The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – September 7, 2017
September 6, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for September 7, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
***Just wanted to throw it out there that I’m going to try to change the format up a little bit for the Longball for the time being. In theory, it will combine my favorite parts of the two formats I’ve used this year: a HuLo chart and then musings on how I construct my sample lineups. The lineups are still not optimal lineups, so don’t mistake them for that, but I think it’s important that you get a closer look into how we can use these HuLo plays to construct the lineups. So instead of spouting off stats that you can easily look up (and don’t worry, I won’t totally avoid stats) I’ll spend my time talking about how to best attack the slate using the HuLo picks. Any feedback is more than welcome.***
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Aaron Nola (PHI/RHP) @ Washington Nationals: $8.5k DK/$8.4k FD||Pittsburgh Pirates vs Jon Lester (CHC/LHP)||Fanduel: Dan Straily ($7500), JT Realmuto ($2600), Joey Votto ($4400), Scooter Gennett ($3600), Asdrubal Cabrera ($3200), JP Crawford ($2000), Giancarlo Stanton ($4700), Marcell Ozuna ($4000), Scott Schebler ($3000)|
|Dan Straily (MIA/RHP) @ Atlanta Braves: $8.1k DK/$7.5k FD||St Louis Cardinals @ Clayton Richard (SD/LHP)||Draft Kings : Kyle Gibson ($7500), Dan Straily ($8100), Yan Gomes ($3500), Carlos Santana ($4300), Brian Dozier ($4700), Eduardo Escobar ($3700), Jorge Polanco ($4400), Max Kepler ($3700), Byron Buxton ($5200), Cody Bellinger ($4700)|
|Kyle Gibson (MIN/RHP) @ Kansas City Royals: $7.5k DK/$7.2k FD||Philadelphia Phillies @ Tanner Roark (WSH/RHP||Fantasy Draft: Clayton Kershaw ($25600), Corey Kluber ($25500), David Freese ($6900), Max Moroff ($5600), Cesar Hernandez ($7200), Andrew McCutchen ($7500), Nick Williams ($5200), JP Crawford ($5200), Odubel Herrera ($7200), Ozzie Albies ($4100)|
|Chalk Pitchers: Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber, Lance Lynn, Jon Lester, Tanner Roark||Chalk Stacks: Chicago Cubs, Cleveland Indians, Miami Marlins, Cincinnati Reds, Minnesota Twins|
The single hardest decision that I had to make for this entire slate, on either site, was Dan Straily or Kyle Gibson for my FD pitcher. I love both of these guys so much today. Straily is incredibly frustrating to own but he’s killed the Braves this year. In three starts he’s produced a line of 17IP/4ER/20K/3BB. That’s high end stuff. His price is very reasonable considering his upside. On the other side of the coin is Kyle Gibson. I never in a million years thought I’d be on this guy at any point this year, let alone in two straight starts. Something has clicked in Gibson and he’s finally pitching like the pitcher we all hoped he would be. His last three games have been incredible given his price and expectations. Over that time he’s gone 19.2IP/20K/3ER with a 3-0 record. That’s an average of 46+ FD points per start. At his $7.2k price tag, that’s a sick return on his price (over 6x). When all was said and done, I just think that I trust Straily slightly more than I do Gibson because it seems as if the Royals may have found their bats a little bit. If I were to have ten lineups today, I’d own each of them on 50% of my teams. That’s how close this decision was. Either of the pitchers allowed me to go out and get some of the bats that I covet today, and not of the HuLo variety, because of their low price and ownership combination. The two teams that fit best here were the Marlins against Sean Newcomb and the Reds against Matt Harvey. The potential is there for these two stacks to combine for 5 HR. I went three deep on each stack for a variety of reasons. With Miami it was that I can’t use four of their bats if I use Straily at pitcher (this would be a reason to use Gibson if there was a fourth bat I thought would do well, but I don’t). The Reds are always a team to target because of their power potential but today is extra special since they are facing the dumpster fire that is Matt Harvey. Injured, not injured, it doesn’t really matter. Harvey is a human batting practice machine right now. I’d have had four Reds in my lineup if I could have afford them. Alas, I could only fit in the three middle of the order lefties in Duvall, Gennett, and Schebler. JP Crawford is a favorite punt play for me today because it’s not like the Phillies brought him up to sit him. At min price, he allows me to do a long with this roster. Asdrubal Cabrera isn’t a huge target for me but he’s the best of a weak 3B lot today. If you wanted to use David Freese or Yandy Diaz instead, I’m good with that.
Thanks, DraftKings! I’m very happy that I don’t have to choose between Gibson and Straily on your site. I love that I get to take my two favorite pitchers for a combined $15.6K while other people are spending $13.3 and $13.1 on only Kershaw or Kluber. I’d rather have some bats today than ride the chalk that hard at pitcher. Once again I don’t have to worry about HuLo stacks since my pitchers should be lower owned, so I’m firing away at a hot Twins offense backed up by an Indians mini-stack. The Twins are a bit pricey but they are facing Sam Gaviglio tonight, a pitcher they hit 3 HR off of in 5.1 innings the only time they met this year. In general, Sam Gaviglio is a pitcher I want to target; more so when he’s facing a team against whom he struggled. It was hard to not include Eddie Rosario in this lineup, but had I done that I wouldn’t have been able to afford Santana and Bellinger. I suppose Bellinger is a bit of a luxury on this team but I like the matchup against Jon Gray quite a bit and would appreciate having that luxury on my team. I’m legitimately giddy thinking about what the Twins are going to do tonight. Let’s also not leave out Carlos Santana and Yan Gomes. They’ve been beasts (relatively speaking) during the current 14 game winning streak for the Tribe with a combined 6 HR. I think they get to Rondon early in this game with his wildness overcoming him. This lineup a HuLo Special written all over it.
Ok folks, the moment you’ve been waiting for has arrived. This is the wild and wacky Fantasy Draft lineup. Today I decided to see what I could do if I stuck to my guns and paid ALL THE WAY up for a Kershaw and Kluber partnership. Honestly, I don’t think I did half bad. I already liked the Phillies and Pirates today so to see them so well priced was a huge boost to morale. Pittsburgh is a plucky offense and they’ve gotten to Lester a little already this year (13.1IP/9ER/8K/7BB with 4 HR allowed). We can’t get the biggest bat (Josh Bell) into this lineup but otherwise I’m content with Cutch, Freese, and Max Moroff. I’m confident that Moroff will be in the lineup today after his recent hot streak. The Phillies are interesting against Tanner Roark because their best hitters are the plucky kind of guys that don’t need power to make fantasy points (yes, I used plucky twice. I have a limited vocabulary). The trio of Nick Williams, Odubel Herrera, and Cesar Hernandez can all run and that leads to SB and R; both valuable in DFS. As for JP Crawford, read above why I like him today. Ozzie Albies is the new full time 2B for the Braves and he hits second in the lineup. I know that I like Straily today, but at $4.1k Albies doesn’t need to ruin Straily’s day to return value.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.