The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – September 1, 2017
August 31, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for September 1, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
***Just wanted to throw it out there that I’m going to try to change the format up a little bit for the Longball for the time being. In theory, it will combine my favorite parts of the two formats I’ve used this year: a HuLo chart and then musings on how I construct my sample lineups. The lineups are still not optimal lineups, so don’t mistake them for that, but I think it’s important that you get a closer look into how we can use these HuLo plays to construct the lineups. So instead of spouting off stats that you can easily look up (and don’t worry, I won’t totally avoid stats) I’ll spend my time talking about how to best attack the slate using the HuLo picks. Any feedback is more than welcome.***
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Jimmy Nelson (MIL/RHP) vs Washington Nationals: $8.4k DK/$8.5k FD||San Diego Padres vs Clayton Kershaw (LAD/LHP)||Fanduel: Luis Castillo ($8100), Austin Hedges ($1800), Paul Goldschmidt ($5400), Yangervis Solarte ($1700), Mike Moustakas ($3100), Didi Gregorius ($3100), JD Martinez ($5000), AJ Pollock ($4600), Jose Pirela ($2200)|
|Kevin Gausman (BAL/RHP) vs Toronto Blue Jays: $8.7k DK/$8.7k FD||St Louis Cardinals @ Chris Stratton (SF/RHP)||Draft Kings : Jimmy Nelson ($8400), Dinelson Lamet ($7600), Chris Gimenez ($2700), Lucas Duda ($3900), Brian Dozier ($5100), Jose Ramirez ($4700), Francisco Lindor ($5100), Jay Bruce ($4500), Bradley Zimmer ($3600), Eddie Rosario ($4300)|
|Dinelson Lamet (SD/RHP ) vs Los Angeles Dodgers: $7.6k DK/$7.6k FD||Tampa Bay Rays @ Reynaldo Lopez (CWS/RHP)||Fantasy Draft: Dinelson Lamet ($15200), Jack Flaherty ($13200), Nolan Arenado ($9900), Jose Pirela ($6600), Paul Goldschmidt ($10800), Jabari Blash ($6300), Charlie Blackmon ($10800), JD Martinez ($10000), Jose Abreu ($8000), AJ Pollock ($9200)|
|Jack Flaherty (STL/RHP) @ San Francisco Giants: $6.7k DK/$5.8k FD||Minnesota Twins vs Jason Hammel (KC/RHP)|
|Chalk Pitchers: Clayton Kershaw, Gerrit Cole, Cole Hamels, Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo||Chalk Stacks: New York Yankees, Colorado Rockies, Arizona Diamondbacks, Cleveland Indians, Baltimore Orioles|
Fanduel is doing that thing that Fanduel does when Clayton Kershaw starts; dropping the price of his opposing batters to a ridiculously low level. Today’s situation is a little different because Dave Roberts has already come out and said that Kershaw is on a strict five inning or 75 pitch limit. That means, at the very worst, we are getting four innings of some reliever against these Padres bats. I don’t care much for San Diego but using a Padres stack allows you to go ahead and use a Coors stack and a halfway decent pitcher. As you see in my lineup, I chose to go with three bit D’back bats against the lefty Kyle Freeland. I’d have loved to go with four bats from Arizona but it didn’t make a ton of financial sense given that no other bats on that team are worth paying up for. Instead I decided to mix and match other big bats in good spots. I don’t really think that the Royals are an offense to target but Mike Moustakas is a beast and he’s very well priced against Dillon Gee. If he goes yard, not an unreasonable proposition, then he’s going to give a good return on his value. The same can be said for Didi Gregorius against Doug Fister, who is terrible. Gregorius is always producing and at $3.1k you could do a whole lot worse at SS. I’m very excited to roll out Luis Castillo as my pitcher because of his immense strikeout upside. I was a little shocked to see him priced so low, relative to his peers, and jumped on him as soon as I scrolled past Jimmy Nelson. I could have used Dinelson Lamet in this spot but I think that Castillo has a better matchup and a little better shot at a QS/win combination. He’s already faced the Pirates once this year and he produced a line of 7IP/9K/1ER. I won’t expect that level of production today but 6IP/7K/2ER is very reasonable. Add in a QB (even without a win), and you’re looking at a return of just over 4.5x on his price. Sign me up for that with a Coors stack every day of the week.
DK doesn’t give you nearly the discount on the Padres that FD does so I’m completely off them there. They would need to score a decent number of runs to pay off their prices and I’m not taking that chance. Instead, I decided to focus on an Indians stack and build around that. I love taking the chance to stack against Buck Farmer and this is a perfect spot for that. He’s been terrible in his limited innings at home (over 10.00 ERA) and the Indians have as much upside as any team outside of those at Coors. I love that I can stack their major lefties (Ramirez, Lindor, Bruce, and Zimmer) while still being able to find space for a little Twins stack (Dozier, Rosario, and Gimenez). The Twins are a little sneaky today against Jason Hammel, a player who they have crushed so far in 2017 (13.2IP/14ER in three starts). Even with two of my favorite, and not terribly cheap, stacks on this team I was still able to get two pitchers that I really liked today. Jimmy Nelson, despite struggling a bit the last couple of weeks, still have immense strikeout upside. He’s faced the Nats once already this year and was dominant (7IP/10K/2ER). A similar result is not out of the question, as Nelson pitches better at home and Washington isn’t a dominant offense. I’ve paired Nelson with Dinelson Lamet in the hopes that SD can put a little heat on the Kershaw before he hits his innings limit. I’m not too worried about Lamet getting his numbers, he’s been a pretty safe K per inning guy all season, so I feel like I have a nice floor with a really high ceiling. I don’t see anyone using Lamet as their pitcher with Kershaw as his opposition so you’ve got a really nice ownership value built in here as well. Lamet is nearly a run and a half better per game at home and he almost never gives up homers at Petco. If he can continue to keep his walk rate at a reasonable level (he’s around 4.5 K:BB at home) then he shouldn’t be the victim of a big inning. I really like the idea of using him counteract the Kershaw ownership tonight.
As is usually the case, I got a little wonky with this lineup. I saw this as the perfect time to take a shot on cheap pitching/Padres stack combination in order to get as many Coors bats as I could fit into my lineup. I would have liked to have gotten more than five bats from Coors but the five I got are the five best in the game. If that game blows up, then I’m in really good shape. I also included Jose Abreu, who should return to the lineup today, in a very good matchup against Blake Snell. I love Abreu against LHP. The real key to this team could be Jack Flaherty at pitcher. I don’t know much about the kid, making his ML debut, other than what I’ve read on the DFS bio blurb. What I see is that he’s about a K per inning guy and that he has a decent amount of control. At his price, that might be all that we need against a very weak San Francisco lineup. Normally I’d prefer to take a rookie at home but AT&T (Pac Bell? Something else?) Park plays so well for pitchers that I actually can see that being an advantage for Flaherty tonight. I’m excited to see how this combination of stars and scrubs comes together when all is said and done.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.