The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – September 30, 2017
September 30, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for September 30, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
***Just wanted to throw it out there that I’m going to try to change the format up a little bit for the Longball for the time being. In theory, it will combine my favorite parts of the two formats I’ve used this year: a HuLo chart and then musings on how I construct my sample lineups. The lineups are still not optimal lineups, so don’t mistake them for that, but I think it’s important that you get a closer look into how we can use these HuLo plays to construct the lineups. So instead of spouting off stats that you can easily look up (and don’t worry, I won’t totally avoid stats) I’ll spend my time talking about how to best attack the slate using the HuLo picks. Any feedback is more than welcome.***
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Jake Junis (KC/RHP) vs Arizona Diamondbacks: $7.6k DK/$6.7k FD||Colorado Rockies vs Clayton Kershaw (LAD/LHP)||Fanduel: Jake Junis ($6700), Jorge Alfaro ($3000), Edwin Encarnacion ($4400), Jose Ramirez ($4300), Matt Chapman ($2700), Francisco Lindor ($4500), Nick Williams ($3100), Odubel Herrera ($3000), Jay Bruce ($3100)|
|Andrew Moore (SEA/RHP) @ Los Angeles Angels: $5.6k DK/$5.6k FD||New York Mets @ Henderson Alvarez (PHI/RHP)||Draft Kings : Jake Junis ($7600), Jameson Taillon ($7300), Travis d’Arnaud ($3700), Justin Bour ($4200), DJ LeMahieu ($4100), Nolan Arenado ($4700), Trevor story ($4100), Giancarlo Stanton ($5600), Marcell Ozuna ($4400), Christian Yelich ($4300)|
|Jameson Taillon (PIT/RHP) @ Washington Nationals: $7.3k DK/$7.1k FD||Philadelphia Phillies vs Seth Lugo (NYM/RHP)|
|Chalk Pitchers: Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber, Clayton Kershaw||Chalk Stacks: Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Dodgers, Minnesota Twins, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Miami Marlins|
I want to go big with my pitcher today, Kluber is my main choice, but I just can’t bring myself to pay that much and sacrifice with my lineup. At least, I can’t do that until the lineups are released and some value opens up. I strongly suggest trying to do just that about an hour or so before lock if you are able to sit down and make that work. I have no doubt in my mind that Kluber is going to bring it today with the Indians looking to lock down home field in the AL Playoffs. If you’re not able to be that vigilant, then I think the way to go is to be safe with your bats and find value at pitcher. In my mind, the best value arm on the board is Jake Junis. He’s not a household name but I can tell you that the Royals love this guy and he’s been about their most reliable pitcher all season. Are there some stinkers thrown in there? Of course there are, but that’s why he’s priced at $6.7k and not $9.7k. Over his last seven starts he’s been over 20 FD points five times, with a couple big games thrown in there that would crush value (32, 38, and 44 FD points). It’s great that he has that upside, but we don’t even need that today in order to get a nice return. If Junis can get use 30 FD points he’d be over 4x ROI and that’s more than fine if our lineup pops. What I don’t want, and a big reason why I chose Junis, is for my pitcher to go out and get me a -4 type of score (thanks Dan Straily!). At home this year Junis has been a K per inning guy and has only given up 4 HR in 38 innings of work. His 3.49 ERA is reasonable considering his price tag. I don’t think that we are going to see all the big guns in the lineup for Arizona today as they rest up for the Wild Card game…If I’m going to save up with my pitcher then I’d better darn well go big with my bats. I think I have achieved that with the Cleveland Indians. They have a lot to play for and their bats are hot. Carson Fulmer is terrible so it’s not like we have to take a chance with them against an even halfway decent pitcher. I expect them to score 6+ runs today…Philly has crushed it for me all year and I’m not about to abandon them now. Seth Lugo is merely “meh” and the Phillies bats are continuing to produce. I won’t be using Rhy Hoskins or Aaron Altherr today (I prefer Edwin Encarnacion and Jay Bruce) but I am going back to the well with an Alfaro/Williams/Herrera trio. Keep an eye on the catching situation because it’s quite possible that Alfaro won’t start today after being in the lineup on Friday. Matt Chapman provides a good amount of upside for a cheap price at 3B. I couldn’t spend up like I wanted to, so that’s the best option for me in the value range.
Just like with my Fanduel team, I wanted to go big with pitcher here but just couldn’t bring myself to do it. I feel compelled to use the Marlins today after Don Mattingly same out and said that he’s going to move Stanton up on the lineup to get him some extra AB’s. There’s no reason for rest of their studs to sit so I’m going to go all in with this stack. With Stanton at the top of the lineup that could actually provide more RBI chances for Bour/Ozuna/Yelich. Lucas Sims isn’t scary at all and I think that the Marlins can end up as one of the higher scoring stacks on the day…For those of you that have been with me for the last three years, you know I have the same dilemma every five days: To Kershaw or To Stack Against Kershaw. Today I’m looking to stack against Kershaw. The Rockies are trying to lock down that last playoff spot in the NL, w hile the Dodgers have very less to play for (best record in MLB, but I think they prioritize health over that). I could definitely see Kershaw on a pitch count today, or at the very least Roberts will have a quick hook. We know that COL can hit LHP, and at home they’re even better. You’re not getting a discount on those bats but that actually helps us in a GPP since it’ll pull ownership further off them. I think today is going to be a relatively low scoring day with some funky lineups out there so a game of even 3 or 4 runs could get the job done…We already talked about my acceptance of Jake Junis at one pitcher spot and for the other I’m looking at Jameson Taillon. My reasoning for him is similar to that of Junis. I don’t see the Nationals rolling out their best lineup today as they get ready for the playoffs, and Taillon is coming off one of his better two game stretches in a while (10IP/3ER/10K). He’s priced low enough that another game like those two will return 2x value on his price and that’s going to be just fine. I don’t need 30 DK points from him, just get me to 15 or so and I’m happy. Much like with Junis, I don’t want my pitcher to score negative points and pull down an otherwise good lineup (thanks Dan Straily!).
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.