The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – July 9, 2017
July 9, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for July 9, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
***These plays are NOT ranked in order of preference***
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Jimmy Nelson (MIL/RHP) @ New York Yankees: $9.5k DK/$9.3k FD||Milwaukee Brewers @ Masahiro Tanaka (NYY/RHP)||Fanduel: Trevor Cahill ($8100), Matt Wieters ($2400), Jose Abreu ($4400), Paul DeJong ($2700), Todd Frazier ($4200), Orlando Arcia ($2800), Melky Cabrera ($4300), Matt Kemp ($2700), Jay Bruce ($3400)|
|Chris Archer (TB/RHP) vs Boston Red Sox: $10.7k DK/$9.9k FD||Chicago White Sox @ Kyle Freeland (COL/LHP)||Draft Kings: Chris Archer ($10700), Jimmy Nelson ($9500), Tyler Flowers ($3100), Matt Adams ($3700), Paul DeJong ($2700), Freddie Freeman ($4600), Carlos Correa ($5100), Matt Kemp ($3100), Kole Calhoun ($3800), Jay Bruce ($3700)|
|Trevor Cahill (SD/RHP) @ Philadelphia Phillies: $7.7k DK/$8.1k FD||Atlanta Braves @ Joe Ross (WSH/RHP)|
|Chalk Pitchers: Brad Peacock, Jon Lester, Yu Darvish||Chalk Stacks: Houston Astros, New York Yankees, Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles, Colorado Rockies|
Do you want to know more about my new pitching stat, SPOT? Check it out here.
Jimmy Nelson (MIL/RHP): The Yankees sure can hit, especially at home, but Nelson is pitching like an ace this year. Over his last ten starts he’s had 8+ K’s seven times. He’s also got a 2.74 ERA and only 6 HR allowed during that same stretch. A high strikeout total will help offset any earned runs that Nelson would surrender, much in the same way Luis Severino’s high K total saved his day yesterday. I can see Nelson having a very similar stat line to what we saw from Severino on Saturday (7IP/10K/3ER). I don’t expect a high ownership at all for Nelson given his price/matchup combination. I love his HuLo-iness in a GPP today.
Chris Archer (TB/RHP): “Home” Chris Archer hasn’t been as good as advertised yesterday but I really like the prospects for a good start today. I know that the Red Sox aren’t a thrilling matchup but when you look at his history against the current BoSox roster, he’s actually been quite successful. This current Red Sox team has a nearly 30% K-rate against Archer and only 2 HR in 164 career at bats. The trio of Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Hanley Ramirez would seem to have Archer’s number with a combined .338 career BA against him, but that high average comes with only 5 XBH (in 68 AB) and a 39.7% K-rate. I’ll gladly have Archer give up a few singles in return for a potential double digit strikeout game. Much like with Nelson, I expect the price/ownership combination to keep the ownership at a reasonable level for Archer today. As you can see from my DK sample lineup, I love the idea of pairing Nelson and Archer to take a shot at 20+ strikeouts from my duo.
Trevor Cahill (SD/RHP): If you want to spend down a little bit on pitching while still maintaining some upside, then Cahill is a guy you need to take notice of. His return from the DL started off well with 4K/0ER in 4.1 innings against the Indians and I expect him to build strongly off that today in Philadelphia. The Phillies have been handled by the Padres pitching in this series (Richard and Chacin have combined for 12.1IP/2ER) and Cahill is the best of the bunch. I fully expect him to get back to being a 6IP/7K type of pitcher today (he’s only gone under 7 K’s on time all year prior to his return start earlier this week, and in that start he had 6 K’s). With “name” pitchers like Carlos Rodon, JA Happ, and Lance Lynn all similarly priced to Cahill I wouldn’t expect the ownership here to be too out of control.
Milwaukee Brewers: I said it yesterday with Severino and I’ll say it again tonight with Tanaka, I think Vegas has this line all wrong. I don’t see how Tanaka can be a -150 favorite against a strong Milwaukee offense (and against a strong pitcher in Jimmy Nelson). For those that use the Vegas lines as an indicator of whom they should play, they are going to avoid the Brewers. I think this is a mistake, but that also means that we are going to get a decently low ownership number on the Milwaukee bats. I know that Tanaka has been great his last three starts, but prior to that he had given up 5+ ER in five of seven starts. He’s also given up 15 HR over his last ten stats, and the Brewers are a strong home run hitting team. I’m inclined to lean lefty here with Stephen Vogt, Eric Thames, and Travis Shaw but don’t shy away from hot hitting Domingo Santana and Orlando Arcia (a combined average of over .400 in their last ten games).
Chicago White Sox: There is no team in baseball that hits LHP better than the Chicago White Sox (.292 BA is tops in the majors and their .811 OPS is third). I know that this game is at Coors so it’s kind of like cheating but I don’t think people realize what a great play this White Sox squad is. Not only are the Sox good against LHP, but Kyle Freeland is half a run worse at home than he is on the road and he doesn’t really strike anyone out. This should lead to plenty of RBI opportunities for the big boy Sox bats. I’m looking at Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier, Mekly Cabrera, and Avisail Garcia as my top plays but don’t rule out some of the lesser known White Sox like Kevan Smith, Yolmer Sanchez, or Adam Engel.
Atlanta Braves: This is a totally different offense with Freddie Freeman in the lineup than it was when he was out. They actually have a legitimate middle of the order now with Freeman, Adams, Kemp, Flowers, and Markakis. Heck, even Dansby Swanson and Brandon Phillips are in play considering the talent that they are surrounded with. Joe Ross is a pretty decent pitcher but he does walk quite a few batters (6 BB in 13.2 IP over his last two starts) and he does give up a few too many HR for my liking (3 HR over those two starts). For the season, Ross has not done well against Atlanta with a 5.68 ERA, 4 BB, and 2 HR allowed in 12.2 innings over three starts. Let’s not forget that the Nationals bullpen is kind of a mess, so if Ross continues to average less than five innings in his starts against the Braves, then ATL is going to get their shots against this subpar relief squad. I love the prices on the Braves bats and I think they make a great play if you want to spend up at pitcher.
Other names to consider:
Jay Bruce (NYM/OF): Bruce is well priced and he has a great matchup today. In his career he has owned Lance Lynn to the tune of a .424 BA with 6 XBH in 33 AB.
Kole Calhoun (LAA/OF): Calhoun gives you a little bit of a double whammy opportunity today against a chalky Yu Darvish. In 16 career at bats against him, Calhoun has 2 HR and a .375 BA. He should be low owned, so a good day can mean a huge move for you up a GPP leaderboard.
Ubaldo Jimenez (BAL/RHP): It is never a good feeling to click on Ubaldo’s name but he’s shown some signs of life over his last two starts and a matchup in Minnesota isn’t the worst matchup for him today. In those two aforementioned starts he has racked up 15 strikeouts in only 13 innings of work, and he’s been at 6+ K’s in three of his last five outings. You’ll be on pins and needles all game but his price is such that you won’t have to worry about using a high priced SP1 or a few big bats with him in your lineup.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.