The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – July 17, 2017
July 17, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for July 17, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
***These plays are NOT ranked in order of preference***
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Brent Suter (MIL/RHP) @ Pittsburgh Pirates: $6.2k DK/$6.6k FD||Toronto Blue Jays @ Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS/LHP)||Fanduel: German Marquez ($6200), Russell Martin ($2700), Justin Smoak ($3300), Brandon Phillips ($2900), Josh Donaldson ($3600), Xander Bogaerts ($3300), Charlie Blackmon ($4800), Jose Bautista ($3800), George Springer ($4300)|
|Jerad Eickhoff (PHI/RHP) @ Miami Marlins: $6.4k DK/$6.9k FD||Detroit Tigers @ Jason Vargas (KC/LHP)||Draft Kings: Brent Stuer ($6200), Josh Tomlin ($8000), Gary Sanchez ($4600), Miguel Cabrera ($3500), Ian Kinsler ($3200), Nolan Arenado ($5200), Carlos Correa ($5300), JD Martinez ($4100), Justin Upton ($3900), Charlie Blackmon ($5600)|
|Josh Tomlin (CLE/RHP) @ San Francisco Giants: $8.0k DK/$7.6k FD||New York Mets vs Adam Wainwright (STL/RHP)||Fantasy Draft: Josh Tomlin ($15600), Jake Odorizzi ($14700), Nolan Arenado ($10000), TJ Rivera ($7200), Jose Reyes ($6600), George Springer ($10800), Charlie Blackmon ($10800), Jay Bruce ($8700), JD Martinez ($8000), Justin Upton ($7600)|
|German Marquez (COL/RHP) vs San Diego Padres: $7.6k DK/$6.2k FD|
|Chalk Pitchers: Jon Lester, Lance McCullers, Jake Odorizzi, Jason Vargas||Chalk Stacks: Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, New York Yankees, Colorado Rockies, San Diego Padres, Cleveland Indians, Tampa Bay Rays|
Do you want to know more about my new pitching stat, SPOT? Check it out here.
Brent Suter (MIL/RHP): Suter has started four games this year but we are going to ignore the first two since it was clear that he wasn’t stretched out for those games (under 8 total innings combined). Let’s instead take a look at what he’s done in his last two starts: 12.1IP/13K/2BB/2ER with a reasonable 14:11 ground ball to fly ball ratio (and no HR allowed). What’s most impressive is that those starts were against Baltimore and at the Yankees. It’s not like he put together two good starts against Philly and San Diego; the O’s and Yanks are heavy hitters. Today’s opponent, the Pirates, is far from a scary offense and their ballpark definitely favors pitchers. Pittsburgh has a .246 BA with only 69 HR against RHP all season (a number that is so not nice as it’s third worst in baseball). They don’t strike out a ton (only 21% against RHP) but you don’t need a ton of K’s at Suter’s price. A theme that you’ll see throughout the pitching portion of this article today is that we are going to have to manage expectations given the lack of surefire quality at the position. With Chad Kuhl on the mound for PIT a win is definitely in reach for Suter, which would be huge at his price point.
Jerad Eickhoff (PHI/RHP): I’m not one to overreact, but the Miami Marlins did not look very good coming out of the All Star break this weekend. I know that the series was against the best team in the NL, and against hot pitching, but boy did they look bad. With rumors swirling about their entire OF on the trading block, maybe they’ve started to throw the towel in on the season. Either way, I really like the upside of a guy like Eickhoff. He’s down a little bit from last year, but his bread and butter is striking guys out. He had 8 K’s his last time out, which tied for his season high. He did that in 5 innings of work. He also only walked 1 batter, which is awesome. Another thing I like about Eickhoff is that he doesn’t give up a ton of fly balls. Miami lives and dies by the HR, so if Eickhoff can keep the ball down he’s got a great chance to have a solid game. Like with Suter, we have to manage expectations here. Here’s another pitcher priced under $7k on both sites, so a game of 5IP/6K/3ER is going to be just fine (and is well within reason).
Josh Tomlin (CLE/RHP): Compared to the other pitchers on this list today, Tomlin is crazy expensive. Compared to reality, Tomlin is still priced well enough to allow you to load up on bats or to pair him with one of the higher end SP1’s. I was really apprehensive to put Tomlin on the list today because he’s been infuriating to own but his last start was pretty good (7IP/6K/0BB/2ER, although it was against SD) and he’s once again facing a National League team. Don’t underestimate the advantage that Tomlin is going to have as he faces a pitcher instead of a DH. Strikeout opportunities rise and RBI opportunities plummet in this situation; both of these are great things for Tomlin. The Giants have the worst OPS and have the least amount of HR against RHP in all of MLB. AT&T Park is a big time pitcher’s park. Cleveland should get Tomlin in a position to win this game. If there ever was a time to feel confident about using him, today is that day.
German Marquez (COL/RHP): I felt so strongly about mentioning Marquez that I added a fourth pitcher to the HuLo list today. Today’s start for Marquez reminds me of the start from Nick Pivetta last week against the Brewers. He has the potential for a high strikeout game (the last time he faced SD he struck out 9 guys in 5 innings) but he also gave up 6 ER in those 5 innings…and this game is at Coors. That all said, Marquez has only given up 5 HR all year at home (in 36.2 innings) and the Padres are not a lefty-heavy, home run hitting team. They also have a .235 BA against RHP, which is worst in the majors. I don’t love the idea of spending $7.6k for him on Draft Kings, but I have little concern with throwing him out there in a secondary Fanduel lineup at $6.2k. Understand that this could totally blow up in your face, but if he can somehow keep the ball on the ground (something he does well) then he could be in line for a surprisingly good outing.
Toronto Blue Jays: I know that Toronto has struggled this year, but if they are going to hit then it’s going to be against left-handed pitching. Eduardo Rodriguez is making his first start off the DL and I love picking on pitchers in that situation. The Green Monster is going to look mighty juicy to the right-handed Blue Jays bats, especially as Rodriguez is a fly ball pitcher. I could see guys like Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin, Justin Smoak, Jose Bautista, and Troy Tulowitzki taking aim at the big wall all evening long. This group doesn’t have a great history against Rodriguez but it’s a short history and I’m willing to take a shot with them as a lower-owned stack. If you want to think even further out of the box, Steve Pearce has a hit in six of his last seven games and is pretty darn cheap today.
Detroit Tigers: With the pitching as uncertain as it is, I could see a lot of people talking themselves into Jason Vargas today. The thought of that makes me sad for those people. Over his last few starts we have begun to see signs that the “real” Jason Vargas emerging; 6 ER his last time out, 5 HR allowed over his last three starts, 4 BB two starts ago. If he puts it all together in this start (on the negative end), then the Tigers are going to put up double digits. As a team they have nearly a .300 BA against Vargas in 145 career AB. What’s even more telling is that their K-rate is a measly 15%. They are going to put the ball in play and those balls in play are going to produce a lot of runs. Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and Alex Avila all have a .300 BA or greater, with some power, against Vargas. The one name I didn’t mention, JD Martinez, is the best hitter of the bunch and I’m not really worried about his .250 BA in only 8 AB against Vargas; he’s a lock in any DET stack I put together. I’m all over this team today.
New York Mets: The Mets sure came out of the All Star break on fire, huh? They rocked the Rockies pitchers, all of whom are usually road warriors. Adam Wainwright has been far from that this year. His road ERA is 8.36 and he’s given up more HR on the road (6 to 4) despite pitching 21.2 less innings than at home. In his one start against New York this year, he was dominant (6.2IP/7K/1ER). I don’t see that happening again today against the hot hitting Mets. I’m looking at guys like Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda, TJ Rivera, and Jose Reyes for my stack. The last two names may surprise you but look at what Rivera and Reyes have done over their last ten games (both batting near .400 with 3 HR each). If we are riding hot streaks, then those are the guys you have to look at.
Other names to consider:
Xander Bogaerts (BOS/SS): The Lords of BvP should be all over this play. In 20 career AB against Marcus Stroman, Bogaerts is hitting .500 with 3 XBH. I know the upside is a little limited with him, but if you’re stuck at SS there’s really nothing wrong with grabbing a guy who can get you two hits and score a couple of runs. You grab Bogaerts for safety, not upside.
Brandon Phillips (ATL/2B): While it’s nice that Dat Dude BP has a .333 BA against Jon Lester in his career, that’s not why I’m grabbing him today. I’m much more interested in the heater that Phillips has been on over his last three games. In that time he’s 7 for 12 (.583 BA) with 6 XBH. I don’t know why he’s suddenly found his stroke but with a good history against today’s pitcher and the platoon advantage, Phillips is a cheap off the radar play with a ton of upside.
George Springer (HOU/OF): Springer has four hits against Ariel Miranda in his career (in 11 AB). All four of those hits have been home runs. A little flukey? Yeah, of course it is but with the way Springer is playing today it’s definitely worth taking notice. As you know I don’t predict home runs but if I did…..
Texas/Baltimore Game Stack: Vegas tells me I should play this game (10.5 O/U and the game should be close) but I just can’t get a good feel for where I want to go with it. This is why the game is listed down here instead of up above. Just know that any time you have Andrew Cashner and Chris Tillman on the hill, a football score is not out of the question.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.