The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – September 21, 2017
September 20, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for September 21, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
***Just wanted to throw it out there that I’m going to try to change the format up a little bit for the Longball for the time being. In theory, it will combine my favorite parts of the two formats I’ve used this year: a HuLo chart and then musings on how I construct my sample lineups. The lineups are still not optimal lineups, so don’t mistake them for that, but I think it’s important that you get a closer look into how we can use these HuLo plays to construct the lineups. So instead of spouting off stats that you can easily look up (and don’t worry, I won’t totally avoid stats) I’ll spend my time talking about how to best attack the slate using the HuLo picks. Any feedback is more than welcome.***
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Zach Davies (MIL/RHP) vs Chicago Cubs: $7.7k DK/$8.1k FD||San Diego Padres vs Tyler Anderson (COL/LHP)||Fanduel: Zach Davies ($8100), Russell Martin ($2500), Justin Smoak ($3200), Jose Altuve ($4100), Josh Donaldson ($4100), Carlos Correa ($3400), Josh Reddick ($3600), George Springer ($3700), Corey Dickerson ($2300)|
|James Paxton (SEA/LHP) vs Texas Rangers: $7.4k DK/$8.4k FD||Detroit Tigers vs Adelberto Mejia (MIN/LHP)||Draft Kings : JA Happ ($7800), James Paxton ($7400), Mike Zunino ($3500), Wil Myers ($3700), Brian Dozier ($5200), Eduardo Escobar ($4900), Jorge Polanco ($4000), Byron Buxton ($4900), Eddie Rosario ($4800), Mitch Haniger ($3800)|
|JA Happ (TOR/LHP) vs Kansas City Royals: $7.8k DK/$7.6k FD||Toronto Blue Jays vs Jason Vargas (KC/LHP)||Fantasy Draft: Carlos Martinez ($22400), Dallas Keuchel ($21900), Wil Myers ($7200), Yangervis Solarte ($6900), Chris Davis ($6600), Hunter Renfroe ($5200), Manuel Margo ($7200), Adam Jones ($8400), Mark Trumbo ($7200), Mike Zunino ($6900)|
|Chalk Pitchers: Dallas Keuchel, Tyler Anderson, Carlos Martinez, Jake Arrieta, Tanner Roark||Chalk Stacks: Colorado Rockies, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins, Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles|
I am borderline giddy that I was able to put this lineup together today, and that’s saying a lot because I gave up on getting giddy about baseball lineups right around the time NFL Training Camps opened (have I mentioned that MLB is as grind?). When I first started looking at this slate I quickly fell in love with the Astros. They are monster favorites (-330) and that can’t just be because Dallas Keuchel is on the mound (let’s not forget that CWS hits lefties pretty well). If that’s the case, then Vegas must think that the offense is going to mash Carson Fulmer. This was kind of surprising because he’s been really good his last two starts with a 1.50 ERA and 14 strikeouts in 12 innings pitched. Of course, those starts came against the Giants and Tigers; neither of whom present a murder’s row of bats. Houston kind of does. I know that some players may be rested but as of right now I’m looking at going big on the ‘Stros until their lineup comes out. I want all the big boys (minus Bregman, more on why in a second) and was very happy to pay up for them. The reason I didn’t want Bregman is because he’s a 3B and there’s no way I’m passing on Josh Donaldson against a lefty. The dude has 5 HR and a 1.271 OPS over his last ten games; he’s mashing. His price is a very reasonable $4.1k, a number that allowed me to use a TOR mini stack with Russell Martin and Justin Smoak (or Kendrys Morales if you know how to predict which TOR 1B is the one that will go off; when in doubt go Smoak). My final roster spot only had $2.3k left over and it was a little shocking to see Corey Dickerson priced that low. I know he’s been awful recently but he’s still got a great deal of power and it’s not like Jeremy Hellickson puts fear in anyone. I’ll gladly take a near-min priced shot on a guy like Dickerson over what else is out there. The reason I only had $2.3k left was because I spent $8.1k on my pitcher. I really like Zach Davies today and I think he’s going to be underappreciated with Jake Arrieta opposing him. Davies has been one of the best pitchers in the NL during the second half of the season and he was really good the last time he faced the Cubbies (7IP/6K/1ER). That’s a whopping 46 FD points; a score I’d be happy with even if he only hit 75% of that today.
Today must be my lucky day because I just found another lineup that I loved today. I’m all in on the Twins. Their offense is outstanding and I have no issue paying up for them against Jordan Zimmermann, The Human Home Run Machine. I don’t even have all that much to say about them, the Twins are just awesome and what they’re doing this year is completely unexpected and fun to ride. They’ve rarely let me down when I’ve stacked them so I’m back on that ship once again. With the Twins being so pricey, I had to look for some value at pitcher and that wasn’t hard at all with Happ and Paxton both in the mid-$7k range. Neither is a lock to perform but both can get to double digit K’s in the right situation. The Royals are going to be a popular play after scoring 13 runs on Wednesday but they’re just not that great of an offense. Happ has faced them once this year and only gave up 1 run in 6.1 innings while striking out 5 batters. That was enough for 20.6 DK points, a greater than 2.5x return on today’s price. I’m all for that kind of performance against today, especially in a potential double whammy situation. James Paxton is in a similar position tonight as he looked awful in his return start last week (1.1IP/3ER/0K) but prior to his DL stint he was outstanding. His 10.3 K/9 for the season tells me that he’s got the upside to crush today’s price. Let’s also not forget that the Rangers have struggled against LHP all year so this is a great bounce back start for Paxton. Rounding out my lineup is a little bit of value with a Mariners mini-stack (Haniger is red hot and Zunino is a double dong candidate when he’s swinging the bat well, which he is now) and Wil Myers against Tyler Anderson (more on the Padres in a bit). I really like this lineup and I’m excited to use it because it has the potential to really pop for a big score (not that my other lineups don’t but there’s something about this team that does it for me).
With the season winding down I’d be remiss if I didn’t take the opportunity to get wacky with my Fantasy Draft as many times as I could. For today, I feel even better with this team because I was actually looking stack the Padres today. Tyler Anderson is a man crush of mine but he’s just not all that great on the road. He’s a total anomaly in that he actually pitches better at Coors, so if that’s the case then why not stack against him in Petco? This is a really good shot for you to hit up a double whammy as I think a lot of people are going to be on Anderson today at his cheap price. Clearly we are taking a chance with the glorified Triple A lineup but at least we are backing it up with the two best pitchers on the board. We already talked about how big of a favorite Keuchel is and CMart, while not quite as big of a favorite, is still -150 which is pretty big. He’s not been great against the Reds this year, so there is a little bit of a risk in using CMart, but his upside is 7IP/12K and you can’t say that about too many other pitchers on this slate. When I was done plugging in the Padres and my pitchers, I was shocked to see that I could get away with firing up three Orioles on this team as well. Matt Andriese is struggling and Baltimore can put a hurt on anyone. I would have liked to have gone a little deeper with this stack but I didn’t want to pull off from my pitchers to get a fourth bat in there. What I was able to do was get Mike Zunino in there and he’s a double dong game waiting to happen, especially against LHP. Let’s not fool ourselves into thinking this is 2012 Cole Hamels he’s facing. This is 2017 Cole Hamels and he’s extremely vulnerable. Zunino could be the key to this lineup if Hamels grooves one in on him.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.