The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – June 9, 2017
June 8, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for June 9, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
***These plays are NOT ranked in order of preference***
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Alex Cobb (TB/RHP) vs Oakland Athletics: $7.2k DK/$7.9k FD||Detroit Tigers @ Brian Johnson (BOS/LHP)||Fanduel: Jordan Montgomery ($6700), Austin Barnes ($2000), Lucas Duda ($3000), Neil Walker ($3300), Jacob Lamb ($4200), Zack Cozart ($3800), Bryce Harper ($4500), JD Martinez ($4300), Melky Cabrera ($3200)|
|Jordan Montgomery (NYY/LHP) vs Baltimore Orioles: $7.6k DK/6.7k FD||New York Mets @ Julio Teheran (ATL/RHP)||Draft Kings: Randall Delgado ($5400), Jhoulys Chacin ($6400), John Hicks ($3100), Miguel Cabrera ($4500), Daniel Murphy ($4600), Miguel Sano ($5000), Zack Cozart ($5100), Justin Upton ($5200), JD Martinez ($5400), Bryce Harper ($5300)|
|Randall Delgado (ARI/RHP) vs Milwaukee Brewers: $5.4k DK/$6.6k FD||Los Angeles Dodgers vs Amir Garrett (CIN/LHP)||Fantasy Draft: Brad Peacock ($15300), Jhoulys Chacin ($12800), Jose Abreu ($6900), Jake Lamb ($10800), Miguel Sano ($9900), Melky Cabrera ($6000), JD Martinez ($10500), Bryce Harper ($10200), Corey Dickerson ($9300), Adam Duvall ($8000)|
|Jhoulys Chacin (SD/RHP) vs Kansas City Royals: $6.4k DK/$7.0k FD||Cincinnati Reds @ Rich Hill (LAD/LHP)|
|Joe Biagini (TOR/RHP) @ Seattle Mariners: $6.0k DK/$6.7k FD||Minnesota Twins @ Matt Moore (SF/LHP)|
|Chalk Pitchers: Corey Kluber, Brad Peacock, Michael Wacha, Eric Skoglund, Ervin Santana, Julio Teheran||Chalk Stacks: Washington Nationals, Miami Marlins, Cleveland Indians, Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, Houston Astros, Arizona Diamondbacks, Seattle Mariners|
Do you want to know more about my new pitching stat, SPOT? Check it out here.
There are a lot of under the radar type plays that I like for today. With multiple short slates (at least on DK) and the Arcade Mode/Mix Up Games I thought that today I’d throw you more than the usual three pitchers and bats. I’m nice like that. Best of luck!
Alex Cobb (TB/RHP): Cobb got rocked in his last start but prior to that he was pretty rock solid over his previous six outings. He’s not a huge upside guy but Oakland isn’t a huge offensive threat either. They only hit .233 against RHP and have a pretty high 27.6% K-rate. That means we could reasonably expect Cobb to hit a Quality Start with a strikeout per inning as a floor. For his price, I like that floor.
Jordan Montgomery (NYY/LHP): Montgomery is a K per inning type of guy and he’s only given up two HR over his last four starts. I like his price on DK, but I love his price (and upside) on FD. If the Orioles don’t have Manny Machado for this game, I love the matchup even more. Even with Machado in the lineup the O’s have a 27.6% K-rate against LHP. In two starts against Baltimore this year, Montgomery has an ERA just under 4.00 with 12 K’s and 0 HR allowed in 9.1 innings pitched. I would love to see him increase his inning load (maybe six good innings) but other than that, those numbers play very well on Fanduel.
Randall Delgado (ARI/RHP): Delgado is my DK version of Jordan Montgomery. The guy has struck out 12 batters over his last 11 innings (1.64 ERA as well) and now gets to go up against a Brewers offense that’s striking out over 27% of the time against RHP. I know that Chase Field is a horrible place for a pitcher to play but the dude is $5.4k. What do we really need out of him to make that work?? Give me 14 DK points and we are well within the ballpark of something I can live with. Anything on top of that is gravy. I think there’s some room for gravy here.
Jhoulys Chacin (SD/RHP): Much like I believe that “Road” Tyler Chatwood is a thing, I also believe that “Home” Jhoulys Chacin is a thing. The guy is lights out at Petco Park (1.36 ERA with only 2 HR allowed in 33 innings pitched). Kansas City is coming off one of its better runs of the season but that was at home against the Astros B-squad pitching staff. Look what happened when they got the Ace; 1 run scored. I will gladly pay down, especially on a late slate, to see if this “Home” thing is actually a thing today given the matchup.
Joe Biagini (TOR/RHP): I played Biagini once in DFS. He got crushed. Since then, he’s put up two great starts (13IP/3ER/13K/2BB with a 25:8 ground ball to fly ball ratio). Those numbers are out of sight for a guy priced $2k higher than he is. Seattle is a really scary matchup but we’ve seen Biagini face them once already this year and he held his own with 5IP/3K/0BB/0ER. He’s improved quite a bit since that start, so it wouldn’t shock me to see him eclipse that tonight (maybe with a few more runs but more K’s to compensate).
Detroit Tigers: I don’t know how chalky Brian Johnson will be today but I do know that he’s going to be more widely owned than he should be given the start he’s had to his 2017 season (14IP/14K/4ER). Detroit blasts LHP and they’re only getting better now that JD Martinez’s stats are starting to really take off. Other than Martinez, Upton and Miggy are a must and I kind of like Nick Castellanos as a sneaky play at 3B today. Another guy to keep an eye on is John Hicks behind the plate. He’s got a little bit of pop, has a .313 BA on the season, and has the platoon advantage over Johnson. The Tigers are pricey but there are enough cheap arms that you can use to help offset that cost.
New York Mets: Back in the day (last year), Julio Teheran was a must play against the Mets (especially at home). This year, not so much. Teheran has faced the Mets four times this season and has a 3.93 ERA in only 18.1 innings pitched against that. That’s not even 5 innings per start! On top of that, he’s walked nearly as many Mets as he’s struck out (10 BB to 15 K) and he’s terrible at home (8.40 ERA with 9 HR allowed). I like the Mets to put a hurting on Teheran today. I’m going to be using Lucas Duda, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, and Neil Walker for my stack. My sneaky Met, as always, is Asdrubal Cabrera.
Minnesota Twins: Matt Moore, despite my constant efforts to try to prove otherwise, is pretty gross as a pitcher. He walks too many batters, he gives up too many home runs, and he’s getting BABIP’d to death (not his fault, but with his K-rate down to well under a K per inning, it kind of is). The Twins have enough power from the right hand side of the plate to make them an intriguing option tonight. Obviously I want to use Miguel Sano and Brian Dozier because they’ve got the most pop of any player in the Twins lineup. I’m probably also going to take a long look at Byron Buxton (still struggling, but less so these days). My final player will probably be Robbie Grossman, but I’m hoping Kennys Vargas will be in the lineup so I can use him as well/instead.
***HuLo Game Stack Alert***
Los Angeles Dodgers: Is anyone buying Amir Garrett at this point (21 ER over his last 11.2 IP)? On most slates this matchup would make the Dodgers really chalky but there are so many other options that I can’t see anyone being more than 10% owned. I’m really hoping to see Austin Barnes in the lineup at catcher tonight. He’s not a major player or anything but when he gets his chances, he produces. I feel similarly about Chris Taylor. The guy is a sparkplug and rarely disappoints when I use him in DFS. A lefty is on the mound so Kike Hernandez is a lock if I’m using Dodgers and I’ll probably round out my stack with Yasiel Puig or go for some lefty on lefty violence with Corey Seager. If Franklin Gutierrez gets the start, I’d probably rather use him than either of the last two guys, despite his poor play this year. Gutierrez historically crushes LHP (just look at his splits from last year – .280 BA, 12 HR, .884 OPS vs LHP).
Cincinnati Reds: Rich Hill perplexes me. Nothing about his last three years makes any sense at all, and now he’s adding in a season of wildly inconsistent starts. It’d a lot of fun to follow if I didn’t have to make decisions based on all this. I think that this Reds teams is fully capable of taking advantage of the mistakes that Hill is making this year (too many walks, not enough strikeouts, a lot of fly balls). Guys like Adam Duvall, Zack Cozart, and Eugenio Suarez should be knocking in Billy Hamilton all day long. I even like Joey Votto, who I never shy away from with the lefty on lefty matchup.
Other names to consider:
Jose Abreu/Melky Cabrera (CWS/1B/OF): The duo has combined to hit .353 with 10 XBH in 65 AB against Corey Kluber. The Klubot will be the chalkiest pitcher on today’s slate, so you’ve got a ton of double whammy upside with these two plays.
Zach Davies (MIL/RHP): After giving up 10 HR over his first eleven starts, Davies has given up zero over his last two starts. A lot of that should be attributed to his improving ground ball to fly ball ratio (3:1 over his last three outings). If he can keep the ball on the ground in Arizona, he’s got a fighting chance.
Matt Carpenter (STL/1B): Carpenter is heating up real fast. He’s got a homer in back to back games and I think his season is about to turn around. He’s got a great matchup today against Jeremy Hellickson (2.1 HR/9 over his last ten starts) and he’s cheap compared to his fellow first basemen.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.