The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – September 6, 2017 September 5, 2017  |  Doug Shain


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Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for September 6, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.

Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.

For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.

I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.

One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.

***Just wanted to throw it out there that I’m going to try to change the format up a little bit for the Longball for the time being. In theory, it will combine my favorite parts of the two formats I’ve used this year: a HuLo chart and then musings on how I construct my sample lineups. The lineups are still not optimal lineups, so don’t mistake them for that, but I think it’s important that you get a closer look into how we can use these HuLo plays to construct the lineups. So instead of spouting off stats that you can easily look up (and don’t worry, I won’t totally avoid stats) I’ll spend my time talking about how to best attack the slate using the HuLo picks. Any feedback is more than welcome.***

Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!

HuLo PitchersHuLo StacksSample Lineups
Gerrit Cole (PIT/RHP) vs Chicago Cubs: $9.5k DK/$8.7k FDSeattle Mariners vs Lance McCullers (HOU/RHP)Fanduel: Gerrit Cole ($8700), Buster Posey ($4000), Yonder Alonso ($3300), Robinson Cano ($3100), Kyle Seager ($3200), Jean Segura ($3000), Alex Presley ($2500), Andrew Benintendi ($4000), Jackie Bradley Jr ($3100)
Dinelson Lamet (SD/RHP) vs St Louis Cardinals: $8.5k DK/$8.4k FDTexas Rangers @ Julio Teheran (ATL/RHP)Draft Kings : Doug Fister ($7600), Gerrit Cole ($9500), Buster Posey ($4200), Greg Bird ($3200), Rougned Odor ($3500), Joey Gallo ($4300), Didi Gregorius ($4100), Nomar Mazara ($4400), Aaron Judge ($4900), Shin-Soo Choo ($4200)
Matt Harvey (NYM/RHP) vs Philadelphia Phillies: $6.3K DK/$6.3k FDArizona Diamondbacks @ Kenta Maeda (LAD/RHP)Fantasy Draft: Dinelson Lamet ($16400), Doug Fister ($15200), Jose Ramirez ($10800), Trea Turner ($9600), Anthony Rendon ($9000), Cody Bellinger ($9900), Joey Gallo ($8400), Lonnie Chisenhall ($8400), Jeimer Candelario ($6000), Brandon Nimmo ($6300)
Doug Fister (BOS/RHP) vs Toronto Blue Jays: $7.6k DK/$7.8k FDNew York Mets vs Nick Pivetta (PHI/RHP)
Chalk Pitchers: Carlos Carrasco, Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray, Gio GonzalezChalk Stacks: Houston Astros, San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies, Cleveland Indians, Boston Red Sox, Washington Nationals

Fanduel:

                I was somewhat lukewarm on the Gerrit Cole early in my research today but the more I looked at him the more I thought that he would make for a great GPP play. There are a few factors that will keep his ownership levels down: he’s facing a good Cubs offense and the opposing pitcher (Jose Quintana) should be pretty chalky. Even with those two factors in place I wasn’t totally sold on Cole because the matchup does scare me a little. Then I looked at his numbers against the Cubs this year (13IP/13K/2ER in two starts). Bingo! I was sold. You’re giving me a K per inning guy with a good history against his opponent and a low ownership at a price I can live with? That’s exactly the kind of player I want on my GPP roster. As much as I love him on DK (read below), I love him even more on FD because of his $8.7k price tag. That’s easily $500 too low, which allowed me to get a lineup I was very comfortable with. I played around with a couple of Coors stacks and an Arizona stack but none of that really fit for what I wanted to do today. I can’t fade Buster Posey against a lefty in Coors so he stayed in my lineup. Boston is a team I wanted to target against Joe Biagini. He’s nothing special and Boston has faced him a few times already this year. They should have a good read on him. I considered a full stack with Moreland and Devers along with Bennie Biceps and JBJ but in the end that money just didn’t work out for me. I was still looking for a team to stack when I came across the prices for the Mariners. I know that they’re kind of cold right now but Lance McCullers is coming back off an injury and I love targeting stacks against pitchers in this exact situation. Prior to his time on the DL, McCullers hadn’t made it out of the fifth inning in four straight starts (9.64 ERA). Sure, some of that struggle can be attributed to his injury but I’m willing to take a shot that he’s not going to magically find his groove so quickly. It’s definitely a risky proposition but the power is surely there to take advantage if McCullers continues to struggle.

 

 

DraftKings:

You already read about my love for Cole, but just know that I like him on DK even though is price tag is not quite the same level of value as it is on FD. I still expect the ownership to be low so I’m ok with paying up a little bit in this case. My SP2 was a shockingly easy pick; I was on Doug Fister from jump today. He’s been pitching well lately (25IP/4ER/18K over his last three starts) and he’s facing a Blue Jays roster that is banged up and pretty poor against RHP. Fister has struggled against Boston a little this year but that was before this recent surge. I love his price and I don’t think people are on to him quite yet. Even if they are, I’m ok competing for ownership on a $7.6k guy. What I love about this pitching combination is that it let me fit in my favorite stack of the day, the Texas Rangers. Julio Teheran is terrible at home and the new field in the ATL is proving to be a very hitter friendly park. As always with Texas you run the risk of them striking out 15 times but the power is just so immense that I have to jump on them. Doing this still left me room for a three man Yankees stack against Kevin Gausman. He hasn’t allowed a run in either of his last two starts but the Yankees have crushed him this year (18 ER and 16 BB in 19.1 innings over four starts). I’m not investing too heavily (and I would have loved to have had room for Starlin Castro) but to be able to fit in the power potential of Judge and Gregorius is awesome. I’m just hoping that Greg Bird gets the start so I can keep Buster Posey in at catcher. If he doesn’t, then I’ll probably pivot to Matt Holliday and Salvador Perez.

 

 

Fantasy Draft:

Once again I’m back to Fister since I totally believe in him for some odd reason. I’m pairing him with Dinelson Lamet, a personal favorite of mine. He’s been a little out of control with his walks over his last three starts (16.2IP/12BB) but other than that he’s going what you’d expect him to do (5ER/23K in those same 16.2IP). At some point the walks are going to catch up but I don’t think that’s tonight against the Cardinals in Petco. He’s a run and a half better at home this year, and his walk rate is down at home as well (3.1 BB/9 vs 5.0 BB/9 on the road). I like him to return a nice value tonight (and should probably have more exposure to him across the other sites now that I’m reading what I just wrote; got to remember that these are sample lineups, not optimal lineups). I decided against stacking any one team and instead just loaded up on the biggest bats of the slate. Once I did that, I had just enough room for two of my favorite value plays of the day. Jeimer Candelario has been playing shockingly well lately and he has a good matchup against Jason Hammel. Brandno Nimmo might be the only healthy bat in the Mets OF so he’s going to get the at bats against Nick Pivetta. He may strike out three times but he also could grab a few hits with Pivetta being wildly inconsistent. For $6.3k, that’s a perfectly acceptable range of outcomes.

 

Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.

Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.

 

Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.

Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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