is dead, buried, and never coming back. Over his last ten starts he’s got a 7.06 ERA, .335 BAA, and has allowed 13 HR in 51 IP (2.3 HR/9). The Mariners have some big time lefty killers in their lineup like Nelson Cruz (always play against a lefty), Mike Zunino, and Danny Valencia. If I’m going with a full stack of Mariners, they are locks for me. The other guy I want in this stack is Robinson Cano. He has always hit lefties well, and he takes that to a whole new level with Holland (.333 BA with 6 XBH in 48 AB). I love the idea of a little lefty on lefty violence with Cano anchoring my 2B spot at a very reasonable price.
Other names to consider:
Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY/OF): Ellsbury has been ice cold (sub .200 BA over his last ten games), but he hits Rick Porcello really hard (who doesn’t??). In 34 career AB against the reigning AL Cy Young winner, Ellsbury has a .353 BA with 4 HR. He’s pretty inexpensive and should have a low ownership despite the fact that many people will be on the Yankees today.
Jon Jay (CHC/OF): Jay only has 8 AB in his career against Ubaldo Jimenez, but he’s managed 3 XBH in those at bats. Joe Maddon knows these kinds of things and you can be sure that Jay is going to have a good spot in this lineup to take advantage of his modest BvP success. He’s very inexpensive and, like Ellsbury, will be low owned despite a projected high ownership for Cubs bats. He could be today’s version of Albert Almora Jr from yesterday.
Luke Voit (STL/1B): Voit wasn’t in the lineup on Saturday but I expect him to get back in the lineup for this slate. He’s been hitting well with a .273 BA and 6 XBH in his last ten games (33 AB). His rock bottom price makes him very attractive if you want to spend up on big, chalky bats like Bryce Harper, Cody Bellinger, and/or Anthony Rizzo.
Scooter Gennett (CIN/2B): Gennett has a .333 BA against Tanner Roark. He also had 9 HR in his last 20 appearances, 4 HR in his last 10 games with a .333 BA. He’s on fire and plays in a homer heavy stadium today. He’s a cheap play with a ton of power upside.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.