The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – June 19, 2017
June 19, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for June 19, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
***These plays are NOT ranked in order of preference***
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Jon Lester (CHC/LHP) vs San Diego Padres: $10.5k DK/$9.9k FD||Kansas City Royals vs Hector Velazquez (BOS/RHP)||Fanduel: Brad Peacock ($7200), Russell Martin ($2200), Justin Bour ($3500), Robinson Cano ($3300), Kyle Seager ($3200), Corey Seager ($3700), Giancarlo Stanton ($4000), Marcell Ozuna ($3800), Nelson Cruz ($4100)|
|Marco Estrada (TOR/RHP) @ Texas Rangers: $7.9k DK/$8.1k FD||Tampa Bay Rays vs Scott Feldman (CIN/RHP)||Draft Kings: Jon Lester ($10500), Marco Estrada ($7900), Derek Norris ($2500), Justin Bour ($4500), Robinson Cano ($4600), Mike Moustakas ($4400), Tim Beckham ($4100), Lorenzo Cain ($4600), Mallex Smith ($3600), Alex Gordon ($3200)|
|Brad Peacock (HOU/RHP) @ Oakland Athletics: $8.1k DK/$7.2k FD||Miami Marlins vs Tanner Roark (WSH/RHP)||Fantasy Draft: Jon Lester ($20400), Marco Estrada ($15300), Justin Bour ($8800), Mike Moustakas ($8400), Kris Bryant ($8800), Alex Gordon ($6300), Nelson Cruz ($9200), Marcell Ozuna ($9000), Robinson Cano ($8800), Derek Norris ($4800)|
|Chalk Pitchers: Clayton Kershaw, Johnny Cueto, Corey Kluber||Chalk Stacks: Houston Astros, Washington Nationals, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays|
Do you want to know more about my new pitching stat, SPOT? Check it out here.
Jon Lester (CHC/LHP): There’s a lot to like about Lester today but I think he’s going to be flying under the radar with Kershaw, Cueto, and Kluber all on the mound tonight. In his last start, Lester rattled off 10K’s while only allowing 1 BB and 1 ER in 7 innings of work. Today’s game is at home, and Lester has been outstanding at Wrigley Field this year with a 2.65 ERA, .204 BAA, and only 3 HR allowed in 51 innings of work. Finally, despite their recent success, the Padres are the worst team in baseball against LHP with a .215 BA, a 27.7% K-rate, and only 17 HR. Look back at their recent run (31 runs in the five games prior to getting shut down on Sunday by a white hot Jimmy Nelson) and you’ll notice that their damage was primarily against RHP. The only LHP they faced in that run was Amir Garrett and he held them to 2 ER in 6 innings while striking out 8 batters; Amir Garrett is no Jon Lester. We’ve got a big game coming here for the lefty. I love Lester as your SP1 across the industry.
Marco Estrada (TOR/RHP): Estrada is on a really bad three game run (12.2IP/17ER with 4 HR allowed). Despite the high volume of runs allowed, Estrada still managed to strike out 14 batters and only walked three over those 12.2 innings. Take those starts and his 3.10 ERA and 10.1 K/9 look really good. The last time Estrada faced the Rangers he had 8 strikeouts and only allowed 1 ER in 6 innings of work. We may not get that level of production in the heat of Texas but he’s a lot closer to that guy than the 12.08 ERA guy we saw over his last three starts. Estrada’s price has dropped significantly with his recent stretch of poor pitching so you’ll have an opportunity to grab him at a nice discount with the expectation that he returns to form. Give me 6IP/7K/3ER with a win and I’m going to be a very happy camper with him.
Brad Peacock (HOU/RHP): Aside from one terrible outing against the Angels, Peacock has been a revelation as a starting pitcher. He may never see more than 6 innings of work but when he’s striking out 8+ batters, I don’t really care about an innings limit. Taking out that Angels game, Peacock’s other four starts have seen him strike out 35 batters in only 19.2 innings of work. That’s a filthy 16.0 K/9; a number I’ll take every time out. The biggest issue you’re going to have with Peacock is that he has been walking a lot of batters (8 total walks over his last 7.2 innings pitched spanning two starts). That won’t fly on a site like DK but at $7.2k on Fanduel, he’s an absolute steal and the clear #1 GPP pitcher for me (just ahead of Jon Lester at $9.9k) on this slate. Don’t forget that FD does not penalize you for walks or hits, while DK does. It wouldn’t shock me to see Peacock get another 8+K’s in 5 innings of work against an Oakland team that has a 27.7% K-rate against RHP.
Kansas City Royals: The Royals are far from a sure thing on offense but they’ve developed a little bit of pop and on this slate they are going to be overlooked. Mike Moustakas is an absolute beast this year (18 HR) and I’m going to be using him against just about any RHP. Eric Hosmer and Alex Gordon are other guys you can use to take advantage of the platoon splits against Hector Velazquez. Gordon only has 3 HR on the season but all of them have come in his last ten games (where he’s also got a 1.019 OPS), so it’s very likely that he’s finally found his stroke. I love his price and plan on using him for salary relief quite a bit. Brandon Moss is another power bat from the left side of the plate that is in play here but I’d probably rather use Salvador Perez or Lorenzo Cain since there are highly more reliable, and quite frankly they have a ton of upside as well (look no further than Cain’s 7 HR and 1.465 OPS) over his last ten games).
Tampa Bay Rays: Scott Feldman has given up 4+ ER in 60% of his last ten starts. I like those odds against a Rays team that can really mash the ball against RHP. Feldman has been weak away from home this year with a 5.58 ERA and .314 BAA, so that gives me further belief that the Rays are going to be one of those teams that gets to 4+ runs. Guys like Logan Morrison, Corey Dickerson, and Colby Rasmus are left-handed bats that should have a field day with a guy like Feldman. Derek Norris is very much in play as a punt catcher today with a .429 BA in his career against Feldman in 14 AB.
Miami Marlins: Tanner Roark isn’t a bad pitcher, it’s just that I really love the Miami bats this year. They aren’t the deepest of offenses but the top of this order is just outstanding for DFS. Justin Bour is a monster, as are Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna. With teams like Houston, Seattle, and Washington probably clogging up the ownership numbers it’s really nice to find an underappreciated team like Miami that can legitimately give you 3+ HR from your stack. To fill out my roster I’m probably look at Christian Yelich, although if I needed a reasonably priced 2B I’d happily turn to Dee Gordon.
Other names to consider:
Clayton Richard (SD/LHP): It’s not totally crazy to think that Richard could put up a good game against the Cubs. They are still running hot and cold, and they have a healthy 25.4% K-rate against LHP. I don’t know if I have the stones to make this play but Richard has had a few good games here and there, so we know he has it in him when the matchup works in his favor. He is an extreme ground ball pitcher and the Cubs can’t hit out of the ballpark what they can’t get in the air. Let’s call this a bug in your ear rather than a hard recommendation.
Matt Kemp (ATL/OF): Kemp has smacked Johnny Cueto around enough in his career (.353 BA, 5 XBH, 34 AB) to make him a viable double whammy type of pick. You’re going to have to pay up to get him, but if Kemp takes off and you have him in your lineup then you’re going to find yourself zooming up GPP standings while all the Cueto owners slip past you.
Wilmer Flores (NYM/2B/3B): It’s never fun to recommend anyone against Clayton Kershaw but if you want some double whammy potential at a cheap price, Flores is a guy to consider. He doesn’t have a particularly good history against Kershaw, but Flores does hit LHP very well. In his career, he’s got a 5.6% HR rate against LHP as opposed to a 2.4% HR rate against RHP. That’s a significant enough of a difference that I’m going to take notice.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.