The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – June 15, 2017
June 15, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for June 15, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
***These plays are NOT ranked in order of preference***
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Sonny Gray (OAK/RHP) vs New York Yankees: $7.7k DK/$8.2k FD||Oakland Athletics vs Jordan Montgomery (NYY/LHP)||Fanduel: Justin Verlander ($9300), Salvador Perez ($3400), Ryon Healy ($3200, Jed Lowrie ($2400), Mike Moustakas ($3300), Andrelton Simmons ($3400), Cameron Maybin ($3300), Lorenzo Cain ($3200), Eric Young Jr ($3400)|
|Jeff Hoffman (COL/RHP) vs San Francisco Giants: $7.5k DK/$6.6k FD||Kansas City Royals @ Ricky Nolasco (LAA/RHP)||Draft Kings: Jeff Hoffman ($7500), Sonny Gray ($7700), Salvador Perez ($3800), Ryon Healy ($3600), Daniel Murphy ($4700), Mike Moustakas ($4500, Xander Bogaerts ($4700), Cameron Maybin ($4700), Lorenzo Cain ($4300), Khris Davis ($4200)|
|Zach Davies (MIL/RHP) @ St Louis Cardinals: $7.5k DK/$7.9k FD||Los Angeles Angels vs Matt Strahm (KC/LHP)||Fantasy Draft: Chris Sale ($27200), Justin Verlander ($15200), Mike Moustakas ($8700), Salvador Perez ($7600), Ryon Healy ($7200), Lorenzo Cain ($8400), Eric Young Jr ($6400), Juan Lagares ($6000), Albert Pujols ($6600), Jorge Bonifacio ($6400)|
|Chalk Pitchers: Chris Sale, Jordan Montgomery, Gio Gonzalez, Justin Verlander||Chalk Stacks: Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Washington Nationals, Colorado Rockies, San Francisco Giants|
Do you want to know more about my new pitching stat, SPOT? Check it out here.
Sonny Gray (OAK/RHP): Given the state of their offenses, it’s highly probably that Jordan Montgomery is going to be the pitcher people choose in this game over Sonny Gray. On a short slate like tonight, that gives up a great opportunity to take a pitcher like Gray at a discounted ownership and a good deal of upside. The double whammy potential using Gray against the Yankees is HUGE in a seven game slate. If there ever was a time to use Gray against NYY it’s tonight, on this slate, at home. In four starts at home this year, Gray has a 2.92 ERA, has only given up 1 HR, and is rocking a 9.9 K/9. The price on Gray is very reasonable and allows you to load up on bats.
Jeff Hoffman (COL/RHP): Look at the Coors discount you get on Hoffman over on Fanduel! $6.6k for a guy that can strike out 8 guys in 6 innings? Heck yes I want that, even at Coors Field. We’ve seen teams struggle time and again in their first games of a series at Coors, so I don’t know why this should scare anyone. On top of that, the Giants offense is awful with relatively no power. Hoffman doesn’t make many mistakes (only 3 BB and 3 HR allowed this year in 27 IP), so I don’t know why I’d run away from him today. Even on DK he makes for a very nice SP2 along with Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Gio Gonzalez, or Sonny Gray as your SP1.
Zach Davies (MIL/RHP): I really don’t trust Davies all that much and probably won’t use him myself, but he’s had enough solid outings this year that we should at least talk about him for a bit. He’s got a little bit of strikeout potential but what I like most about him is that he has an elite ground ball to fly ball ratio (47:16 over his last four games). Over that time he’s only given up 3 HR in 22 innings of work. If we can 5+ K’s from him, and he can keep the ball on the ground, then we should be able to squeeze just enough value out of him to make this a worthy play. For my money I’m using Gray or Hoffman instead, but Davies will have nearly no ownership and that does count for something on a seven game slate.
Oakland Athletics: I really, really like Jordan Montgomery. I suspect I won’t be the only person who feels this way about him tonight and we are probably going to see 30+% ownership on him. Oakland has too much pop for me to invest that kind of cost and ownership on him on such a short slate. I’d much rather go the other way and load up on Oakland bats and try to hit the double whammy. Guys like Ryon Healy (5 HR and 13 RBI over his last ten games), Khris Davis (.385 BA over his last ten games), Jed Lowrie, and Rajai Davis can definitely get over on a lefty like Montgomery. Heck, I’d even take a look at a couple struggling players like Chad Pinder and Mark Canha if they are well positioned in the Oakland lineup.
***Game Stack Alert***
Kansas City Royals: Ricky Nolasco is no bueno. Like, super no bueno. The guy has given up 19 HR on the season in only 73 IP (2.3 HR/9) and his home ERA of 5.81 give me no hope that he’s turning it around any time soon. The Royals, on the other hand, have a few bats that are becoming very interesting, very quickly. Mike Moustakas is finally playing like the guy we expected him to be all those year ago (18 HR on the season), Jorge Bonifacio is cheap and has been a nice source of power (6 RBI over his last two games), Lorenzo Cain is finally Lorenzo Cain again (4 HR over his last seven games), and Whit Merrifield has been one of the best surprises of the season with a .285 BA and a nice power/speed combination (6HR/6SB). All of this is without mentioning Salvador Perez, a guy who kills Nolasco (.381 BA with 5 XBH in 21 AB) or Eric Hosmer (.366 BA with 2 HR over his last ten games). For my money, I’m going with the power quartet of Moose, Cain, Bonifacio, and Perez although I’d have no issue with adding Hosmer to go all in on this game.
Los Angeles Angels: On the other side of the diamond from KC is the Angels. They are a really fun little offense right now with guys like Kole Calhoun, Cameron Maybin (league leader in SB), Eric Young Jr, Andrelton Simmons, and Albert Pujols all picking up the slack in Mike Trout’s absence. Heck, even Danny Espinosa is in play with his power potential. Tonight they get Matt Strahm, a lefty reliever that’s making his first MLB start tonight. This isn’t like when Brad Peacock went from the bullpen to the rotation with a pedigree either, Strahm has been bad in relief with a 7.4 BB/9, 1.6 HR/9, and 4.50 ERA in 22 innings pitched. This game has the potential to really get out of hand and I want exposure to both sides of it.
Other names to consider:
Juan Lagares (NYM/OF): Since his return to the Mets lineup, Lagares has been hitting really well. Over his last ten games he’s had 25 AB and has recorded a .360 BA in those at bats. Against Gio Gonzalez, Lagares is even better with a .395 BA and 5 XBH in 38 career AB. He is an excellent look if you need to spend down a little bit in the OF.
Andrew Benintendi (BOS/OF): Benintendi is crazy expensive today (at least on DK), but he may very well be worth it. Over his last ten games he’s hitting .359 with 4 HR and 11 RBI. Against Nick Pivetta, I expect him to have another solid night tonight.
Aaron Altherr (PHI/OF): I wouldn’t go so far as to say that you should stack against Chris Sale, but Altherr is the best bat on the Phillies, has homered in back to back games, and has the platoon advantage. If you want a little double whammy action against the clear chalk pitcher on the night, Altherr is the guy you want to roster.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.