The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – September 5, 2017
September 4, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for September 5, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
***Just wanted to throw it out there that I’m going to try to change the format up a little bit for the Longball for the time being. In theory, it will combine my favorite parts of the two formats I’ve used this year: a HuLo chart and then musings on how I construct my sample lineups. The lineups are still not optimal lineups, so don’t mistake them for that, but I think it’s important that you get a closer look into how we can use these HuLo plays to construct the lineups. So instead of spouting off stats that you can easily look up (and don’t worry, I won’t totally avoid stats) I’ll spend my time talking about how to best attack the slate using the HuLo picks. Any feedback is more than welcome.***
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Zack Greinke (ARI/RHP) @ Los Angeles Dodgers: $10.4k DK/$9.5k FD||Arizona Diamondbacks @ Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD/LHP)||Fanduel: Jacob DeGrom($10100), Bruce Maxwell ($2600), Matt Olson ($3200), Joe Panik ($2900), David Freese ($2400), Brandon Crawford ($3200), Matt Joyce ($3900), Khris Davis ($3800), Denard Span ($2800)|
|Kyle Hendricks (CHC/RHP) @ Pittsburgh Pirates: $9.8k DK/$9.1k FD||Oakland Athletics @ Garrett Richards (LAA/RHP)||Draft Kings : Jacob DeGrom ($12600), Michael Wacha ($6900), Roberto Perez ($3300), Carlos Santana ($4100), Jonathan Villar ($3900), Jose Ramirez ($5400), Max Moroff ($2200), Brandon Guyer ($3300), Austin Jackson ($4200), Matt Olson ($4100)|
|Justin Verlander (HOU/RHP) @ Seattle Mariners: $11.5k DK/$8.6k FD||Detroit Tigers vs Jason Vargas (KC/LHP)||Fantasy Draft: Kendall Graveman ($14400), Michael Wacha ($13800), Jose Ramirez ($10400), Nolan Arenado ($1000), Joey Votto ($9600), Kris Bryant ($10200), Matt Olson ($8000), Joey Gallo ($7800), Khris Davis ($7800), Mark Reynolds ($8000)|
|Kendall Graveman (OAK/RHP) @ Los Angles Angels: $7.3k DK/$7.1k FD||Toronto Blue Jays @ Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS/LHP)|
|Chalk Pitchers: Jacob DeGrom, Stephen Strasburg, Danny Salazar, Garrett Richards, Michael Wacha||Chalk Stacks: San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies, Houston Astros, New York Mets, Kansas City Royals, Chicago Cubs, Cleveland Indians|
Look, I may have a nice list of HuLo pitchers to choose from but it’s going to be very hard to get me off Jacob DeGrom and Michael Wacha today. I don’t really care that they are both super chalky, the matchups are off the charts good. I started to build this lineup with Wacha but once I saw the prices of the Oakland bats I realized I could move up to DeGrom with relative ease. I was shocked to see him priced at “only” $10.1k. All things considered, that’s a great price. DeGrom has owned the Phillies this year with 24 strikeouts in 19.1 innings of work over three starts, allowing only three total earned runs. I figure I can counteract the ownership of DeGrom with a full A’s stack. The Baby A’s are mashing right now, nobody more than Matt Olson. He is priced really well on FD (compared to his elevated DK price) and that’s the key to this entire lineup. Paying so little for him and Maxwell allowed me to overpay for Khris Davis and Matt Joyce with little remorse. I like Oakland a lot today against Garrett Richards. He’s making his first start since April 5 and he’s always been inconsistent anyway. I’ll take the hot bats over the rusty pitcher any day. I tried to figure out another full stack to use with Oakland but nothing really worked for me. Instead I went three deep with the Giants at Coors. Tyler Chatwood is awful in the Rockies so I have little fear of using a bad offense. Because SF is so bad, we don’t have the usual price increase that we so often see for teams playing in Colorado. I don’t like any of the 3B for SF so I went with David Freese who is swinging a hot bat. I don’t love the Pirates today but they do offer some value across the sites that I’ll be taking advantage of.
Remember when I said I liked DeGrom and Wacha? Well, this was my chance to use both of them in the same lineup. Wacha is so inexpensive that using him makes DeGrom’s high price much more bearable. As for Wacha, he’s been really bad on the road this year (5.16 ERA) but this isn’t your ordinary road game. This is a road game in the pitcher’s haven against a terrible offense. If Wacha can’t pull it together in this start, then he’s pretty much toast. Lost in the high ERA is the fact that Wacha is striking out nearly a batter per inning despite the runs given up. Wacha was never a strikeout pitcher so this is a very promising sign. Few offenses strike out more against RHP than the Padres (28% K-rate with a league worst .237 BA). I’m very confident in this play today. With my pitchers not killing my salary cap, I was able to go with a full five player Cleveland Indians stack. They have won 12 straight games and they hit LHP very well. David Holmberg is not a lefty that I’m too worried about. I like that I can get some value at catcher (whomever it is that starts for CLE) and with Brandon Guyer. He should be good to go today and despite his lack of power lately, he’s still hitting the ball well with a batting average over .300 in his last ten games. I decided that stacking the last three spots in my lineup wasn’t a great move, since there was a lack of strong stacking candidates, so I mixed and matched those spots with a couple of hot bats (Jonathan Villar/Matt Olson) and a super duper punt play that looked good enough yesterday to earn another start (Max Moroff). That Moroff play, like Freese on FD, is not one that I targeted but he gives enough value that I’m willing to take the shot and save the money at my SS spot.
So as to not be too boring, I decided that this was a good spot to spend down on pitcher and load up with my bats. Along with a cheap Wacha, I decided to use Kendall Graveman in my SP2 slot. He has been hit well by the Angels but he’s also striking out nearly a batter per inning against LA this year as well. I’m going to go with the theory that the Angels can’t have two big games in a row to boost my confidence in Graveman. Also, he’s so cheap that I don’t need a great start for him to return value. Using two value pitchers allowed me to attack to big Rockies bats, Kris Bryant, an Oakland mini-stack, and a pair of Joeys (Votto and Gallo). There’s a ton of upside with this lineup, so if the pitchers can do half decently I should be in good shape.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.