The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – June 17, 2017
June 17, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for June 17, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
Early Slate (4:05pm EST) Musings:
I hate when the sites don’t make the large early slate the main slate for the day. Alas, that is where we are at here with an 8-game slate being the secondary slate of the day, while the 4-game later slate is the main slate. It’s stupid but it is what it is and we all have to deal with it.
This is a robust slate and there are a lot of solid options for you at the plate, while there are very little for your pitching slot. I’ll start with pitching where I think people are going to pay up for guys like Chris Archer, Stephen Strasburg, Chase Anderson, Michael Fulmer, and Jaime Garcia. I have relatively little issue with using Strasburg against the Mets but I’m, of course, fading all the chalky pitchers today. Archer isn’t as good on the road as he is at home and the Tigers can flat out hit. There’s some double whammy potential for you if you decide to stack Tigers instead of using Archer. As you’ll see in my DK sample lineup, I’ve done just that. Anderson is on a huge roll but so are the Padres and if you’ve read anything I’ve written the last week, you know that I’m smitten with San Diego right now. I’m going full double whammy today and loading up on Padres bats. I love me my Padres. As for Fulmer and Garcia, I don’t trust them at all and think they are in less than ideal spots today (TB hammers RHP and MIA hammers everyone). My triad of pitchers for today are Masahiro Tanaka, Zack Godley, and Dinelson Lamet. I wrote on Monday that if you’re not using Tanaka for his two matchups this week, why ever use him? He came through on Monday and, true to my word, I’m back on him again today in Oakland. The A’s have been plucky in this series but the last time Tanaka faced them he was dominant and I expect much of the same today. He’s slowly finding his form and this might be the last time we can get him at a discount for a while. Godley has been god-like this season with only one really bad start all year. He’s facing the hapless Phillies and I expect another 6+ innings of solid work. Finally, I’m back on Lamet again today after he got crushed in his last two starts (8IP/14ER). I have no delusions of grandeur, I know he’s going to get hit. At his price though, he totally can get hit and still pay off if he continues to strike guys out at his current pace (12.5 K/9). Give me 5IP/8K/4ER and I’m probably going to be really happy. With the way that Milwaukee strike out, this is not an unreasonable line to expect.
For my bats I’m going with the aforementioned Padres and Tigers and probably backing them up with Dodgers and Marlins. I love the matchup for all of those teams and think I can use them at a reasonable ownership. There are so many bats on today’s slate that are going to be popular (BAL, WSH, STL, NYY, ARI, and MIL) that we can use some of these nicer matchups and be ok. The one big change I’m making to my Padres stack today is that I’m going to be passing on Jose Pirela (who I love) and using Yangervis Solarte instead. I am tired of missing out on those points by skipping his batting slot. With a 2-5 stack, I can still benefit from Pirela (with RBIs that players get for knocking him in) but not miss out on a big run. Also, Pirela’s price is no longer a value so I’d rather use the guy with the higher upside, and that’s Solarte. If you’re not going to use Lamet, then the Brewers are a really good stack to use since I can see them scoring a lot of runs despite the massive amount of times they are going to strike out. Fanduel includes the Texas/Seattle game and I’m more than happy to use either of the offense there with two gas cans on the mound. My preference is to roll with Mariners as they’ve historically obliterated Martin Perez.
Fanduel (early): Masahiro Tanaka ($8400), Mike Zunino ($3200), Wil Myers ($3600), Robinson Cano ($3300), Yangervis Solarte ($3200), Chris Owings ($3100), Nelson Cruz ($4300), Hunter Renfroe ($2900), Franchy Cordero ($3000)
DraftKings (early): Masahiro Tanaka ($8600), Zack Godley ($8400), Alex Avila ($3500), Wil Myers ($3800), Yangervis Solarte ($4100), Travis Shaw ($4500), Trea Turner ($5000), Hunter Renfroe ($3600), Franchy Cordero ($3700), JD Martinez ($4600)
Late Slate (8:10pm EST) Musings:
Do we have to play this slate? It’s such hot garbage! How does this get made the main slate over the early slate? So dumb! Have I mentioned this?? Ok, let’s dive into this abomination of a slate.
Jake Arrieta is going to be the chalkiest chalk chalk that ever did chalk. He’s the most talented pitcher with the best matchup. Therefore, I’m not touching him. I wouldn’t touch him even if he was a HuLo guy. I have no trust for Arrieta at this point. Rick Porcello is kind of the American League version of Arrieta for me. I don’t trust him at all, and he doesn’t even have a good matchup. I like the bats in the CLE/MIN game so I’m not going near their pitching, and David Paulino against the Red Sox is a big no go for me. That leaves three guys that are on my radar tonight: Ivan Nova, Alex Meyer, and Jake Junnis. I like Nova and the matchup isn’t so bad, assuming the Cubs aren’t out of their hitting funk. With the total lack of strikeouts from Nova this year, I’m not sure I’m willing to take that change. With all that said, I’m going to be going a little wild and will be stacking the pitching in the LAA/KC game. Both Junis and Meyer are inexpensive enough that I don’t mind if I’m sacrificing a chance to get a win with one of the. They both have just enough upside, and are facing just bad enough offense, to make them each appealing to me. Meyer has really upped is strikeout game this year with a 10.9 K/9 over his last six starts. That excellent K-rate comes with 4.05 ERA and 5.9 BB/9 but you can’t have everything with a value pitcher. Junis is an even bigger shot in the dark with only one “successful” start under his belt (7IP/6K/3ER and an 8:11 ground ball to fly ball ratio). Despite the home runs allowed, he killed his price that day and that’s all I’m looking for. These are the kinds of things one must do on a horrendously poor four game slate.
For my bats, geez, you’d think I can pretty much go anywhere at this point because of my cheap pitching but the pitching isn’t as cheap as you’d think and that leaves me with some decisions to make. I’m probably going to mix and match based on price and matchup. I really don’t love too many of the right-handed bats on Cleveland and, while he doesn’t strike anyone out, Nova doesn’t give up a ton of runs so the Cubs are a little iffy to me as well (especially if I’m going Encarnacion over Rizzo, and I am due to price concerns). I could go full double whammy and hit up the Pirates but I don’t think I need to push things that far. If I want to get a little far away from high ownership I can look to the Twins bats and feel a lot better than if I used Pirates. Eduardo Escobar is on fire right now and is definitely doing to see a spot in my lineup due to his price not increasing to match his current production. Using Derek Fisher of the Astros, he of the platoon advantage and stellar MLB debut, will open up a lot for you with his incredibly inexpensive price.
Fanduel (late): Alex Meyer ($8300), Brian McCann ($3400), Edwin Encarnacion ($3700), Brian Dozier ($3700), Jose Ramirez ($3700), Eduardo Escobar ($3200), Andrew McCutchen ($3200), Derek Fisher ($2200), Andrew Benintendi ($3600)
DraftKings (late): Jake Junis ($6500), Alex Meyer ($7600), Brian McCann ($4100), Edwin Encarnacion ($4900), Ian Happ ($4500), Miguel Sano ($4600), Eduardo Escobar ($3900), Mookie Betts ($5400), Andrew Benintendi ($5100), Derek Fisher ($3300)
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.