The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – June 10, 2017
June 10, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for June 10, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
Do you want to know more about my new pitching stat, SPOT? Check it out here.
Early Slate Musings:
If this was a cash game article, I’d feel really comfortable to tell you to just go with Carlos Martinez and Jeff Samardzija at pitcher and figure it out from there. In a GPP though, I just don’t see that being the way to go since both of these guys could see ownership in the 30+% range. I just don’t think we need to go that route today with some of the value at the bottom end of the salary scale. Let’s also not forget that CMart and Shark are no sure things as both can give up big innings and that’s not what you want when you’re dropping over $10k for a pitcher. I also think that Dan Straily, Jose Berrios, and Sonny Gray are going to be popular pitchers with their friendly matchup/price combinations. I’m fading all of them, and I’m actually going to attack Gray a little bit today (more on that in a bit). For my money, I’d much rather look at guys like Jeff Hoffman and Sean Newcomb for my pitcher rather than spend up. Hoffman has been outstanding all year and as we’ve seen recently, the Cubs are no sure thing to put up a big game against anyone. At his sub-$7k price tag, he’s the perfect guy to use for upside and salary relief. As for Newcomb, when I look at what he did in the minors, it reminds me a lot of Dinelson Lamet; a guy with tremendous strikeout potential but who comes with a great deal of risk due to his high walk rate. Lamet worked out really well his first two starts and I can foresee the same with Newcomb today. Even with Yoenis Cespedes slated to come off the DL for the Mets today, they are very lefty-heavy and Newcomb neutralizes those bats. He’s so cheap that we really only need a 5IP/5K game for him to hit value. Using those two guys gives you a ton of money to play with your bats.
As for those bats; remember when I said I was going to pick on Sonny Gray? He’s been great in three of his last four starts but that one bad start was on the road, just as today’s game is. For the season, Gray has been really bad away from Oakland with an ERA over 7.00. If there’s anything that Tampa Bay can do, it’s hit bombs off of righties so I’m going to definitely take advantage of the double whammy potential that we’ve got here. Outside of the Tampa bats, I think a really interesting under the radar team to look at is the Padres. They don’t have a lot of names to play with but Yangevis Solarte and Hunter Renfroe are both hitting well right now and they’ve got a juicy matchup against Ian Kennedy. They may be a little chalky after yesterday, but the Miami bats are going to be really hard to pass up. Trevor Williams is no stud and the Marlins are yet to feel the sting of losing Justin Bour to the DL (hello, Tyler Moore). I’ll end up filling the rest of my roster out with high upside guys from Houston and Colorado since I’ve definitely got the money to play with and can deal with the ownership because of some of the other HuLo choices that I’ve made. For example, Brian McCann’s BvP is going to put him as a clear chalk play but we can make it work because we’re going to have two pitchers and a few bats that should be under 15% owned.
Fanduel (early): Jeff Hoffman ($6400), Brian McCann ($3400), Logan Morrison ($3300), Dee Gordon ($3200), Nolan Arenado ($4000), Carlos Correa ($4200), Tyler Moore ($2400), Corey Dickerson ($4200), Giancarlo Stanton ($4000)
DraftKings (early): Jeff Hoffman ($6700), Sean Newcomb ($6500), Brian McCann ($3900), Logan Morrison ($4400), Yangervis Solarte ($3300), Nolan Arenado ($5000), Carlos Correa ($5200), Hunter Renfroe ($4100), Charlie Blackmon ($5400), Corey Dickerson ($4700)
Late Slate Musings:
For such a short slate, there is a lot of pitching to go around on this early slate. I think that Chris Sale, Luis Severino, Alex Wood, and Ariel Miranda are going to be chalkier plays. I’m not opposed to using these guys (Wood being the most likely) but for the most part I’m going to look elsewhere and play the ownership game a little bit (and I’m stacking against Miranda if I’m doing anything with him). The guys I’m tending to look at for my pitcher are Zack Godley, Josh Tomlin, and Asher Wojciechowski. None of the three of those guys will instill you with a ton of confidence but all three come with a little bit of upside for their prices. Godley was really good prior to his injury and, while the matchup is rough against a good Brewers lineup, I see no reason that he can’t pick back up where he left off. His main deal is keeping the ball on the ground (40:9 ground ball to fly ball rate with only 1 HR allowed over his last four starts) and that should be something he can replicate quickly. Even with the lack of power that he has, he was still striking out about 6 batters per game, which is definitely reasonable against a Brewers team that has a monster K-rate of 27+% against RHP. As for Tomlin, his thing is control as well. He doesn’t walk anyone; the guy has 4 BB in 63.1 IP this season (11:1 K to BB rate). If he’s keeping guys off base, that’s going to limit the damage done to him when he does make a mistake. The last time he faced Chicago, he made a lot of mistakes (7 ER in 1.2 IP) but he’s been a much better pitcher since then. He’s far from safe (even with that game removed, he has a 4.82 ERA for the season) but at his price, a quality start with 5 K and a shot at a win is really all you need. His control will pay dividends on DK as he won’t have any walks that will add (subtract??) some negatives to you score. As for Wojo (I refuse to spell his name again), he’s so cheap that if he can get to 5IP/4K/3ER, he should be ok, and the Dodgers are far from an elite offense.
At the plate, it would look like Arizona, Cleveland, and the Yankees are your chalk stacks for this slate. With where we are going with pitching, I say load up on the chalk as much as you want. There are no bats that I’m avoiding tonight for ownership issues. If I wanted to be a little sneaky, I’d may throw in a Tiger or two against Chris Sale for some double whammy potential (VMart, Miggy, Kinsler, and Iglesias all have rock solid numbers against him), or I’d look at Seattle at home against Marcus Stroman. My favorite HuLo stack on this slate is the Toronto Blue Jays. Ariel Miranda just came off the best game of his career. That should bring ownership down a little bit on his opponents, but I think that’s a mistake. Toronto crushes lefty pitching and should not be avoided at all based on one good start from Miranda. There’s double whammy potential here, although not as much as there is with DET, so I’m definitely going to have a number of Jays in my lineup tonight. The hardest thing about this slate is going to be deciding between Goldy/Smoak at 1B and Donaldson/Lamb at 3B. When in doubt, avoid the ownership (so I’m going with the Jays bats).
Fanduel (late): Zack Godley ($7700), Russell Martin ($2400), Edwin Encarnacion ($3500), Stalin Castro ($3100), Jake Lamb ($4100), Didi Gregorius ($3100), Jose Bautista ($3700), Gregor Blanco ($3000), Nelson Cruz ($4400)
DraftKings (late): Zack Godley ($7100), Josh Tomlin ($7300), Gary Sanchez ($4900), Justin Smoak ($4800), Starlin Castro ($4600), Josh Donaldson ($4900), Jose Iglesias ($3800), Jose Bautista ($3400), Aaron Judge ($5400), Kevin Pillar ($3800)
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.