The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – June 16, 2017
June 15, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for June 16, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
***These plays are NOT ranked in order of preference***
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Joe Biagini (TOR/RHP) vs Chicago White Sox: $6.9k DK/$7.7k FD||Philadelphia Phillies vs Patrick Corbin (ARI/LHP)||Fanduel: Sean Manaea ($8400), Russell Martin ($2400), Eric Thames ($3300), Jose Pirela ($2800), Yangervis Solarte ($3200), Brandon Crawford ($3800), Franchy Cordero ($3000), George Springer ($4100), Giancarlo Stanton ($4000)|
|Dan Straily (MIA/RHP) @ Atlanta Braves: $7.6k DK/$8.3k FD||Miami Marlins @ Sean Newcomb (ATL/LHP)||Draft Kings: Sean Manaea ($7300), Max Scherzer ($12900), Derek Norris ($2800), Tyler Moore ($3500), Jose Pirela ($3800), Maikel Franco ($3100), Eric Sogard ($3700), Giancarlo Stanton ($4700), Marcell Ozuna ($4500), Franchy Cordero ($3700)|
|Sean Manaea (OAK/LHP) vs New York Yankees: $7.3k DK/$8.4k FD||San Diego Padres @ Junior Guerra (MIL/RHP)||Fantasy Draft: Joe Biagini ($13800), Sean Manaea ($14400), Anthony Rizzo ($9300), Kris Bryant ($9300), Brandon Belt ($9000), George Springer ($9600), Giancarlo Stanton ($9300), Ian Happ ($8400), Tyler Moore ($6800), Jake Lamb ($10000)|
|Chalk Pitchers: Max Scherzer, Carlos Martinez, Alex Wood, Carlos Carrasco, Luis Severino||Chalk Stacks: Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays, Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers, Cleveland Indians, Houston Astros, Boston Red Sox, Colorado Rockies, San Francisco Giants|
Do you want to know more about my new pitching stat, SPOT? Check it out here.
Joe Biagini (TOR/RHP): Look, when you can recommend a 1-5 pitcher to your loyal reader base, you have to take that opportunity. What could go wrong? Ok, a lot could go wrong with rostering Joe Biagini. Let’s not forget that we are in the business of shooting the moon and this guy gives you that shot. He’s been reasonably good over his last three starts (20IP/18K/4BB/6ER). Those numbers don’t look too bad if they’re attached to a guy not named Joe Biagini, who was 0-3 during that stretch. The one thing that Biagini does that I love is he keeps the ball on the ground. His ground ball to fly ball rate is 45:17 over his last four starts, and that’s resulted in only 1 HR allowed. The White Sox are not a very good offense against RHP and the SPOT Factor is pretty low with Biagini. I’m not in love with him, but the more I write about him the more I’m in heavy like with him. Pair him with Scherzer to lower the effective cost on your pitching staff or put him with a guy like Sean Manaea and get all the bats you little heart desires.
Dan Straily (MIA/RHP): The thought of using Straily makes me a little ill. He’s got so much upside (games of 14 and 10 K over his last ten starts) but the lows are really gross (4IP/4ER in his last start, which was against the lowly Pirates). The Braves are far from a solid matchup for Straily but with so many high level pitching options, it’s nice to see a guy priced down a bit who can get you to double digit K’s when his stuff is working. Let’s not forget that last year this guy was a light’s out for the Reds for a really long stretch. He’s faced ATL once this year and had a game that I wouldn’t be mad if he replicated (5IP/5K/2ER with a win).
Sean Manaea (OAK/LHP): Why not Sean Manaea? He’s rounding into a really nice #2 type pitcher. He’s got a 3.67 ERA and is a K per inning guy. The last time he faced the Yankees he was dominant with a line of 7IP/8K/1BB/0ER. I don’t expect that level of production again but it’s not unreasonable to expect an average of his last four games (27IP/29K/7BB/5ER). All four of those games would give him a return on investment that would make me very happy to use him today at his mid-tier pricing. The best thing about Manaea is that he doesn’t make mistakes. His 0.7 HR/9 rate gives me all the warm and fuzzies as he enters this tough matchup tonight.
Philadelphia Phillies: Oh Philadelphia, how do you keep roping into writing about you? Just once I’d like to write about the Yankees or the Cubs (read more below, I actually get to give the Cubbies their due tonight). With so much chalk on the slate, you kind of have to look at Philly if you want to really zoom up a GPP leaderboard. Nobody is going to be on this team but they very well should be. Patrick Corbin is awful on the road (9.00 ERA with 8 HR allowed in 25 innings over five starts). The Phillies have a pretty nice complement of righty bats that can properly take advantage of this matchup. My guys are Aaron Altherr, Freddy Galvis, Tommy Joseph, and Maikel Franco. They might not look like a hot stack but all four will be under 5% owned and can give you a nice return on their low prices.
Miami Marlins: A right-handed heavy Marlins team is going up against a rookie LHP in a hitter’s ballpark? Yes, please! I’m all over this play. The Marlins are hitting the cover off the ball right now and I’d consider them against most pitchers, let alone a rookie lefty. How do you not use Tyler Moore at this point? He’s hitting .361 with 4 HR, 4 2B, and 12 RBI over his last ten games and his price is a bargain. Marcell Ozuna is almost as hot with a .390 BA and 8 XBH over his last ten games. These are legitimate MLB hitters. Add them to Giancarlo Stanton and Dee Gordon and you’ve got a murder’s row of right-handed bats going up against Sean Newcomb. It’s not crazy at all to envision a scenario where the Marlins are the highest scoring team on tonight’s slate.
San Diego Padres: Oh my beloved Padres. I’ve never been a huge fan of this team but they sure came through for me this week against the Reds (both in DFS and with my bets). I’m going to go back to them again and continue to ride the hot streak. Jose Pirela, Franchy Cordero, Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe, Yangervis Solarte, and Austin Hedges are all in play tonight against Junior Guerra. It’ll be nice for the Padres to finally get some swings in a park that’s not Petco. If I’m going to narrow this stack down, it’ll end up being Pirela, Cordero, Myers, and Renfroe. If the lineup shakes out in a way that has Hedges in a prime spot, I’d love to use him as my catcher today. Don’t sleep on these Frisky Friars.
Other names to consider:
Jake Marisnick (HOU/OF): Marisnick is about the fifth or sixth name you’ll consider when looking at Astros tonight but he might be the best value of the bunch. While you’re paying up for the big boys, or fighting for ownership of Derek Fisher, Marisnick comes into the game with a .400 BA and 3 XBH in 10 career AB against Drew Pomeranz. Remember, it’s Marisnick who has the platoon advantage here, not Fisher.
Albert Pujols (LAA/1B): I probably should pay more attention to the Angels as a whole against Ian Kennedy, but if I was going to only look at one of their players tonight it could very well be Pujols. He has the price/upside combination that really works on tonight’s slate. He’s also got the BvP against Kennedy to help you feel more comfortable working him into your lineup (.333 BA with 3 HR in 15 AB).
Ian Desmond (COL/1B/OF): It’s weird to have a Rockies batter on this list but Desmond has been underwhelming for most of the year so he warrants a spot. That struggle is starting to turn itself around and Desmond is finally starting to hit like people thought he would when he signed with Colorado (.306 BA over his last ten games). Today’s matchup is great as he’s hit Samardzija well in his career (.444 BA with 4 XBH in 18 AB).
Chicago Cubs: If you take a look at my Chalk Stacks list you’ll notice that it’s pretty long. Clearly we can’t have this many chalk teams but I at a loss as to who from that list could emerge as an ownership value. Aside from a couple of good outings, the Cubs may be a team that people are going to overlook on today’s slate because of their struggles on offense. I love what they’ve done with the top of their lineup (Rizzo/Happ) and I think it’s going to pay off very well, very soon. The matchup tonight against Trevor Williams is quite juicy and I could see the aforementioned Rizzo/Happ combo having a good game along with a guy like Kris Bryant. It’s high time this offense turns things on and shows what they can do.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.