The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – June 13, 2017 June 13, 2017  |  Doug Shain


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Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for June 13, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.

Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.

For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.

I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.

One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.

 

Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!

***These plays are NOT ranked in order of preference***

HuLo PitchersHuLo StacksSample Lineups
Tyler Chatwood (COL/RHP) @ Pittsburgh Pirates: $7.7k DK/$8.0k FDSan Diego Padres vs Scott Feldman (CIN/RHP)Fanduel: Clayton Kershaw ($12500), Austin Hedges ($2400), Matt Adams ($2700), Jose Pirela ($2500), Yangervis Solarte ($3100), Elvis Andrus ($3400), Franchy Cordero ($2400), Mitch Haniger ($3000), Andrew Benintendi ($2800)
Christian Bergman (SEA/RHP) @ Minnesota Twins: $6.7k DK/$8.0 FDArizona Diamondbacks @ Buck Farmer (DET/RHP)Draft Kings: Tyler Chatwood ($7700), Christian Bergman ($6700), Mike Zunino ($3600), Paul Goldschmidt ($5400), Robinson Cano ($4400), Jake Lamb ($5300), Andrelton Simmons ($3900), Nelson Cruz ($4800), Nomar Mazara ($4400), Mitch Haniger ($3800)
Jason Vargas (KC/LHP) @ San Francisco Giants: $8.3k DK/$8.5k FDLos Angeles Angels vs CC Sabathia (NYY/LHP)Fantasy Draft: Clayton Kershaw ($25200), David Price ($19600), Jose Pirela ($6000), Jake Lamb ($10200), Matt Adams ($6900), Brian Goodwin ($5600), Mallex Smith ($6900), Wil Myers ($6600), Franchy Cordero ($4800), Kyle Seager ($8100)
Chalk Pitchers: David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Jon Lester, Buck Farmer, CC SabathiaChalk Stacks: Washington Nationals, Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros, New York Yankees

Do you want to know more about my new pitching stat, SPOT? Check it out here.

Pitchers

Tyler Chatwood (COL/RHP): Have I mentioned my belief that “Road” Tyler Chatwood is a thing? After another stellar outing away from Coors, Chatwood now has a 2.53 ERA and .171 BAA on the road this season. If we only look at his last four road starts, those numbers look even better (1.38 ERA with 24 K’s). Pittsburgh is not a high-powered offense against RHP with only 42 HR (third worst in MLB) and a .396 SLG (seventh worst in MLB). PNC Park is pitcher friendly so I would think that we should see a very solid outing from Chatwood tonight. He should get some run support so a win is definitely a strong possibility as well. He’s a stud SP2 on DK if you’re paying up for pitching and solid SP1 if you want to spend up on batters.

Christian Bergman (SEA/RHP): We are now at three good starts in a row, and four out of five, for Bergman. I think the kid might be able to pitch a little bit in the big leagues. Over those three starts he’s had 14 K’s in 18 IP with only 3 ER allowed (1.50 ERA). I’m a little concerned about his walk totals (3.0 BB/9 over those three starts) and his ground ball to fly ball ratio (18:20), but so far he hasn’t let those numbers kill him and it’s not like the Twins are the Washington Nationals. If this trend continues past this start he might be a guy to stack against in the future, but for now his stuff should play in this matchup, particularly with MIN’s 25.1% K-rate against RHP.

Jason Vargas (KC/LHP): I find Jason Vargas’s success very hard to explain but there’s no denying that he’s been a whole new pitcher this season. His K-rate isn’t spectacular (7.1 K/9) but he keeps the all in the yard (0.7 HR/9) and he doesn’t really walk anyone (2.1 BB/9) so his mistakes are very limited. That has led to a really nice 2.18 ERA and 1.12 WHIP this season. I love his matchup today against the weak-hitting Giants (only 13 HR and a .351 SLG against LHP), and at his price you’ll surely be able to get a number of good hitters in your lineup if you use him. It always feels like the other shoe can drop at any minute with Vargas but given the matchup, I don’t think that shoe drops today.

 

 

 

Stacks

San Diego Padres: I am oddly fascinated by the San Diego Padres offense. They send down one of their three best power hitters (Ryan Schimpf), they lose their leadoff man (Manuel Margot), and yet they start to pick up their offense. That’s wild to me, but I sure do love what I’m seeing out of this team. Austin Hedges, Yangervis Solarte, Wil Myers, and Hunter Renfroe are all playing pretty well as of late but my guy on this team is Jose Pirela. I’ll have more to say about him later on but just know that if you’re going to stack Padres, he’s the guy to get. Scott Feldman may be the “ace” of this Reds pitching staff but he does nothing for me and he’s very prone to a giving up a big game (half of his last ten starts have seen him give up 4+ earned runs). These young Padres are hot and I’m going to ride them one more time in this tasty matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks: I know that it sounds nuts but the D’backs may really be a HuLo stack on this huge slate. There are a lot of good matchups from other teams, Arizona is not going to be at home, and they are facing the hot waiver wire name of the week in Buck Farmer. Now, I know that Buck Farmer is bad but apparently he’s everyone’s favorite shiny new toy and I’m going to exploit that in DFS. Buck Farmer is, was, and always will be a #4 starter at best and he just had the two best games of his career. The odds of a massive regression coming today are high and I want to be on the winning side of that. Give me Rake Lamb, Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Owings, and David Peralta for my stack today. If Gregor Blanco hits at the top of this lineup with the DH in play, I might not be opposed to using him. The same goes for Chris Herrmann if he gets in the game with a righty on the mound. Regardless of who you surround them with, Goldy and Lamb are musts for any D’backs stack.

Los Angeles Angels: I have really enjoyed the CC Sabathia resurgence. He’s been a lot of fun to use in DFS and he’s gained back a ton of trust after some really down years. That fun time is over and it’s time for the Angels to smash. I know that even with Mike Trout in this lineup it wasn’t all that great but there are some guys playing really well right now for LAA and I want to jump all over the double whammy potential that this game gives us. Cameron Maybin, Andrelton Simmons, Kole Calhoun, and Eric Young Jr are all playing really well currently and they should be able to get to Sabathia a little bit tonight. Add in guys like Albert Pujols and Martin Maldonado for some power potential and you have a really nice roster of players to choose from in this matchup tonight.

 

 

Other names to consider:

Matt Adams (ATL/1B): Matt Adams really likes being an Atlanta Brave, especially when he gets to hit at home. He’s been a monster lately with 6 HR over his last 11 games, including two double dong games. The Braves sure do miss Freddie Freeman, but Adams is helping ease the blow quite a bit. His price is way too low considering how hitter friendly his new home ballpark is. He torched Strasburg and friends last night, and Joe Ross is not Stephen Strasburg.

Jose Pirela (SD/2B): If you have to ask why, you’re not doing fantasy right. This kid is 7 games into his career, he’s hitting .500 with 6 XBH, he hits at the top of the Padres order, and he’s still incredibly cheap. I don’t care how high his ownership is going to be, and it shouldn’t be too high on a 14 game slate, I’m all over him if I want to punt 2B.

Clayton Kershaw (LAD/LHP): Yeah, I snuck him in here to see if you were paying attention. It’s entirely possible that I’m dead wrong about Kershaw being chalk today. He’s on the road and facing a very good Indians offense. What if people don’t want to pay up for him? It’s entirely reasonable to think that on a 14 game slate we may see Kershaw at under 15% owned. I’m more than happy to be a part of that 15% when he goes out and does Clayton Kershaw things. There are plenty of value options on a slate this size to make a Kershaw lineup that has plenty of upside.

 

Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.

Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2 Responses

  1. Dan says:

    Pirela – not a kid. 27 or 28 years old. Not 7 games into his big leauge career when he made his debut for the yankees 4 years ago.

    Spot on.

    • Doug Shain says:

      My sincerest apologies. Despite the mistakes, analysis still stands. The NOT KID is hitting great, is cheap, and still has a prime spot in the Padres order. Feel free to fade the Padres because of this horrific oversight if you feel you must. #spoton

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