The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – June 14, 2017
June 14, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for June 14, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
***These plays are NOT ranked in order of preference***
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|German Marquez (COL/RHP) @ Pittsburgh Pirates: $6.7k DK/$7.4k FD||Philadelphia Phillies vs Brian Johnson (BOS/LHP)||Fanduel: Corey Kluber ($10200), Jonathan Lucroy ($2600), Matt Carpenter ($3300), Robinson Cano ($3100), Kyle Seager ($3400), Eric Sogard ($3100), Kole Calhoun ($3400), Andrew Benintendi ($3000), Aaron Altherr ($2900)|
|Sam Gaviglio (SEA/RHP) @ Minnesota Twins: $5.6k DK/$7.3k FD||Seattle Mariners @ Ervin Santana (MIN/RHP)||Draft Kings: German Marquez ($6700), Corey Kluber ($12500), Mike Zunino ($3800), Anthony Rizzo ($4600), Rougned Odor ($3800), Joey Gallo ($4200), Freddy Galvis ($2400), Kole Calhoun ($3700), Nomar Mazara ($4600), Aaron Altherr ($3700)|
|Brandon McCarthy (LAD/RHP) @ Cleveland Indians: $7.6k DK/$7.8k FD||Texas Rangers @ Francis Martex (HOU/RHP)||Fantasy Draft: Sam Gaviglio ($11100), Brandon McCarthy ($15000), Paul Goldschmidt ($10500), Jake Lamb ($10000), Anthony Rizzo ($9000), George Springer ($9600), Andrew Benintendi ($9200), Nelson Cruz ($8800), Kris Bryant ($8700), Joey Gallo ($8100)|
|Chalk Pitchers: Corey Kluber, Ervin Santana, Dylan Bundy, Michael Pineda||Chalk Stacks: Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Arizona Diamondbacks, Detroit Tigers, Minnesota Twins, Houston Astros, New York Yankees|
Do you want to know more about my new pitching stat, SPOT? Check it out here.
German Marquez (COL/RHP): Don’t let yesterday’s final score fool you, Tyler Chatwood was excellent against the Pirates. It was only when Adam Ottavino came on that the flood gates were blown wide open. I expect a similar performance out of Marquez today as we got from Chatwood yesterday. Pittsburgh still doesn’t hit RHP very well and Marquez has been surprisingly good this year with only two true blowouts in his last ten starts (both of which were at home). In five road starts this season, Marquez has a 3.24 ERA with an 11.2 K/9, 3:1 K to BB ratio, and only 2 HR allowed (0.7 HR/9). The biggest concern I have with Marquez is that he’s rarely going more than 5 innings, but then again I’m not going to complain if he can give me 5IP/6K/2ER with a win (COL should be able to get to Chad Kuhl on offense). For his price, I really like the potential here.
Sam Gaviglio (SEA/RHP): It’s really hard to stomach using a pitcher against a team that just scored 20 runs in one game but let’s be real, the Twins are NOT putting up 20 runs again tonight. They might not put up 20 runs the rest of the week combined. Gaviglio is not going to give you more than 5 or 6 innings but if those innings are similar to what we’ve seen over his last two starts then we are in for a really nice return on his low price tag. Those two starts saw him go 11IP/11K/2ER with a 20:2 ground ball to fly ball ratio. Both of those fly balls went out of the ballpark but I’ll gladly accept that if we get the other numbers to hit those two game averages. He’s especially intriguing on DK as an SP2 at only $5.6k as his last two games have seen him hit 3.5x on that number and I’m always happy to get that type of return on a pitcher punt. Using Gaviglio opens up a lot of possibilities for what you can do with the rest of your team.
Brandon McCarthy (LAD/RHP): With McCarthy going up against Corey Kluber today, it’s very likely that the majority of the ownership in this game will go the way of the Cleveland ace. While I’m not opposed to using Kluber (especially in cash or paired with Gaviglio), if you want to go truly contrarian then McCarthy should be your top choice today. His numbers this year point to a VERY low SPOT Factor: a high ground ball to fly ball ratio (nearing 2:1), a low walk rate (2.4 BB/9), a high K to BB ratio (3.4:1), and an elite home run rate (0.7 HR/9). All this means that he’s not going to give the Indians a ton to work with and if they’re not on their “A” game, he’s going to get them good. If we can get a game of 6IP/6K/2ER then we should feel pretty good as he’s going to probably go 2x or more on his DK price and nearly 3.5x on his FD price. If he ends up outdueling Kluber for a win, then his value jumps up even more.
Philadelphia Phillies: The Tigers shoed us what will happen if you are patient with Brian Johnson; he’s going to give up fly balls, home runs, and get pounded. We’ve now seen Johnson look suboptimal in two of his three starts and that shutout of Seattle is starting to seem more of an aberration than anything else. I’m not in love with the Phillies offense (why would anyone be?) but they’ve got enough pieces to take advantage of a hurler that gives up too many fly balls and wastes too many pitches (105 pitches in only 4.1 IP against DET). I’m looking at Aaron Altherr and Tommy Joseph as my locks for this stack and I’m probably backing that up with Howie Kendrick and either Odubel Herrera (if you did lefty on lefty violence) or Maikel Franco (if you think a turnaround is imminent).
Seattle Mariners: Lost in the fact that Minnesota popped off for 20 ER yesterday was Seattle’s 7 run effort. Yeah, the Mariners get killed but those 7 runs play very well in DFS. I think that people are going to be way off them yesterday due to a mixture of the perception that they’re not hitting and that Ervin Santana is on the mound. Guys like Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano hit Santana really well and I’m more than happy to give them a shot if they are going to be low owned (and they will be). I love Mitch Haniger and Kyle Seager as well, but I’m also not ruling out Mike Zunino at my C position or Jarrod Dyson in the OF. Both have things they do very well (Zunino with the HR and Dyson with the SB) for the prices you have to pay for them. There’s a lot of double whammy potential with this stack, and let’s not forget that Santana’s worst games this year have come at home (where he’s allowed 7 HR vs only 2 HR on the road in a similar number of innings).
Texas Rangers: Outside of what I can find on DK, I don’t really know anything about Martes. What I do see is a guy that gives up a ton of runs. The Rangers are starting to hit a bit but I don’t think that people are going to be on them with so many other solid options for bats (the pitching is so bad today). With that in mind, I’m going to go for the gusto with Rougned Odor, Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara, and Jonathan Lucroy. If you want power, that’s where you’re going to have to look. The only real issue I have with that stack is that they are a bit pricey (at least they’re not at Elvis Andrus levels of pricing though). If you want to save some money, jump on guys like Delino DeShields, Jared Hoying, or Ryan Rua if they are in the lineup.
Other names to consider:
Tim Beckham/Derek Norris (TB/SS/C): These guys hit LHP really well and it’s always fun to pick on Francisco Liriano. I’m aware that TB is a lot better against RHP than LHP this year but these two guys kind of buck that trend. Heck, Tim Beckham is good against anyone these days and is well worth his price tag as he’s usually very low owned. If you wanted to go full on stack with TB you can obviously add in Evan Longoria and Steven Souza and you’ll be in pretty good shape.
Eric Sogard (MIL/SS): Sogard has been hitting in a prime lineup spot for the Brewers and he’s excelled there with .270 BA and 3 XBh over his last ten games (37 AB). For his low price, you really can’t ask for too much more than that. He’s got just enough pop that he’s an enticing play today with the platoon advantage against Mike Leake.
Kole Calhoun (LAA/OF): Calhoun is hitting like an All Star right now. Over his last ten game he’s got a .412 BA with 3 HR and 12 RBI. Michael Pineda has a high upside, but he’s also been known to give up the big fly from time to time and it wouldn’t shock me to see Calhoun take advantage tonight. I love that he’s got the platoon advantage and comes at a discounted price. I’m all aboard this train.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.