The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – May 19, 2017
May 18, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for May 19, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
***These plays are NOT ranked in order of preference***
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Luis Severino (NYY/RHP) @ Tampa Bay Rays: $8.8k DK/$9.2k FD||San Francisco Giants @ Michael Wacha (STL/RHP)||Fanduel: Alex Wood ($8900), Victor Martinez ($3100), Jose Abreu ($3800), Chris Taylor ($2900), Todd Frazier ($3100), Jean Segura ($4000), Jayson Werth ($3500), Denard Span ($3000), Yasiel Puig ($2700)|
|Nathan Karns (KC/RHP) @ Minnesota Twins: $8.0k DK/$8.2k FD||Chicago White Sox @ Ariel Miranda (SEA/LHP)||Draft Kings: Luis Severino ($8800), Nate Karns ($8000), Buster Posey ($4200), Chris Davis ($4600), Starlin Castro ($4300), Justin Turner ($3700), Adam Rosales ($2100), Jayson Werth ($3800), Bryce Harper ($5600), JD Martinez ($4700)|
|Chris Tillman (BAL/RHP) vs Toronto Blue Jays: $8.3k DK/$8.2k FD||Los Angeles Dodgers vs Justin Nicolino (MIA/LHP)||Fantasy Draft: Chris Sale ($25200), Alex Wood ($18000), Brandon Belt ($7200), Mitch Moreland ($6400), Victor Martinez ($7200), Chris Davis ($8800), Franklin Gutierrez ($6900), Denard Span ($6800), Leury Garcia ($5100), Nelson Cruz ($8100)|
|Chalk Pitchers: Jacob DeGrom, Chris Sale, Alex Wood, Taijuan Walker||Chalk Stacks: Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers, Colorado Rockies, New York Yankees, Houston Astros, Arizona Diamondbacks, Washington Nationals|
Do you want to know more about my new pitching stat, SPOT? Check it out here.
Luis Severino (NYY/RHP): I’m expecting that if people want to spend up at pitcher that they are look towards DeGrom, Wood, or Sale instead of Severino tonight. The young Yankees fire baller has struggled in two of his last three starts. I’m going to ignore those games and instead focus on the big boy strikeout numbers that Severino has put up all season. The kid can bring the heat and there are few better matchups for a pitcher like this than against Tampa Bay. The Rays have a 29.6% K-rate against RHP this season (that’s really high) and have already had a game where they struck out 11 times against Severino. I will rarely predict a double digit strikeout game for anyone but it is worth noting that the Yankees are letting Severino go a little deeper into games (100+ pitches in all but two starts this year) so the volume could be there for exactly that kind of game. I actually like this matchup for Severino even more because it’s on the road; I’d much rather have a guy pitching in The Trop rather than Yankee Stadium.
Nathan Karns (KC/RHP): Speaking of high strikeout pitcher, Karns has transformed himself into this year’s Matt Shoemaker/Robbie Ray (a high K guy that came out of nowhere). Minnesota isn’t the most vulnerable team when it comes to the strikeout but Karns has racked up 29 K’s in 17.1 innings over his last three starts (a ridiculous 15.1 K/9). Even with regression, there is still room for a 6IP/7K type of game. Karns has a relatively low SPOT factor as he’s only walked three guys over this dominant three game stretch and his ground ball to fly ball ratio is reasonable considering his strikeout upside (8:7). Even when he gave up 2 HR in his last outing, he still crushed his value (and would have been better if he didn’t have a garbage bullpen that blew his win). I’m going to keep riding Karns until he crashes. In his case, I’d rather use him for one too many starts than one too few. That’s one of the great safety nets that DFS provides; a bad day is literally that, just one bad day. Ride this!
Chris Tillman (BAL/RHP): Toronto has been one of the best offenses in baseball over the last two weeks. As a matter of fact, they have been almost too good. For the “talent” they have on the field, they are playing so far over their heads. Just look at Thursday night. They put up 9 runs with Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, Justin Smoak, and Devon Travis out of the lineup. That’s an anomaly, not a reality. They haven’t had a day off since May 4 and they just traveled from Atlanta to Baltimore tonight. This is a perfect spot to pick on them, especially with this being Chris Tillman’s third start since his return from the DL. Tillman has been dominant in the past, and while we’ve yet to see that guy this year, you have to remember that his first couple of starts have essentially been Spring Training for him. Baltimore is letting him go out there and throw a ton of pitches (an average of 99 pitches in his two starts), so we know that if he gets it going tonight, they are not going to yank him early to preserve him. This is a way off the radar play but if it hit, it’s going to shoot you up a GPP leaderboard.
San Francisco Giants: They haven’t produced at the level I’d like, but I really like the lineup that San Francisco sends out each night. Denard Span is a great top of the order guy and he gives guys like Buster Posey and Brandon Belt a steady streak of RBI opportunities. Span has been a sparkplug for SF recently with 12 runs and a .293 BA over his last ten games. What’s funny is that none of those runs were caused by Brandon Belt, despite Belt hitting 4 HR over his last ten games (all solo shots). Eventually that’s going to even out and Belt is going to jack one out when Span is on base. Posey has been similar to Belt over his last ten games in that he’s hit a ton of HR (five total) but only has 6 RBI to show for it (and a .400 BA over those ten games). This lineup is so close to putting it all together. Nobody else has been standing out for SF but they’ve got a ton of talent in Joe Panik, Brandon Crawford, and Christian Arroyo. Whoever finds their way towards the top of this order is the one that I want to add to the big three.
Chicago White Sox: Through smoke and mirrors, the White Sox continue to be a top three team when it comes to batting average against LHP. They haven’t put it together in the power department (only 25 XBH in 331 AB vs LHP) but they are still scoring enough to be a worthwhile look tonight. Ariel Miranda has been up and down all season but he gives up a lot of fly balls, which has led to him allowing 8 HR on the season. He doesn’t walk a ton of batters, thus lowering his SPOT factor, but if the Sox are patient they should be able to wait him out. It’d be really nice to see Avisail Garcia and Todd Frazier turn things around and start hitting like they are capable of doing because they are a huge piece of the upside that this stack provides. Jose Abreu is a most, obviously, and I’m probably going to skip around in this lineup a bit and include Leury Garcia (.366 BA over his last ten games) at a huge discount. Sometimes we have to bounce around a lineup to balance our upside and recent hot play. When will Yoan Moncada come up and make this easier?
Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers are like the rich man’s version of what I wish the Oakland A’s were; a team that plays the platoon splits really well. This team has a readymade stack against both LHP and RHP. Today we get a RHP so it’s time to look at guys like Justin Turner, Yasiel Puig, Kike Hernandez, and Chris Taylor. None of these guys are sure things but they do hit lefties pretty well. Franklin Gutierrez is another interesting name if he gets in the lineup and hits in a good spot (.375 BA over his last 16 AB). He was a great matchup play in Seattle and continues to bring that upside now that he’s in LA.
Other names to consider:
Chris Davis (BAL/1B): Crush hasn’t been himself this year but today could very well be the day that he turns his season around (or at least one where he looks like the guy from the past few seasons). Davis has hammered Aaron Sanchez for 4 HR (6 total XBH) in only 18 career AB against him (.444 BA). If there was ever a time to jump away from a stack and throw a random player into your lineup, this is one of them.
Jayson Werth (WSH/OF): I tried to use this play the last time the Nationals played R.A. Dickey but then Jayson Werth wasn’t in the lineup. Well, if at first you don’t succeed, etc. and so forth. I’m a believer of the philosophy that either you can hit a knuckleball or you can’t. Werth definitely can. He owns a career .481 BA with 5 XBH in 27 AB against Dickey. If you’re looking for a slightly less chalky play, Ryan Zimmerman has similar numbers in his career against Dickey.
Adam Rosales (OAK/SS): The Lords of BvP are smiling down on this play right here. Rosales is about the most no name player I can recall that totally owns a big name pitcher. In 17 career at bats, Rosales has brutalized Chris Sale for a .412 BA with 3 HR. That’s insane! If I’m punting SS, and I don’t see why I wouldn’t today, you know I’m going to jump all over this play to get some serious double whammy potential (a HuLo play smacking down a chalk play). I love double whammies.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.