The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – September 23, 2017
September 23, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for September 23, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
***Just wanted to throw it out there that I’m going to try to change the format up a little bit for the Longball for the time being. In theory, it will combine my favorite parts of the two formats I’ve used this year: a HuLo chart and then musings on how I construct my sample lineups. The lineups are still not optimal lineups, so don’t mistake them for that, but I think it’s important that you get a closer look into how we can use these HuLo plays to construct the lineups. So instead of spouting off stats that you can easily look up (and don’t worry, I won’t totally avoid stats) I’ll spend my time talking about how to best attack the slate using the HuLo picks. Any feedback is more than welcome.***
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Sean Manaea (OAK/LHP) vs Texas Rangers: $6.3k DK/$6.6k FD||Philadelphia Phillies @ Julio Teheran (ATL/RHP)||Fanduel: Hyun-Jin Ryu ($8200), Jorge Alfaro ($2800), Jose Abreu ($3700), Yoan Moncada ($3700), Matt Davidson ($2200, Tim Anderson ($3900), Odubel Herrera ($3300), Nick Williams ($3300), Christian Yelich ($3800)|
|Jhoulys Chacin (SD/RHP) vs Colorado Rockies: $5.9k DK/$5.8k FD||Miami Marlins @ Taijuan Walker (ARI/RHP)||Draft Kings : Jhoulys Chacin ($5900), Hyun-Jin Ryu ($9100), Kevan Smith ($2500), Rhys Hoskins ($5200), Jed Lowrie ($3700), Freddie Freeman ($5500), Marcus Semien ($4300), Matt Olson ($5300), Matt Joyce ($3600), Aaron Altherr ($4500)|
|Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD/LHP) vs San Francisco Giants: $9.1k DK/$8.2k FD||Chicago White Sox vs Danny Duffy (KC/LHP)||Fantasy Draft: Lance Lynn ($14000), Hyun-Jin Ryu ($17600), Justin Bour ($8700), Marcus Semien ($8400), Chad Pinder ($7500), Giancarlo Stanton ($10800), Marcell Ozuna ($8100), Christian Yelich ($7200), Jed Lowrie ($7200), Matt Olson ($10400)|
|Chalk Pitchers: Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner, Gerrit Cole, Chad Bettis, Lance Lynn||Chalk Stacks: Arizona Diamondbacks, Oakland A’s, Tampa Bay Rays, Kansas City Royals|
Rich Hill came through against the Giants on Friday night and I expect much of the same from Ryu tonight. He’s been incredible over his last ten starts with a 2.44 ERA and nearly a K per inning. That doesn’t sound totally world beating but let’s not forget how bad the Dodgers have been over the last three weeks. For Ryu to be this good despite all of that is truly outstanding. He backs up those ten game numbers with a sterling line against SF this year (13IP/10K/1ER). Again, the K’s are down a bit but if he’s not giving up runs I can live with that. I can definitely see him pulling off a 4x return on your investment (33 FD points; think 6IP/6K/2ER with a QS for good measure), and I’d say that’s probably his floor not his ceiling. Ryu isn’t the most expensive pitcher on the market today but he’s far from a value play either. Because of this I couldn’t go with some of my bigger stacks, but instead looked to the White Sox to give me some value. Surprise, surprise, the White Sox weren’t nearly as inexpensive as I’d hope they would be. Regardless, I forged ahead because I believe in the matchup. Danny Duffy can be a really good pitcher but he’s a lefty and I love the Sox against lefties. Their infield has been playing pretty well lately so I went around the horn with Abreu, Moncada, Davidson, and Anderson. Davidson is a great get at only $2.2k if he’s in the lineup. If he’s not then I’ll switch to Kevan Smith at catcher and make a different move at 3B. I wasn’t sure what I wanted to do with the rest of my lineup but saw I go use a Phillies mini-stack pretty comfortably so that’s where my attention turned. Julio Teheran is god awful at home (over 6.00 ERA) and you know I’ll load up on Phills any time I can. I wasn’t able to use Rhys Hoskins or Aaron Altherr but Herrera, Williams, and Alfaro are a nice trio against an RHP. For my last spot I went with Christian Yelich hitting out in the desert against a potentially overmatched Taijuan Walker.
Things didn’t work out quite as well as I’d hoped with my Phillies/A’s stack last night but that won’t stop me from boing back to the well again tonight. This time I’m going to stack heavily with the A’s (Lowrie, Semien, Olson, and Joyce) while just doing a mini-stack with my Phillies (Hoskins/Altherr). I figure that if I’m going back to these teams I better darn well use their best bats. Miguel Gonzalez looked ok in his last start but he really wasn’t all that great. Sure, he only gave up 1 ER in 5 IP but he also walked 5 batters and had a ground ball to fly ball ratio of 4:6. If you put runners on and allow the ball to get in the air, then the A’s are going to pound you. I expect a pounding tonight. I know I’ve already said this once but it bears repeating, Julio Teheran is awful at home. He’s got a 6.23 ERA with 17 HR allowed in 86.2 IP. Compare that to his road numbers (2.84 ERA with 13 HR allowed in the same number of innings) and you get why I want to put the power bats from Philadelphia into my lineup. With my remaining two offensive spots I decided to go star and scrub with Freddie Freeman and Kevan Smith. Smith doesn’t have a ton of upside but he gets on base and that’s just fine for $2.5k. As for my pitchers, I couldn’t bring myself to come off of Ryu so once again he makes my squad. With only $6.3k left to spend I jumped on the chance to use Sean Manaea against the Texas Rangers. They may have a ton of upside but they’ve also struggle against LHP all year long. In two starts against them this year, Manaea has a line of 10IP/7ER/13K for an average of 14.8 DK points. At his price today, that’s more than a 2x return on your investment. I know that the high volume of runs is worrisome but if he’s giving us the right ROI, I don’t really care where it comes from.
Shockingly, I decided to play it pretty straight with this lineup today. I really like the idea of using the Marlins in Chase Field, especially after they put up a big number on Friday night (without Stanton even doing much of anything). They’ve got enough fire power in their lineup to make them a viable GPP play. I backed them up with a mini-A’s stack because I clearly can’t get enough of the Oakland Athletics. Ideally I would have just gone with two full stacks here but Fantasy Draft makes me use players from three teams so I pulled Marcus Semien for Mike Moustakas. That’s not a terrible swap as Moose pursues 40 HR against a really bad RHP in Dylan Covey. On the mound I was right back at Ryu and decided to pair him with Lance Lynn. Outside of his last start, Lynn has looked really good over his last ten outings (2.85 ERA with a 6.0 K/9). The strikeout numbers aren’t outstanding but I can live with them if he’s not giving up HR (only 5 over his last ten starts) and a ton of runs (see the ERA). He’s pitched well enough against the Pirates this year (19IP/7ER/11K) that I think he warrants a start at his reasonable price. Even if he doesn’t crush value, he’s also not going to torpedo this team either. I am ok with paying for a little bit of stability.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.