The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – July 5, 2017
July 4, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for July 5, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
***These plays are NOT ranked in order of preference***
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Daniel Norris (DET/LHP) vs San Francisco Giants: $7.0k DK/$6.9k FD||Texas Rangers vs Doug Fister (BOS/RHP)||Fanduel: Jon Gray ($6400), Salvador Perez ($3200), Eric Thames ($3400), Jose Altuve ($3900, Miguel Sano ($3700), Chris Owings ($3100), Nelson Cruz ($4000), AJ Pollock ($3500), Andrew McCutchen ($3700)|
|Jon Gray (COL/RHP) vs Cincinnati Reds: $7.6k DK/$6.4k FD||Minnesota Twins vs Parker Bridwell (LAA/RHP)||Draft Kings: Zack Godley ($8200), Daniel Norris ($7000), Chris Iannetta ($3100), Eric Thames ($4300), Rougned Odor ($3900),Miguel Sano ($4700), Elvis Andrus ($4400), Ryan Braun ($4500), Nelson Cruz ($4400), Charlie Blackmon ($5500)|
|Zack Godley (ARI/RHP) @ Los Angeles Dodgers: $8.2k DK/$8.3k FD||Arizona Diamondbacks @ Alex Wood (LAD/LHP)||Fantasy Draft: Zack Godley ($16000), Gerrit Cole ($16800), Miguel Sano ($9200), Eric Thames ($8400), Rougned Odor ($7800), Nelson Cruz ($8400), Chris Owings ($8000), Max Kepler ($7800), Paul Goldschmidt ($10000), AJ Pollock ($7500)|
|Chalk Pitchers: Jacob DeGrom, Trevor Bauer, Alex Wood, Ervin Santana, Gerrit Cole||Chalk Stacks: Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros, Boston Red Sox, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds. Colorado Rockies|
Do you want to know more about my new pitching stat, SPOT? Check it out here.
Daniel Norris (DET/LHP): I was a little surprised to see Norris set as such a heavy favorite tonight (-150), but I think that surprise is what makes him a strong GPP play. I’m not sure that too many people are going to see him as such a significant favorite here and they might overlook this play altogether. That will help keep the ownership nice and low, which is right where I like it. What’s really odd is it’s not like the Giants are wretched against LHP either; they are a middle of the pack team. Their OPS is in the bottom five of the league, but their batting average and other power numbers are average. On the other side of things, it’s not like Norris has been pitching lights out either. He’s given up 10 ER in 9.2 innings over his last two starts. Sometimes we just have to trust that Vegas knows what they are talking about and that’s where I am with this pick, and I’m going to back that up with the fact that Norris is a K per inning guy so we have somewhat of a nice floor to work with. Add in his price and you’ve got yourself a really nice GPP option with a bit of upside.
Jon Gray (COL/RHP): So yeah, Jon Gray looked pretty darn good in his return from the DL last week, didn’t he? I don’t know if you could have asked for more than a 6IP/2ER/10K game in Arizona. Heck, that’s a good start for anyone, let alone someone coming back from injury. Tonight we see Gray in a very similar position as he’s at Coors Field against a strong Reds offense. I’ll admit, I’m not totally comfortable with this play but at the price you’re paying for him (particularly on FD), he’s got the upside necessary to take that shot. Even if he gives you the exact same game he just had, with 4 ER instead of 2 ER, he’d still be a guy that would pay off his price tag on Fanduel. I love the idea of using him with some big bats. He’s not ideal on DK but at $7.6k, you could definitely pair him with a guy like DeGrom and still have room for a few bats.
Zack Godley (ARI/RHP): I know that Alex Wood has been great this year, but to make him such a heavy favorite over Godley tonight feels really wrong. Godley is a K per inning guy, he doesn’t really walk anyone, nor does he give up a ton of HR (only 4 total allowed on the season). The Dodgers have a good lineup but Godley has impressed against good lineups all season. I don’t see why anything would change tonight. Veags has this game as an 8.0 O/U, which is the lowest total on the slate. Even as an underdog, he’s still not projected to give up a ton of runs. If the D’backs can get to Wood and give Godley a win, then he could be one of the best values on the entire slate given his strikeout upside (10.5 K/9 over his last three starts).
Texas Rangers: Doug Fister is the opposing pitcher. I’m not sure just how much more I need to say to get you want to stack Rangers. They got blasted yesterday but I think that just means they are going to come out even stronger today. Texas is really strong from the left side of the plate and I’m going to be loading up there in this matchup. Give me Rougned Odor (3 HR in list last five games; 5 XBH in 16 AB against Fister), Nomar Mazara, Shin-Soo Choo, and Joey Gallo. I know that using a guy like Gallo is really hit or miss but he’s a legit double dong guy and that’s hard to pass up against a weak pitcher like Fister. I suppose you could use Beltre if you wanted to be safer, but the upside lies with Gallo. If you don’t want to fill up your outfield, I see no reason why you shouldn’t pull Mazara and put in a crazy hot Elvis Andrus instead. He may not be left-handed but that hasn’t stopped him yet this year and I doubt he’s going to slow down tonight.
Minnesota Twins: The Twins are a pretty heavy favorite tonight, and rightfully so against Parker Bridwell. In his last three starts he’s given up 5 HR in 17.2 innings. He’s also only struck out 9 batters and has a 19:34 ground ball to fly ball ratio. It’s never a good thing when a guy can’t strike anyone out and gives up a ton of fly balls against a home run hitting offense. The SPOT Factor is off the charts here. I’m all over Miguel Sano and Max Kepler. They are by far my top two player on the Twins for this matchup. Their lineup is going to dictate where the rest of my loyalty lies but I’m expecting Joe Mauer (.316 BA and 10 XBH over his last ten games) and Eddie Rosario to round out this stack for me.
Arizona Diamondbacks: I get that Alex Wood is pitching like an All Star. I understand that he’s a huge favorite in this game. I also know that he D’backs are one of the best offenses in baseball and what they specialize in is popping off on LHP. If you can tell me that I can load up on D’backs bats at a low ownership, then I’m going to tell you that I’m all for it. Guys like Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Owings, Brandon Drury, and a returning AJ Pollock are all guys I want to target tonight. I’m more than happy to take that shot that this blows up in my face given the upside that these guys bring. Heck, even Chris Iannetta is a guy to think about due to his incredibly low price; he does have 10 RBI over his last ten games so there is upside there if you use him.
Other names to consider:
Nelson Cruz (SEA/OF): Cruz hasn’t homered in forever but tonight may be the night that he bounces back. Over his career he’s hit LHP really well, and that holds even truer for his matchup tonight. In 30 career AB against Jason Vargas, Cruz has hit 4 HR with a .333 BA. I don’t call home runs but if I did, I just might call out Cruz’s name tonight.
Mike Leake (STL/RHP): I don’t love Mike Leake, hence the reason he’s here and not on the HuLo list, but he does one thing really well that puts him at least somewhat on my radar tonight. That one thing is having an elite ground ball rate. The guy almost never gets the ball in the air and that will be a huge hindrance to the Marlins, who specialize in home runs. Vegas feels similarly as they have Leake installed as a decently sized favorite in this matchup.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.