The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – June 12, 2017
June 11, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for June 12, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
***These plays are NOT ranked in order of preference***
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Mike Foltynewicz (ATL/RHP) @ Washington Nationals: $6.6k DK/$7.9k FD||San Diego Padres vs Bronson Arroyo (CIN/RHP)||Fanduel: Jacob DeGrom ($9700), Austin Hedges ($2400), Lucas Duda ($2900), Jose Pirela ($2500), Todd Frazier ($3300), Didi Gregorius ($3300), Hunter Renfroe ($3200), Nelson Cruz ($4400), Avisail Garcia ($3100)|
|Jacob DeGrom (NYM/RHP) vs Chicago Cubs: $10.2k DK/$9.7k FD||New York Mets vs John Lackey (CHC/RHP)||Draft Kings: Mike Foltynewicz ($6600), Masahiro Tanaka ($7800), Gary Sanchez ($5000), Matt Holliday ($4700), Starlin Castro ($4500), Todd Frazier ($4400), Didi Gregorius ($4300), Matt Adams ($3500), Mitch Haniger ($3600), Aaron Judge ($5500)|
|Masahiro Tanaka (NYY/RHP) @ Los Angeles Angels: $7.8k DK/$7.9k FD||Chicago White Sox vs Wade Miley (BAL/LHP)||Fantasy Draft: Jacob DeGrom ($19800), Masahiro Tanaka ($15000), Lucas Duda ($8000), Jose Pirela ($4400), Todd Frazier ($8700), Joey Gallo ($7600), Aaron Judge ($10800), Nelson Cruz ($9900), Jose Abreu ($8100), Seth Smith ($7500)|
|Chalk Pitchers: Stephen Strasburg, Yu Darvish, Rick Porcello, Kyle Freeland||Chalk Stacks: Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels|
Do you want to know more about my new pitching stat, SPOT? Check it out here.
Mike Foltynewicz (ATL/RHP): I think Folty might actually be a pretty decent pitcher. Over his last two starts he’s given up exactly ZERO runs while striking out 14 batters in 14 innings pitched. What I really like about those two games is that he’s got a 16:5 ground ball to fly ball ratio. Not surprisingly, he’s given up no HR during those games (obviously, since he gave up no runs). I know that the Nationals are not a good matchup for anyone but Foltynewicz has already faced them once and he only gave up 2 ER in 7 IP. His control was a little off in that game (4 BB against 3 K) but he didn’t give up any HR and was pretty efficient otherwise. I love his low price tag on DK as you can either pair him with DeGrom or go with two low-priced pitchers and get all the Yankees your little heart desires.
Jacob DeGrom (NYM/RHP): It’s time to see what’s more real; DeGrom’s poor pitching or the Cubs inability to hit. The thing that has me leaning towards using DeGrom is that, aside from his last start, he’s still striking out a ton of batters while he gives up all those runs. If he can continue to be an 11+ K/9 kind of guy, that’ll make up a lot for the runs he gives up. He’d stop giving up runs if he could control his walk issues (3.8 BB/9 for the season). One of the things I said the other day in relation to being worried about using Jeff Hoffman against the Cubs was “they can’t hit HR if they don’t put the bat on the ball.” That worked out really well, and I think it’s the same philosophy I’m taking today. High strikeout pitchers are giving the Cubs fits right now and I’m looking at a huge bounce back game from DeGrom tonight.
Masahiro Tanaka (NYY/RHP): My buddy was deciding yesterday if he should use Tanaka in his season long league this week and he asked me about it. Tanaka is facing the Angels and A’s this week and I told him, “if you don’t use him this week, what the hell do you have him on your roster for?” I know the Angels are hitting well right now but if Tanaka can’t figure it out against them and Oakland, he’s pretty much toast. Looking at his price in DFS, I have the same thought. If I can’t use him under $8k against a non-menacing offense, when will I use him? There’s a ton of risk here because of how poorly he’s been pitching but there’s also a ton of upside. Despite his poor results, Tanaka isn’t really walking anyone (2.5 BB/9) and he’s nearly a K per inning guy (7.9 K/9). What’s getting Tanaka is his proclivity towards the long ball (2.3 HR/9) but the Angels aren’t really a power hitting team; their .384 SLG against RHP is the second lowest in baseball. I think Tanaka turns it around and at his price/ownership combination, I’m willing to take a shot on that happening. Pair him with Foltynewicz and you can really load up on chalk bats.
San Diego Padres: Bronson Arroyo. I mean, do we need a better reason than that to stack Padres? The guy already has given up 20 HR on the season (2.8 HR/9), and he’s actually worse on the road than he is at home (3.4 HR/9). I’m aware that Petco Park isn’t a hitter’s paradise but Arroyo is so bad that he could sure make it feel like Coors South. San Diego has enough offense to make a stack interesting. I’m looking at guy with some pop like Hunter Renfroe, Wil Myers, Austin Hedges, and Jose Pirela (I’m choosing his hot bat over the vastly more expensive Yangervis Solarte, though I wouldn’t be mad if you went in the other direction). I’m not saying that San Diego will get to double digit runs but I’m also not saying that it’s not within the realm of reasonable outcomes either. Another interesting play is Allen Cordoba if you need to spend down at OF. He’s not a very consistent guy but he’s had enough good games that we know he’s got one in him in the right situation.
New York Mets: John Lackey has exactly one thing going for him, his name is John Lackey. Put his numbers on a lesser name and nobody would be scared of this matchup. Lackey has given up exactly 5 ER in three of his last four starts. He’s giving up about the same number of fly balls as ground balls and that’s led to him giving up 6 HR over those four starts. The Mets are a good play against most RHP, so to take them against one that is struggling is a no-brainer for me. I’m looking at Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda, Neil Walker, and Yoenis Cespedes (if he’s in the lineup). You could also fit in Michael Conforto but he’s a bit pricey considering he’s only had 5 hits over his last ten games (33 AB).
Chicago White Sox: There is no team in baseball with a better batting average against LHP than the Chicago White Sox. I’ve been riding them against LHP all year and it’s worked out really well. The power that was lacking from them is slowly starting to come around as well, so your upside with this stack is no longer limited. Also helping the power upside for CWS is Wade Miley as the opposing pitcher. His early season heroics are a thing of the past and now “he’s just being Miley” (bonus points if you get the reference). For the Sox, let’s go with Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia, Todd Frazier, and Melky Cabrera. If you need help at either MI positions, Yolmer Sanchez and/or Tim Anderson aren’t horrible plays for their prices.
Other names to consider:
Nomar Mazara (TEX/OF): Mazara is a really good hitter and is vastly underrated in DFS. Over his last ten games he’s got a .350 BA and he’s even better against Joe Musgrove with a .455 BA and 2 HR in 11 at bats. Let’s not forget that Musgrove is coming off an injury and I love targeting those pitchers.
Seth Smith (BAL/OF): If you’re not stacking Orioles, it still might be a good idea to take a long look at Smith tonight if he’s leading off for Baltimore. In 20 career at bats against Mike Pelfrey he’s got a .450 BA with 4 XBH, and you can get that for a very reasonable price tag.
George Springer (HOU/OF): Springer is a pretty obvious name most nights but tonight against Yu Darvish it’s quite likely that people are going to avoid him. I’d say that this is probably a bad idea since he kind of owns Darvish (.400 BA, 2 HR, 15 AB). As a matter of fact, I don’t have them on “Stacks” list but the Astros make for a really interesting HuLo type stack tonight. I’d definitely consider a mini-stack of Reddick or Marwin Gonzalez with Springer.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.