The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – June 8, 2017
June 7, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for June 8, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
***These plays are NOT ranked in order of preference***
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Derek Holland (CWS/LHP) @ Tampa Bay Rays: $6.6k DK/$7.5k FD||Miami Marlins @ Gerrit Cole (PIT/RHP)||Fanduel: Lance McCullers ($9700), Elias Diaz ($2000), Matt Adams ($2700), Robinson Cano ($3500), Kyle Seager ($3500), JT Riddle ($2800), Danny Santana ($2400), Giancarlo Stanton ($4200), George Springer ($4200)|
|Tyler Chatwood (COL/RHP) @ Chicago Cubs: $7.2k DK/$7.9k FD||Atlanta Braves vs Ben Lively (PHI/RHP)||Draft Kings: Christian Bergman ($5800), Lance McCullers ($11200), JT Realmuto ($3700), Matt Adams ($3900), Dee Gordon ($4200), Nolan Arenado ($4800), Trevor Story ($3900), Danny Santana ($3100), Christian Yelich ($4300), Giancarlo Stanton ($4900)|
|Christian Bergman (SEA/RHP) vs Minnesota Twins: $5.8k DK/$7.5k FD||Colorado Rockies @ Jon Lester (CHC/LHP)||Fantasy Draft: Tyler Chatwood ($14400), Derek Holland ($13200), Matt Adams ($7800), Mark Reynolds ($7600), Robinson Cano ($9200), Danny Santana ($6000), George Springer ($10800), Giancarlo Stanton ($9600), Carlos Correa ($10800), Bryce Harper ($10500)|
|Chalk Pitchers: Edinson Volquez, Jake Odorizzi, Lance McCullers, Michael Pineda||Chalk Stacks: New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners|
Do you want to know more about my new pitching stat, SPOT? Check it out here.
Derek Holland (CWS/LHP): You kind of have to hold your breath a little bit and just click submit and run if you want to use Holland today. His last outing was so bad and it left a really bad taste in my mouth. That said, it was only one of a small handful of bad starts this year and it’s one that I hope will keep ownership away from Holland tonight. I love using LHP against the Rays. They have a .218 BA with a 31.8% K-rate against them on the season. That’s insanely bad and with Holland priced so low he only had to hit a fraction of what a guy like MuCullers needs to hit in order to be a good play. Holland isn’t quite a K per inning guy but against TB he just might be. At his price, you’d be happy with 6IP/6K/2ER, right? That’s very much in the ballpark tonight.
Tyler Chatwood (COL/RHP): If you’ve learned anything from reading this article this year it’s probably that I think that “Road” Tyler Chatwood is a thing (much the same as I think “Home” Chris Archer is a thing). The more he pitches on the road, the more I believe that “Road” Tyler Chatwood is someone I’m going to play no matter who he matchups up against. I obviously am not jumping for joy at the thought of pitching Chatwood at Wrigley but the Cubs are a hot and cold offense right now and I’m trusting the guy who has lowered his road ERA to 2.68; which is actually higher than is was last year so we know that he can actually get better. Nobody in their right mind is going to use Chatwood today so if he continues to pitch well on the road, you’re going to fly up your GPP standings. He’s a bit pricey for me on Fanduel but I love the idea of using him on Fantasy Draft with another mid-level pitcher to help me avoid the 60% McCullers ownership and load up on bats.
Christian Bergman (SEA/RHP): Bergman has looked outstanding in three of his last four starts (the one bad start was a 4IP/10ER/4HR shellacking by the Nationals). In those three starts he has given up only 2 ER in 20.1 IP with a 17:6 K to BB ratio. I don’t love his 19:22 ground ball to fly ball ratio but he only gave up 2 HR in those 22 fly balls and I can live with a 9% HR to fly ball rate. Minnesota is NOT Washington so I’m not really concerned that we are going to see a beat down like that Nationals game. I’m much more apt to trust the three good starts over the one bad one. Let’s also not forget that Bergman is priced so well (especially on DK and Fantasy Draft) that he doesn’t need to do much of anything to hit value. I love using him to help me get McCullers and a ton of big bats. I know I said I’d avoid McCullers when I was talking about Chatwood, but that’s just one way to use him. Even with 60% ownership I think he’s in play on an eight game slate with no other safe SP1 options.
Miami Marlins: The Lords of BvP are calling to me on this play. JT Realmuto has a .818 BA and 1.909 OPS, Christian Yelich has a .500 BA with 3 HR and a 1.731 OPS, Giancarlo Stanton has a .375 BA with 3 XBH and a 1.444 OPS, and Dee Gordon has a .385 BA with 3 SB against Gerrit Cole. I know that those four guys have a combined 46 AB against Cole but the numbers are so outstanding that it’s really hard to ignore them. Cole’s last three games have been horrendous (16 ER in 14.2 IP; a 9.81 ERA) so it’s not like these guys are going up against Clayton Kershaw. With the way this slate is structured, it won’t be hard at all to go full stack. There’s double digit run potential for Miami tonight.
Atlanta Braves: I’m a little torn on the Braves tonight. I love their matchup but I may be way off on the ownership here. They put up a ton of runs last night and Ben Lively is ripe for a beat down today. 3 walks and 0 strikeouts in 7 innings in his debut start is not something that’s going to play well in hitter-friendly Atlanta. I’m looking at Tyler Flowers, Matt Kemp, Adonis Garcia, and Matt Adams for my stack. Depending on how the lineup shakes out, Dansby Swanson and Ender Inciarte are very much in play as well (although the stiff price on Inciarte might scare me a way a little bit). A really sneaky play tonight, and I may end up using him to save some cap space, is Danny Santana. He’s been very good in his limited playing time (.320 BA and 7 XBH in 25 AB over his last ten games) and his price gives you a ton of roster flexibility. You know what? I think I’m locking Santana in today along with Adams. I love both of them.
Colorado Rockies: There’s this stigma that the Rockies can’t hit away from Coors. That’s hogwash. Colorado has the eighth best batting average and fifth most RBI on the road in MLB. I don’t care what other metric you’re looking at, those numbers play in DFS. I particularly like this matchup because Colorado has some very strong right-handed bats and Jon Lester is definitely beatable (COL is first in RBI, fourth in BA, and second in HR vs LHP). I love Mark Reynolds and Nolan Arenado tonight, and I’m not at all afraid to play Charlie Blackmon against an LHP. I’m not in love with any of the other options on the Rockies but the price tag on Trevor Story is pretty reasonable and DJ LeMahieu is always steady option at 2B (even if he does lack the upside of someone like Robinson Cano or Daniel Murphy).
Other names to consider:
Mitch Moreland (BOS/1B): The right field porch sure looks tempting at Yankee Stadium. Mitch Moreland’s left-handed bat against Michael Pineda also looks tempting. His $3.3k price tag DK is REALLY tempting. Let’s not forget that the BvP of .364 with 4 XBH in 11 AB is there as well. Yeah, I think I dig Moreland if I want save some cashola at 1B tonight. I’d probably rank Moreland as my #3 1B tonight in a GPP behind only Matt Adams and Mark Reynolds (and you can play Adams in the OF on DK)…tasty.
Evan Longoria (TB/3B): Longoria has hit Holland really well in his career with a .321 BA and 7 XBH in 28 AB.
David Price (BOS/LHP): The intelligent person in me tells me that playing David Price at Yankee Stadium against the lefty mashing Yankees is a really, really bad idea. The ideological person in me tells me that this will make him very low owned, which in turn makes him a rock solid GPP play. I mean, the guy did just come out and hold the Orioles to 1 run in 7 innings with 7 strikeouts. I can’t give Price my full seal of approval because of the matchup but if you’re looking to shoot the moon, I think he’s a guy who can give you the best numbers on the slate for about one-third the ownership (and a price discount) of Lance McCullers.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.