The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – May 18, 2017
May 17, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for May 18, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) so a lot of the time when you’re looking at my chalk list, that will take into account who might be chalk on those types of slates as well.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
On a day like today where there are two pretty short slates, and when the main sites can’t find common ground on what games belong on each slate, I change formats up a little bit. Instead of going with the big list and some stacks and pitchers, I’m going to base today’s article off sample lineups and give you some musings for each of the slates. We will get back to the normal format on Friday.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
Do you want to know more about my new pitching stat, SPOT? Check it out here.
Early Slate Musings:
I get the feeling that we are going to see a lot of Cubs and Nationals on this early slate so I kind of want to avoid that. It’s not that I don’t believe in those teams, although I do really like Amir Garrett against the Cubs, it’s just that I like to win the ownership game a little bit on short slates. That’s not to say that I won’t have some exposure to the Nationals against Glasnow but I really want to try to find some under the radar plays to offset some of that ownership. If you’ve read anything by me lately then you know that I’m going to be all aboard the Phillies train. I know they disappointed (as of this writing) in Wednesday but they should be able to rebound nicely against Martin Perez (TEX/LHP). Philly is strong from the right side of the plate and it’s not like Perez is Clayton Kershaw. He can be hit, and hit hard. Jon Lester is kind of due for a beat down as well. He’s been walking way too many batters, yet not having to pay for that. Cincy has enough power that if Lester is putting guys on, he will pay. Let’s also not forget that Lester doesn’t really like to hold runners on base so if Billy Hamilton or Jose Peraza get on base they are going to run. Another potential sleeper team that I like is the Detroit Tigers. Dylan Bundy has put up really good fantasy numbers but he’s giving up way too many fly balls, and against a team finding its stroke like Detroit, that could mean a really bad day for him. Using Detroit gives you double whammy potential with Bundy most likely one of the more widely owned pitchers on the slate. I think Bundy, Lester, and Ervin Santana are going to be the chalk at pitcher. I’m avoiding all of them and instead looking at the aforementioned Amir Garrett and German Marquez. Due to my pitching decisions, I have no problem at all leaving a ton of money on the table for this slate (especially over on DK).
Fanduel (early): Amir Garrett ($7300), Victor Martinez ($3300), Tommy Joseph ($3400), Ian Kinsler ($3600), Maikel Franco ($3200), JJ Hardy ($2300), Billy Hamilton ($3700), Aaron Altherr ($4000), JD Martinez ($3800)
DraftKings (early): Amir Garrett ($7000), German Marquez ($5000), Cameron Rupp ($3500), Tommy Joseph ($3800), Ian Kinsler ($3900), Eugenio Suarez ($3600), Zack Cozart ($3700), Aaron Altherr ($4200), JD Martinez ($4500), Billy Hamilton ($4200)
Late Slate Musings:
I thought the early slate was gross but, wow, this slate has that beat for ugliness. You’re either going heavy chalk or you’re taking a ton of chances. At least on the early slate you have a chance to produce with some low ownership from guys like Marquez and stacks like DET/PHI. That doesn’t seem to exist on this slate. I’m not sure exactly who is the chalk on this slate for pitcher but outside of Teheran/Stroman (I lean towards Teheran as the chalk at home), who is there that we can feel ok about? Danny Duffy has the most upside but his velocity is down and he’s facing a righty heavy Yankees squad that is crushing everyone. I suppose his strikeout upside puts him in play with a potentially lower ownership. I don’t trust Jordan Montgomery, and I actually think he’s going to be the SP2 du jour with Teheran or Stroman. That’s more an indictment on the KC bats than it is a show of confidence in Montgomery. I think I’m going to look at three pitchers on this slate and hope the ownership is reasonable on them. Those guys are Marcus Stroman, Edinson Volquez, and Hector Velazquez. If Teheran is the pitcher people lean to in the ATL/TOR game we could see 20% or so ownership, which would be nice since he’s the safest pitcher on the slate in my opinion. Volquez has been not terrible his last three starts (16IP/16K/7ER and a 2:1 ground ball to fly ball ratio). The Dodgers can be a little scary but I’m looking for some double whammy potential since I think they are going to be one of the more widely owned teams on this slate. Even if we only get 5IP/5K/2ER we still have a shot at a win with how badly Ryu is pitching for LA. With Velazquez, he’s a kid who is going to cost you nothing and comes with at least some minor league pedigree (low ERA/WHIP). I love me some Oakland but I think people are going to be on them with this kid coming up so I’m going to try to zig while they zag. As for the bats, I’m going to focus my attention on the Marlins (Ryu is getting knocked around a bit lately), Blue Jays (Smoak and Travis are really hot right now), and a White Sox/Mariners game stack (leaning heavier on the Seattle side of things). The CWS/SEA game may end up a bit chalky with two bad pitchers going but we may get some reprieve with NYY/OAK/BOS/LAD being so appealing on this slate. On a five game slate I ride with a go big or go home mentality and that means taking some chances and trying to hit it big on some underowned plays.
Fanduel (late): Hector Velazquez ($6400), Yasmani Grandal ($3000), Jose Abreu ($3900), Devon Travis ($2700), Kyle Seager ($3600), Jean Segura ($4100), Nelson Cruz ($4300), Marcell Ozuna ($3900), Giancarlo Stanton ($3800)
DraftKings (late): Marcus Stroman ($11300), Hector Velazquez ($6400), Salvador Perez ($3700), Justin Smoak ($3900), Devon Travis ($3800), Kyle Seager ($4200), Tyler Saladino ($3200), Nelson Cruz ($5000), Marcell Ozuna ($4000), Giancarlo Stanton ($4400)
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.